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Wednesday Night # 996
April 4th, 2001 sooncome Calendar
QAmerConBadNotes.htm
David and Diana Nicholson
Chris Goodfellow MBA on Gold & Money
This Wednesday we are shifting continents, from Africa to Asia (China to be
more precise) and David has decreed that it will be a role-playing night,
in the manner of West Wing (and if you don't know what that refers to,
don't come!) with Chairman Harry playing Chairman of China as we debate the
international incident of the downed U.S. Navy "surveillance" plane. What
will China do? How will the government square the instinctive reaction with
the country's aspirations to host the Olympics and join the WTO? Be
prepared to defend your point of view - or the opposite one. Dr. Hans Black
will lend his expertise. Good friend, Guy Versailles will also be with us.
No doubt there will be re-visits of such other international topics as the
FTAA , the economy of the world, Hoof and/in Mouth disease, the arrest of
Milosevic, the miserable (for those that are long) Market and the Montreal
mega-merger... something for every intellectual appetite.
WHY IS THIS NIGHT DIFFERENT?
Israel Radio reported that Viagra was not kosher for Passover, which begins
at sundown on Saturday. The pill's coating is the problem, it said, adding
that "in the event of urgent medical need" a rabbi can authorize an
emergency usage.
Deborah Sontag (NYT)
Sun 4/8/01 7:00 PM NO SIGN OF SOLUTION TO U.S. - CHINA STANDOFF
The 24 crew members of an American surveillance plane are now starting
their second week of detention on Hainan island in south China.
cbc
4/Apr/2001 11:10 WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Chinese military officials have boarded a U.S. spy plane grounded in China and removed equipment from it despite U.S. protests, Pentagon sources told CNN on Tuesday.
 www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/east/04/03/china.aircollision.01/index.html
Tue 4/3/01 7:00 PM SELL-OFF CONTINUES AS WARNINGS MOUNT
Stock markets in Canada and the United States extended their prolonged
slump Tuesday, as more companies peered into the future and reported
only gloom. cbc.
and doo see our Money Notes
Tue 4/3/01 8:00 PM BUSH WANTS PLANE, CREW RETURNED
American diplomats have met with the crew of the U.S. Navy surveillance
plane that made an emergency landing in southern China on Sunday.
areas of corporate and commercial law, and international law.
cbc.ca/cgi-
MILOSEVIC COULD FACE DEATH PENALTY
Yugoslav government officials say former president Slobodan Milosevic
could face the death penalty. Milosevic has been arrested on corruption
charges, but investigators are now looking into his role in a number of
political assassinations. :
cbc.ca/cgi-bin/templates/view.cgi?/news/2001/04/03/milosevic010403
ALLIANCE MP COMPARES CHRéTIEN TO MILOSEVIC
The House of Commons spent the entire day debating an Opposition motion
to force a public inquiry into the prime ministerial golf course
controversy. But the debate took a sour turn after a Canadian Alliance
MP compared Jean Chrétien to Slobodan Milosevic. [total waist of time! DTN]
Les Nicholsons
Wednesday Night Salon #996
April 4th, 2001
Wednesday Night 1000 minus four
INTRODUCTION
April 4, 2001
UP-DATE ON THE MEGA-MERGER
Despite the reports of the disastrous effects of Toronto's municipal amalgamation, Québec forges ahead with forced amalgamations in Landryland. Over a century or more of building self-sustained financially efficient municipalities, responsible to their constituents is due to be undone for motives that have been at the best, vaguely described. Misinformation spread by the Mayor of Montreal goes unanswered, largely because it is presented as gospel, not to be questioned, promising a glorious future based on erroneous facts and figures that he is unwilling to debate.
The case presented by dissenting municipalities, notably Westmount, will be heard on May 22nd. Meantime, the other municipalities are sending regrettable mixed signals to the citizens - opposing the merger on the one hand, and on the other, busily discussing whom to support in the November municipal elections and which counselors should run for which seats. see our Merger Notes & archives
THE ECONOMY
The Canadian dollar continues to weaken, closing on Tuesday April 3rd at an all-time low of 63.19 cents, rising the following day to 63.59 cents thanks to heavy intervention by the bank of Canada. A sixty-cent dollar is not outside the realm of possibility. The weakening Canadian dollar is worrisome and has been predicted by the C.I.B.C. to possibly drift down to the sixty-cent level. Possibly the single most important factor is that the Canadian government has permitted Canadian pension funds to increase their foreign holdings to 30% and foreigners have been selling their Canadian securities.
