By VIKAS BAJAJ and MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM
Stocks had their biggest one-day gain in five years after the Federal Reserve said it would step up its lending to ease strain on the dysfunctional money market.
Thursday 21 February 2008 The Federal Reserve has revised downwards its prediction for economic growth. Minutes of a closed-door meeting between Chairman Ben Bernanke and his associates on Jan. 29-30 expressed worry over the continuing housing slump and the credit crisis. The Federal Reserve at that meeting lowered a key interest rate by one-half a percentage point, having lowered the same rate by three-quarters of a point eight days prior. According to the minutes, apprehension was expressed that even these aggressive step wouldn't be enough. The Fed now estimates yearly growth at between 1.3 and 2 per cent, down from a previous estimate between 1.8 per cent and 2.5 per cent.
Tuesday 05 February 2008 Dow Off 370 Points on Weak Business Survey
Stocks plummeted on Wall Street on Tuesday after a business survey provided another strong signal that the United States may be in the early stages of a recession. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 370 points.
The Institute for Supply Management reported that activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in January for the first time since March 2003.
Tuesday 22 January 2008 Fed Cuts Rate 0.75% and Stocks Swing
The Fed’s policy-making group, known as the Federal Open Market Committee, lowered its target for the federal funds rate, which regulates overnight loans between banks, to 3.5 percent, from 4.25 percent.
Stocks Plunge Worldwide on Fears of a U.S. Recession
FRANKFURT — Fears that the United States is in a recession reverberated around the world on Monday, sending stock markets from Bombay to Frankfurt into a tailspin and puncturing the hopes of many investors that Europe and Asia will be able to sidestep an American downturn.
Markets History lessons
2007
13 June 2007 Jacques Clément Report The Dow Jones stock market, in a rather volatile and corrective mode, has lost two hundred points since reaching record level (14,147) on June 4, despite declining energy and commodity prices. The European Central Bank’s eighth interest rate increase in eighteen months to four percent, the highest in almost six years, contributed to the decline. Average thirty year mortgages reached 6.61%, the highest in almost eight years as ten year treasuries traded at 5¼%, a five year high. First quarter productivity rose a moderate 1% and unit labour costs rose by close to 2%. The housing market weakened to its worst state in sixteen years with May foreclosures rising 19% (90% for the year). April personal income was negative, existing home sales off by 2½ % and leading economic indicators were negative. Housing permits plunged to the lowest level in almost ten years. Second quarter earnings growth is expected at 3.6% from over 8% in the first quarter. The 6.2% improvement in the April trade deficit to $58.5 billion as imports declined nearly 2% and the May 1.4% rebound in retail sales, today provided some support to the market. Ben Bernanke still “expects inflation to remain high and economic growth to be moderate.”
Tuesday 06 February 2007 How Do We See Red? Count the Ways
Valentine’s Day is nearly upon us, that sweet Hallmark holiday when you can have anything your heart desires, so long as it’s red. Red roses, red nighties, red shoes and red socks. Red Oreo filling, red bagels, red lox. ....“Our visual system was shaped by colors already in use among many plants and animals, and red in particular stands out against the green backdrop of nature,” said Dr. Nicholas Humphrey, a philosopher at the London School of Economics and the author of “Seeing Red: A Study in Consciousness.” “If you want to make a point, you make it in red.”
Tuesday 06 February 2007 Petro-Canada calls off sale of five oil sands properties
Oil and gas giant says international bids for the properties 'did not meet expectations'
Tuesday 06 February 2007 nyt G.O.P. Senators Block Debate on Iraq Policy
By CARL HULSE and JEFF ZELENY
The vote left in doubt the fate of a bipartisan resolution opposing President Bush’s troop buildup in Iraq.
S.E.C. Is Looking at Stock Trading
By JENNY ANDERSON
An investigation has begun into whether Wall Street bank employees are leaking information about big trades to favored clients.
Slow Market Start — Is a Bad Year Looming?
1. Slow Market Start — Is a Bad Year Looming?
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the first five trading days of the year can be an early warning signal for investors.
That Almanac says that if stocks are net positive for the first five days of the year, 86 percent of the time the stock market is generally positive for the rest of the year. But if stocks are net negative for the first five days of the year, such as this year, there is a 48 percent chance that stocks will end the year in the red.
This year, the S&P 500 closed down 0.4 percent at the end of the first five trading days.
Clearly, this early warning signal is much more reliable in positive years, and less so in negative years. However, if investors wait until the end of the month, they’ll be more likely to predict the stock market’s direction for the year.
According to the Almanac’s January Barometer, "as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the market." By waiting to see if stocks are positive or negative at the end of the month, the accuracy rate of the indicator registers 91.1 percent. In other words, the indicator has been wrong just five times since 1950.
"January is important because it gives you some general sense of investors' appetite for stocks," Jason Trennert, founder and chief investment strategist of Strategas Research Partners, tells USA Today. "If you start off weak, people are probably less inclined to put money to work in stocks."
If stocks end the year below 1,418.30 on Jan. 31, make sure you at least hedge your bets on the stock market. We find a great tool for that is a LEAPS put option on the either the Dow or the S&P 500. Good luck!
Editor's Note:
Monday 01 January 2007 MW U.S. stocks end 2006 with best gains in three years
Monday 01 January 2007