Dr. Antal Deutsch is back in town and his presence always guarantees a stimulating and irreverent discussion.
We will also be celebrating the graduation of three young friends from the Class 2000 IATA Concordia Aviation MBA programme: René Armas, David Lukalo and Sonia Singh. David's wife, Susan, an advisor on African affairs to French oil interests will be with us.
With concentration on Pierre Trudeau's death and funeral last week, there has been little time to look at the Euro and the effect of the Danish vote - our economists should have something to say.
We will no doubt look at the recent developments in Yugoslavia, and with Misha's guidance, determine what will happen next.... see also news from Macedonia
The U.S. Presidential race remains on the agenda through the first week in November.Time say Dead heat?
As always, lots to talk about and we look forward to your informed opinions....
Happy Thanksgiving to one and all ...
Belgrade Zeljko Safar AP |
'Good evening, liberated Serbia'
Parliament seized; Milosevic on ropes ...BELGRADE - Slobodan Milosevic's 13-year grip on power appears to
be broken today after hundreds of thousands of people seized the
federal parliament and state-controlled media in a mass uprising
against the Yugoslav President.
An estimated 300,000 opposition supporters brushed aside security
forces yesterday afternoon and poured into Belgrade to force the
Yugoslav strongman to concede he had lost last month's presidential
vote. A peaceful vigil outside the national parliament building erupted
into a melee of tear gas, rioting and gunfire that spread through the
Serb capital.
October 5,2000 UPDate
As protestors massed on the streets of Belgrade, one of the young
people interviewed in the documentary sent us an e-mail about the
events. E-mail from Belgrade.
Wednesday Night Salon #971
11 October 2000
PROLOGUE
Tony Deutsch, briefly home from his endeavors in Hungary, introduced his wife Hanna, an economist in her own right and one who specializes in such socio-economic issues as healthcare costs.
The Concordia 1999-2000 Aviation MBA (AMBA) Class 2000 was well represented. In addition to René Armas from Venezuela (Class President), David Lukalo from Kenya and Sonia Singh from Air India, all well-known to Wednesday Night, Arthur Mvundura (Zimbabwe), Alain Paradis (Montreal - Bombardier) and Jean Ruiz from Peru were welcome additions, along with David's wife, Susan who came from Brussels for the graduation events.
The in-coming AMBA Class of 2000-2001 was represented by Robert Rennert, Class President, who will, we hope continue the tradition of representing the future leaders of the aviation industry at Wednesday Night.
MEDIA-FILTERED PERCEPTIONS
How do short news clips on CNN, CBS, NBC, CTV, CBC or other television networks, accurately reflect world events? Do daily newspapers report any more accurately? How does the world view the bombing of churches in Québec, if it is reported at all? Is Montreal still a good place to visit? Do Mexicans view their country in the same light as we do based on what we see on television? Do we really know how Canada thinks in between elections?
Please try our
click for quote window & menu.
then if it gets lost click PopQuote... in Windows 'Quick Launch' bar
Zimbabweans riot over rising food prices
Tue Oct 17, 2000 police in Zimbabwe fired tear
gas... annual consumer
price inflation is running at 62 per cent and
over half the nation's workforce is
unemployed.
THE YUGOSLAV PRESIDENCY
We in Western Europe and North America view with satisfaction news reports of the apparent victory of Kostunica over Milosevic in Yugoslavia. Democracy has at last prevailed. Democracy, yes, but Milosevic still maintains the support of thirty-five percent of the electorate - not a majority but certainly a plurality, taking into account the fact that the remaining sixty-five percent is split between eight parties. Kostunica has been acknowledged as president, but in that position has very little executive power. Only following the forthcoming December 19th elections will we know the makeup of the Yugoslav parliament. Although Milosevic will not be running, his party will be represented. The West may be once again missing the boat by not immediately lifting economic sanctions, but doing it piecemeal, thereby helping determine to what extent the thirty-five percent support of Milosevic's party will be reduced.
KOSTUNICA DEBUTS ON WORLD DIPLOMATIC STAGE
Yugoslavia's new president, Vojislav Kostunica, met leaders of the
European Union in France Saturday, reassuring them that his predecessor,
Slobodan Milosevic, "has no political future."