We are not alone. Japan is on the verge of recession. The United States dollar is still considered a safe haven for investment, despite record trade and balance of payment deficits. Opinions are sharply divided among our experts with one suggesting that the winding down of economic growth gives a 45% probability of a recession in the United States. Another, recently returned from California where he expected to see signs of problems and the "dot.goners", instead found that " the recession is here" and that it is " remarkable how quickly is has occurred". He believes that most of the damage has been done, although the Market may go slightly lower over the next six months.
Others believe that we are in a major slowdown that could continue for some time, but may not be catastrophic. At its peak, the U.S. Market was valued at two times GDP. The Globe & Mail headlines say the Market has lost 5 TRILLION dollars - that's more than half the GDP! Mainstream funds are all down 30-40%. The high level of personal indebtedness continues to be a worry. For the first time in 55 years, household net worth has declined.
Look for a further ½% increase decrease in interest rates in the U.S. in mid-April.
Anticipated economic growth in Canada has been revised downward to about 2½%. The private sector is down to 1½%. All world currencies are down versus the U.S. dollar, with the exception of Taiwan and Mexico.
THE U.S.- CHINA CONFRONTATION
Countries spy on each other. This is all part of the national diplomatic pastime, so it comes as no surprise to discover a U.S. spy plane taking a close look, probably through satellite photos, at Chinese installations. Before the acquisition of effective counter measures, the Americans did the same to their trusty neighbours to the north in the Arctic. The accident was unfortunate, and the Americans handled it badly. The Chinese do care about the W.T.O. and the Olympics, and the U.S. must look to the future when they will have to deal with Japan as a trade competitor to China. The Chinese do not come to rapid decisions easily, but the plane will eventually be returned to the United States along with its crew, and perhaps the Bush administration has learned that an early admission and unprompted expression of regret might have speeded up the return.
GLOBALIZATION AND U.S. CULTURE
There appears to be an unstoppable universalization of American culture, made freely available to the population of the world. Even China has not been immune from the invasion. While foreign filmmakers generally portray their own cultures in the most negative ways, the American entertainment industry traditionally portrays the American way of life as enviable and rewarding. American advertising implies a better way of life (even though the images are often irrelevant) through the use of American products. Thus, the American way of life, including its devotion to capitalism and spendthrift management of the Earth's resources, is perceived to be the undeniable good and ultimate goal for all. To the poorer populations of the world - and, often their political leaders, this is a far more desirable goal than pondering the issues of sustainable growth, energy alternatives, resource management, slow, steady progress and the need for a new model even while we embrace an older, wiser, capitalism. What would happen if we were to elect our leaders for a million years? Forcing them to take the (very) long view before making their decisions? What would we, - and they, - do differently?
L' OPÉRA DE MONTRÉAL
On a more optimistic - and cultural - note, Hans Black reminds us that next year the Opéra, of which he is an enthusiastically committed Director, will be participating in the worldwide celebration of the 100th anniversary of Giuseppe Verdi's death. In addition to the performance of Nabuco, there will be several exciting events, an intensified education programme to bring appreciation of opera to schools and non-traditional audiences, and ticket prices designed to attract a broader, less affluent audience.
QUOTES OF THE EVENING:
- "Once you remove taxation, you lose control. What we have developed over 100 years is a number of very well-run small municipalities."
- "Québec is now the only place in the world where (forced) municipal amalgamations are taking place.
- "One of the great mistakes people make is in believing that there is a legal answer to any question. That is only true of uninteresting questions."
- "The Americans have controlled world culture because they have controlled the media distribution ... On the other hand, you have Bourque who, no matter what happens, says that it is good for a merged Montreal."
- "They have created a lot of people with a little knowledge ... Because of the left wing, we have successfully undereducated everyone."
- "Foreign films invariably portray their country in a very unfavourable way, in contrast to the American films."
- "If it looks bad one way, they will look for other means that look better."
- "The Americans believed the propaganda that everyone was well off and are bitter ... (since they discovered that) they were not."
- "Recession is the result of the way people look at things ... a result of mass hysteria ... Recessions are all about human nature."
- "Recession is in the eye of the stock holder".
- "We are at a very interesting turn in the growth of the American empire."
- "Simply managing the world the way it is today, is not to have a vision for the future."
- "The Chinese will probably return the aircrew and they will return the plane, but they won't do it in an hour and a half."
- " It's all a question of a Bush in a China shop".
- "This is about old people arguing about whose beans to count."
- "Maybe they will return it for the Olympics."
Notes by Herb Bercovitz
Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
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