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david nicholson says
Wednesday Night Salon # 968
the Summons
20 Sept. 2000 sooncome
This Wednesday Dr. Hans Black of Interinvest will join us along with his "Man in London", Malcolm Thomas. Given the wide range of Hans' interests and his mandate of global asset allocation, we can promise a thoroughly international geopolitical discussion - a refreshing change from the all-consuming local political issues of the last few days' news.
... be sure to have your homework done!
Some of this Wednesday-night's players
Dr. Hans Black Interinvest CEO
Do visit our
Bermuda Site
Wednesday, September 20, 2000
Potash Corp (POT - TSE, $78.25) Recommendation: 2-Buy Target: $95.00 Cdn
Potash Corp announced that third quarter earnings would be about $0.30 per share higher than the $0.41 per share forecasted by industry analysts. A high gas cost hedging program, higher nitrogen prices, and higher than expected potash sales volumes were reasons cited for the improved earnings forecast. Despite the more positive outlook for Potash, we have not increase our 1or 2-year target prices of $95.00 and $110.00 per share, respectively. Our 2001 target price is based on 19 times 2001-2002 averaged earnings estimates of U$3.75, which is biased higher if prevailing conditions prove sustainable. - S. Kanes
We remember Interinvest bot POT at lower than to-day and sold it at twice that value. Would they do that again? [chart POT nyse]
September 5, 2000, 4:00 a.m. PT
WASHINGTON--As the U.S. presidential candidates gear up for the final laps of
their respective campaigns, Silicon Valley and other technology hotbeds will be
watching closely as Vice President Al Gore and Texas Gov. George W. Bush flesh
out their positions on technology issues.
the US November Race to see candidate positions on each issue.
Smart Money
this 968th Wednesday-Night
Diana T. Nicholson
We Will Wish Diana
a very Happy Birthday
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Me Julius Grey
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Rex Murphy on the Politics: watching the same old play? July 13, 2000 How far have we come?
Wednesday Night #968
September 20, 2000
PROLOGUE
The eve of the Equinox brought several new faces and several infrequent visitors notably Malcolm Thomas in town from London, David and Suzanne Notman from Bermuda, Donald Barwick and Sonny Mass (aka the Honourable Mr. Justice Israel Mass of the Quebec Superior Court). The new faces included Carol Cohen, also an Honourable Justice of the Superior Court and well known for the judgment she rendered on the rights of patients to Medicare-funded treatment in the U.S. and
Gilles Thérien, a former Montrealer now living in Vancouver. Gilles hopes to set up a Wednesday Night clone in Vancouver and was experiencing his first Salon following some lengthy e-mail and telephone exchanges with Diana and David.
THE PETROLEUM PARADOX:
The price of oil keeps increasing, natural gas which costs little to produce and less than oil to transport, rises with increasing petroleum price. These relatively high prices appear to have very little impact on the North American economy beyond vocal complaints emanating from the driving community. Inflation is manageable. The low liquidity level of the North American consumer might have been expected to have a measurable effect on the economy, but so far this has not happened. European governments have been reducing taxes or offering rebates to selective segments of the transportation sector. Britain, where increased petroleum prices are preprogrammed and have reached alarming proportions have the potential for possibly bringing down the Blair government, may also cause enormous difficulties for Al Gore following the United States presidential election.
Mon Oct 16, 2000 CBC Canadians look for alternative energy Audio/Video
(Editor's note: the assumption that this will be Al Gore's problem represents an interesting change in Wednesday Night's prevailing view of only two months ago.)
Wednesday Nighters were offered some explanation for this apparent paradox. The actual price of oil is not as outrageous as it appears, having come off a low due to a decrease in price following the Asian crisis. Asia is very vulnerable, accounting for more than forty percent of the increase in oil consumption in the last eight years. North American refineries have not been buying oil, mistakenly anticipating a decrease in price which never came. They are currently operating at ninety-six percent capacity in an attempt to catch up.
Proposed solutions could well prove counter-productive. Lifting sanctions on Iraq would not produce more oil. Iraq is currently producing at full capacity. Tax decreases would very likely be offset by higher prices. High petroleum prices invariably stimulate exploration and greater supply. Ultimately prices will fall and talk of alternative fuels will again be moved to the back burner, as it were. When this happens, will the people who have complained about the temporary increases be prepared to give up their windfall? Not very likely! As much as it hurts, many Canadians are prepared to pay about $1.50 for half a litre of fresh bottled water, a commodity that just flows freely from the ground in most of this country.
ISSUES OF ETHICS
The sale of human parts has always been controversial, yet even when the ultimate recipient of semen, a transplant, or blood product pays nothing, there is a cost involved. Unless labour and supplies are donated, someone profits from the transaction.
For the first time ever, a generation of human beings is being forced to make moral decisions that will set the unalterable ground rules for the future. With the decline of religious and moral authority, the courts are being asked to set precedent for moral issues to which there is neither legal framework nor training. Young children, the decision makers of the future, are more influenced by television and the Internet than they are by their parents and older generations. It is they, who grow up and set future moral standards. The evolution from sperm donation to in vitro fertilization to egg donation to cloning has led to the questionably moral issue of designer children. Current North American affluence has enabled parents to plan children who are beautiful, intelligent or look alike. Accounts exist of payments of up to one hundred and fifty thousand dollars for the possibility of having a designer child. O tempora! O mores!
THE CANADIAN ECONOMY
Will Canada ever catch up to the more affluent world economies? For the moment, we are doing very well. With strong annual growth, low inflation, low interest rates, record corporate profits, the future looks very rosy indeed. The Canadian stock market has outperformed the rest of the world. Exports to the United States are rising. We have repaid nineteen billion dollars of our national debt. We are operating at 88% capacity. The only weak spot in the economy is in the housing sector. The fundamentals remain very strong.
Our dollar is undervalued and will probably remain so for some time. With the exception of oil, the price of commodities has not kept pace with the rest of the economy. Foreign investment in Canada has been matched by Canadian investment in foreign countries. Low interest rates lessen the attraction of foreign currency to Canada. There is a downside however. With an aging population, costs of the Canadian safety net will increase substantially. High taxes and huge debt make it impossible for us to match the United States target of zero debt by 2012, thus ensuring continuing relatively higher tax rates here.
QUOTE OF THE EVENING;
"It's a murky line between the letter of the law and moral standards. They (moral issues) are brought before the court because people don't know where else to go."
Notes by Herbert Bercovitz, Sculptor
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
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