[FULL STORY] October 16, 2000
KENYA
News reports indicate a high degree of corruption and violence in Kenya, but although there is still harassment of people who speak out against the system, police action is not as severe as it once was, things are evolving, and to expatriate Kenyans, it is still home. Through easier communication, more people are aware of what their future could be. Kenya's political development has been great influenced by its geography and the tumultuous events in its neighboring countries; it remains, however, one of the most important and influential economies in Africa.
INDIA
News reports of impending conflict and possible nuclear war between India and Pakistan are frightening, yet puzzling. Depicting this news as a sort of religious conflict ignores the fact that there are more Muslims living peacefully in India than in Pakistan, attempting to settle differences with Pakistan peacefully. Child Labour is a much-misunderstood issue - many of the children who work do so in order to contribute essential income to their families and in the context of the entire family being present in the vicinity. However is the "family" their own or one to which they have been indentured?
QUÉBEC
Back home, it is difficult to explain Québec's insistence on spending large amounts of money on a semiconductor plant with a dubious future, particularly with the history of SIDBEC still fresh in our minds. Politically it makes more sense to attract international investments, create a significant numbers of jobs and satisfy the aspirations of a community looking for industrial investment. The government receives kudos from organized labor for having increased their membership, hence revenue. The glow should last until at least after the next election.
THE EURO
The Euro is flagging in value and may possibly be heading the way of the collapse of the gold standard in 1939. Some member nations have a history of being chronic inflators, possibly hastening or even causing the ultimate demise of the Euro. The recent rejection vote in Denmark was not however, brought about through a deep understanding of the situation, but rather by a popular perception that somehow the Danes' pension plan would be adversely affected.
THE FEDERAL SURPLUS
Canadians look upon the federal surplus as an opportunity for debt reduction and increased services from the Government of Canada. The Minister of Finance, Mr. Martin, apparently has a low-key but effective other agenda, namely the subtle rapid down payment of debt. Objectively, this is the way to go in a booming economy. With each billion dollars of debt paid down, annual interest payments decrease by close to one hundred million. Taxpayers, preferring immediate satisfaction, would prefer cuts in personal income tax combined with increases in the corporate rate. With ever-increasing cross-border ownership and with the ease of movement of money internationally, this is a non-starter. Decreasing corporate tax rates has resulted in a spate of smaller businesses. Significant decrease in personal income tax might very well prove inflationary.
Dean Lebaron |
Wednesday - October 11 - Voodoo, Doodoo Economics
RealVideo
link: Allen Sloan's Newsweek article on the Surplus
Fantasy in the U.S.A.
QUOTES OF THE EVENING
- "All economic cycles so far have had the characteristic of coming to a peak and then turning downward."
On the logic of politics:
- "A bridge is worth two elections. The local politician is only interested in what it brings to his constituency"
On Canada's unbudgeted surplus:
- "There is a subtle repayment of debt."
- "What is the capacity of the environment to maintain growth?"
- "You have to take into account the ability of corporations to move money around."
On the recent Yugoslav Elections:
- "He (Slobodan Milosevic) is still fighting but in a much more sophisticated way ... There have been many rats that have left the ship but not the big ones."
- "Kosovo will stay around like Palestine. It will last for thirty or forty years. We can only hope for the international community to contain the two communities until the situation is eventually solved."
- "We in North America tend to see changes in a micro way."
- "Indians do not look for war with Pakistan, but we failed to convince our neighbors that we are seeking peaceful solutions. Perhaps we should have reached out more."
Notes by Herbert Bercovitz, Sculptor
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
Rex Murphy's analysis and comment on Stockwell Day and his appearance in a wetsuit was superb. While Day wanted the press to see his arrival on a JetSki, most of them focussed on his departure, which gave a rear end view complete with a plume of water!
Sept. 12, 2000 "clck for AV of Rex Murphy "
Available on Real Video
With Day moving into Stornaway and making most of the political gains, there should be a more meaningful public debate. Since there is such diversity among the opposition parties, is there any chance of the consolidated opposition to oust the Liberals? There is reason to believe that Reform can seriously damage the Liberals and this should be cause for concern. It will be interesting to see how Day performs in Parliament and how the Canadian public reacts - while a number of Wednesday Nighters believe that there is little substance, will the voters realize that "deep down he is shallow"?
