Wednesday Night Salon #973
25th October 2000
YUGOSLAVIA
Recent developments in the Balkans include the suggestion that Crown Prince Alexander of Yugoslavia be re-instated in Belgrade. The informed view, however is that the Crown Prince, although sincere, is a "lightweight and has little to offer". Furthermore, the Crown Prince has not lived in his country, does not speak Serbian well and is married to a German. While 15% might be in favour, Yugoslavs generally view monarchies as decadent.
A much more serious concern is the recommendation of the Group of Experts that Kosovo become independent. It is premature, and would be like rubbing salt in a wound. The result would be a bloodletting (again!). Bernard Kuchner will be leaving soon (his name has been suggested as the new UN High Commissioner for Refugees, but in any vent, he has been far too committed to the Albanians and not even-handed vis-à-vis the Serbs.
Misha Crnobrnja will soon be publishing a book on this topic. Meanwhile, he is leaving soon for the Balkans and Romania He has also been asked by CIDA to help plan the Canadian strategy vis-à-vis Yugoslavia and to prepare for a donors' conference.
MEGA MONTREAL
A referendum will be held on November 19th, in Westmount. The slogan? "Hands Off My City/Ne touchez pas à ma ville". A yellow & white on black lapel pin was introduced to Wednesday Night and met with high praise. It is hoped that several other municipalities will follow suit.
Today, representatives of the major Québec City suburbs have attacked the BQ for not coming to the defense of the individual municipalities in their struggle against assimilation by Québec.
Unfortunately a referendum has no weight in law (except for those on zoning), but nonetheless the City of Westmount is hoping for a very large turnout to add weight (moral suasion) to the opposition. In Council's view, the referendum is a didactic exercise that will help the people and the politicians understand and consider the issues.
Bernard writes well, but has little or no understanding of how municipalities function. His proposal for the 36 arrondisments, 64 councilors and 1 mayor is pretty close to Bourque's "One Island - One City". The major portion of all revenues would be collected by Montreal. In general taxes will go up and levels of service will go down. There will be a larger bureaucracy and the credit rating for the new city structure will be reduced below the very high rating of Westmount; this alone will result in higher interest payment on the city debt, leading to higher taxes.
There is no financial analysis in the Bernard report of the impact of the proposed changes.
The Quebec government is trying to rush through legislation before Christmas, in the hope that if there is a provincial election, the change will be irreversible. Why is the PQ so committed to this change? Very few people want it. Jean Charest has stated that he will reverse the law, if he is voted into power. Even the BQ are trying to send a message to Bouchard that there is a lack of democratic process in this issue. The best guess is that the PQ wants to be perceived as doing something, but will implement the Bernard Report without understanding its impact.
A lawsuit against the proposed municipal changes should be launched, but would most likely fail. Reversal might be possible but would cost a lot. One possibility would be to have the case in court and drag out the process for 2 years, by which time there has to be a provincial election.
How is it that Mayor Bourque - no great favorite of the Québec government - appears to have pulled off his vision for an integrated Montreal? Among the answers were: there is a need to improve the image of the governance of Montreal. "Montreal is ungovernable in its current state". There is a need for an area-wide transport policy, so those who live on the South Shore and in other suburbs contribute to the overall infrastructure.
(NB Montreal was featured in a recent article in the London Financial Times which pointed out that Montreal has a great quality of life and was rated number 1 by the UN in 1998.)
CUBA
Julius and Lynne Grey have just returned from Cuba and commented that the place was in better shape, cleaner with food readily available. By any of the usual measures of level of education, life expectancy, public safety, Cuba is far ahead of other third world countries, including most of Central and South America. There is even some decentralization in the tourism sector, with two competing tour operators. But the question remains what happens when Castro dies?
THE MIDDLE EAST
Fanaticism is on the rise.
The Palestinian leaders are inciting the youth, while the right wing Israelis (including Ariel Sharon) are equally hawkish. This is a formula for a disaster in the making. A further problem is the level of corruption within the Palestinian government, where it appears that even construction cement attracts a kickback to the government.
Politicians in North America, traditionally disposed to alignment with Israel for both moral and political reasons, are reassessing their positions. The older Jewish voter remains devoted to the causes of Israel, but younger voters are more dispassionate. At the same time, the newer flow of Arab immigrants has brought with it a strong anti-Israel voice. In an election year, these trends are bound to influence U.S. and Canadian policy makers.
In more general terms, the level of hatred generated by different religions around the world is hard for Canadians to understand. Canada is a pluralistic, tolerant society, whereas in Northern Ireland, the Middle East and elsewhere, the irrational hatred of one group against another is passed on from parents to the teenagers that lead to a vicious cycle of hostilities. The cycle has to be broken by education, sport, trade and cultural exchanges.
VOLATILITY IN THE MARKETS
The 930-point drop in the TSE and the halt in trading of Nortel stock engendered serious concerns. Both had suffered an 8% drop in one day. Nortel represents 32% of the TSE (in Finland, Nokia is 50% of the stock index and in Sweden, Ericsson is 40% of the index). None of these situations is desirable. Ideally no one stock should be more than 10% of the national stock index, and some scheme to change the current ratio has been proposed. Ron Meisels pointed that there is a difference between the Stock Exchange Commission issuing a "halt trading" as opposed to a "cease trading".
Now is a good time to buy selected stocks.
Segregated (or Seg) funds
These are an investment vehicle, very similar to mutual funds, but only offered by insurance companies. The idea of Seg funds is to insure the principal sum and guarantee to investors, that no matter what the stock or other markets do, their investments are protected. This brings the downside risk to zero. There is a cost for this insurance, but the Management Expense Ratios (MERs) of Seg funds (which include the insurance element) are in the 2 to 2.5% range, and very similar to actively managed funds.
New Books
Neil and Catharine McKenty's book "Skiing Legends and the Laurentian Lodge Club" was launched at the McCord Museum on November 2nd at a party co-hosted by the publisher, Price-Patterson and members of the Laurentian Lodge Club. McKenty page
Dr. Margo Somerville's controversial book on Ethics, The Ethical Canary: Science, Society and the Human Spirit is to be launched by Penguin in Toronto on Saturday, November 4th. "The book will bring Margo as many enemies as friends!"
The Ethical Canary: Science, Society and the Human Spirit ...As society continues to scientifically and technologically advance, many questions begin to arise of a moral and ethical scope. In The Ethical Canary: Science, Society and the Human Spirit, leading international authority on medicine, ethics and law, Margaret Somerville, presents a challenging examination of the various ethical concerns human society is currently facing at the dawn of the 21st century. Addressing everything from cloning to genetically modified foods, the mapping of a human chromosome and the use of animal organs for human transplants, this highly anticipated volume illuminates some of the most controversial and pressing issues of our time.
Holly Jonas expects her book "Canada Sings" to be on the publishers' Spring List.
We will no doubt look at the recent developments in Yugoslavia, and with Dr. Mihailo (Misha) Crnobrnja's guidance, determine what will happen next.... see also news from Macedonia
QUOTES OF THE EVENING -
- "People want identity and thus are opposed to the idea of mergers"
- "Nationalism is stronger than all reason"
- "With the TSE at about 9500 - the fat lady has sung!"
- "Today was a good day to be in Seg funds!"
Notes by Professor Gerald Ratzer,
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson.
Rex Murphy's analysis and comment on Stockwell Day and his appearance in a wetsuit was superb. While Day wanted the press to see his arrival on a JetSki, most of them focussed on his departure, which gave a rear end view complete with a plume of water!
Sept. 12, 2000 
Available on Real Video
With Day moving into Stornaway and making most of the political gains, there should be a more meaningful public debate. Since there is such diversity among the opposition parties, is there any chance of the consolidated opposition to oust the Liberals? There is reason to believe that Reform can seriously damage the Liberals and this should be cause for concern. It will be interesting to see how Day performs in Parliament and how the Canadian public reacts - while a number of Wednesday Nighters believe that there is little substance, will the voters realize that "deep down he is shallow"?
Belgrade Zeljko Safar AP |
'Good evening, liberated Serbia'
Parliament seized; Milosevic on ropes ...BELGRADE - Slobodan Milosevic's 13-year grip on power appears to
be broken today after hundreds of thousands of people seized the
federal parliament and state-controlled media in a mass uprising
against the Yugoslav President.
An estimated 300,000 opposition supporters brushed aside security
forces yesterday afternoon and poured into Belgrade to force the
Yugoslav strongman to concede he had lost last month's presidential
vote. A peaceful vigil outside the national parliament building erupted
into a melee of tear gas, rioting and gunfire that spread through the
Serb capital.
notes for early October 2000
see our Westmount page for news a new site
Pease note our sell on NT September
at $84 click for chart ...y
Rex Murphy on the Politics: watching the same old play? July 13, 2000 How far have we come?
WASHINGTON--As the U.S. presidential candidates gear up for the final laps of
their respective campaigns, Silicon Valley and other technology hotbeds will be
watching closely as Vice President Al Gore and Texas Gov. George W. Bush flesh
out their positions on technology issues.
the US November Race to see candidate positions on each issue.
George Bush vs Al Gore
30/Oct/2000 Moderate leader claims victory in Kosovo
The leader of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), Dr. Ibrahim Rugova,
claimed victory in the first-ever democratic elections in the province
Sunday. [FULL STORY:]
Do visit our Bermuda Site new
Congratulations to our Peter Trent who courageously - and wisely - led the way on the municipal referendum question. Now the other mayors have followed his example and the suburbs, speaking with one voice, may be heard. Peter will be with us later in the evening.
So, Health, the Economy, a Healthy Economy, Healthy Travel and many healthy cities... are on the menu for tomorrow evening. It should be a fascinating one.
The People and Ideas that Make Modern Investment The Ultimate Investor a book writen by many, on the web. It was produced by Dean Lebaron and Romesh Vaitilingam and includes BCA Martin Barnes with the chaper on International Money
From time to time we will link to Dean Lebaron's one min. tv video clips. 
To view these videos, you'll need RealPlayer.
Click here to download the latest version
Friday - October 13 - Risk
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Material for a Brandeis University class on Risk RiskGrades,
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