MONTREAL MUNICIPAL REORGANIZATION
Louis Bernard, the Québec civil servant charged with sorting out the municipal reorganization
Peter Trent has termed this idea Machiavellian, in that cities such as Westmount will be allowed to keep their charter, while Mayor Bourque will be able to say that Montreal is "One Island - One City", with nine groupings or "burroughs (burrows"?). Our Mayor would prefer a clear battle over the downloading and the amalgamation issue. If the new proposal goes through there would be FIVE levels of government.
Québec City seems to be concerned that the municipalities (led by Westmount) may win the court case on downloading and is making overtures to settle out of court. Bernard Landry has stated that he will fund the municipalities that drop their lawsuits.
notes for early October 2000
Pease note our sell on NT September
at $84 click for chart ...y
Rex Murphy on the Politics: watching the same old play? July 13, 2000 How far have we come?
WASHINGTON--As the U.S. presidential candidates gear up for the final laps of
their respective campaigns, Silicon Valley and other technology hotbeds will be
watching closely as Vice President Al Gore and Texas Gov. George W. Bush flesh
out their positions on technology issues.
the US November Race to see candidate positions on each issue.
George Bush vs Al Gore
Do visit our Bermuda Site new
Congratulations to our Peter Trent who courageously - and wisely - led the way on the municipal referendum question. Now the other mayors have followed his example and the suburbs, speaking with one voice, may be heard. Peter will be with us later in the evening.
So, Health, the Economy, a Healthy Economy, Healthy Travel and many healthy cities... are on the menu for tomorrow evening. It should be a fascinating one.
Benard Landry & JAY BRYAN on
The Mosel Vitelic Inc. Taiwanese Memory Chip Plant?
$3-billion factory 1,500 jobs and 6,500 indirect jobs
But what if, in the next down draft, they fail... is the risk too high?
David and Diana Nicholson
The People and Ideas that Make Modern Investment The Ultimate Investor a book writen by many, on the web. It was produced by Dean Lebaron and Romesh Vaitilingam and includes BCA Martin Barnes with the chaper on International Money
From time to time we will link to Dean Lebaron's one min. tv video clips. 
To view these videos, you'll need RealPlayer.
Click here to download the latest version
Thursday - September 7 - The Chinese Wall
Between Investment Research and Investment Banking
RealVideo
link: BostonGlobe Article
Gas Price Watch.com
One of the best ideas at Computerfest was the new web site Gas Price Watch.com. It's the creation of a local group of techies in Dayton whOWN to use the Internet to bring some market sanity to gasoline prices. The site now has over 55,000 gas stations in their database, and they're recruiting an army of civilian spotters to input local gas prices onto their web site. Their goal is to save consumers at least a billion dollars in gasoline costs.
see the invation to # 903 in the Park
#903 June 23 with David & Terry Jones in the park
link to play No-Tavern story by Wayne Larsen le Maire Prud'homme, Saint Jean Baptiste, Bill Brownstein story, John and Holly Jonas, Eleanor Gribble François Charbonneau water AquaLandsis, Pierre D'Amour one currency dollar, U.S. Presidential, Marie & Mascot See W-N on One dollar in NA & US»Cdn chart
City hall has become an evening telephone phone-out centre. Volunteers to help with the campaign are being sought and a hot line is in place (989-5236).
Objective is to prepare for a referendum in October.
click for
Mayor Trent's Letter to Westmount with updates Westmounters Must See
|
Westmount News
Council of September 5, 2000
Satellite dishes: Council is intending to allow small satellite dishes to be installed without need of special permit. A by-law has been introduced which would permit dishes that are less than 18 inches diameter, are not visible from the street, located on a flat roof, a balcony floor or at the rear, and have the owners' consent. The proposal also allows only one of the larger dishes than can be installed per site. These steps will involve zoning changes and a consultation meeting will be held on October 5 before the regular council meeting.
Library terminals: The old GEAC terminals are being replaced by computers and the existing equipment upgraded to give new services. Cost: $6,000.
Annexation: the mayor described commissioner Louis Bernard's proposals for redefining Montreal island into boroughs as "totally unacceptable". He was working on a committee of suburban mayors that was preparing an alternative plan.
Thank you Don Wedge
