2005

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Technology through the crystal ball

By JACK KAPICA

Thursday, February 10, 2005 Updated at 11:59 AM EST

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Robots will enter our homes to do household chores in 2005, malicious software will be rampant and digital crimes will proliferate, predicts professional-services company Deloitte.

The top 10 trends for 2005, reported by Deloitte's Technology, Media and Telecommunications industry group, will be led by "incredibly diverse" technological advancements, Deloitte's Garry Foster said in a statement.

Among the trends:

1. Nanotechnology, the set of technologies that enables the manipulation of structures and processes at the atomic level, is expected to go mainstream, and will be one of the least understood technologies of the 21st century. Yet it will soon become a cornerstone of every manufacturing industry, from manufacturing computer hard drives, sun block cream, or car tires. Pharmaceutical companies will implement nanoscale structures for drug delivery, and clothing manufacturers will likely exploit nanoscale properties to make stain-resistant, crease-free fabrics and garments that resist bacteria.

2. Massive growth in connected technologies will cause a corresponding leap in electronic viruses and other malicious attacks such as unsolicited e-mail ( spam) and unsolicited instant messages (spim). More harmful intrusions, such as viruses, worms and malware, blue-jacking (attacks on Bluetooth-enabled devices) and VoIP spam will become common

3. The year will see a rapid increase in electronic forms of identification as governments around the world move to replace paper-based identification with digital products including passports, ID cards, bank cards and credit cards. Electronic identification will be primarily designed to curb fraud and identity theft, yet identity theft will continue to rise.

4. Several innovations will extend the appeal and reach of WiFi technology, from streaming music wirelessly from a computer to a stereo system, to networked control over lights and appliances throughout the home. Deployment of fee-based hotspots is likely to continue to outpace usage, with numerous companies fighting over a niche market that might actually get smaller in 2005. WiMAX, the heir apparent to WiFi, is predicted to make more headlines than money, Deloitte says.

5. The "great beast" of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) will awaken, Deloitte says, especially with major retail chains, defence contractors, automotive manufacturers and others. More than 10 billion RFID tags will have been sold and used buy the end of the year.

6. Music downloading will become respectable in 2005, with a rapid growth in music downloads over the Internet. Illegal downloading will still dominate, but legal sites will significantly increase their share, fuelled by the growing quality of on-line music stores. The music industry will finally begin to recognize and embrace the financial benefits of this new distribution channel for singles and albums, as well as new forms of content, such as ring tones, remixes and live recordings.

7. Advertising will become embedded in text hyperlinks, software toolbar buttons or even computer graphics in video games, software (particularly freeware), web browsers and even active desktops on mobile phones. These ads will be very precisely targeted as advertisers learn more about each group of consumers and will need to be far more subtle and sophisticated and less intrusive than the banner ads and pop-ups that currently plague the Internet.

8. Blogs and Wikis will compete more intensely. Traditional media outlets will lose their monopoly on content, as more and more people express their opinions on the Internet through Blogs (Web logs) and Wikis (editable Web pages). While not a direct threat to traditional media revenue, they will compete for eyeballs and influence — the media industry's underlying currency.

9. By the end of 2005, there will be nearly two billion cellular mobile subscriptions worldwide, with growth strongest in developing countries (Asia and Latin America), where mobile phones are both a transformational technology and a status symbol. Penetration will surpass 100 per cent as more customers take a second subscription for data or for personal use.

10. The vast majority of voice calls will still be with the Public Switched Telephony Network (PSTN) due to superior call quality and reliability. PSTN operators will reduce prices in response to the competition from low-cost providers (mobile and VoIP), causing margin pressure. VoIP, meanwhile, faces a rollercoaster year with both call volume and the user base increasing significantly

"From wireless mesh networks to robots moving into our homes to help us with household chores and quantum computers taking a few important steps closer to commercial reality, technology will continue to change and enhance all of our lives," Mr. Foster said.

But, he warned, there are challenges ahead.

"Electronic forms of personal identification may serve to improve security, yet identity theft and other digital crimes will continue to run rampant. Meanwhile, viruses, worms and other malware [malicious software] will explode and spread to connected mobile devices, frustrating the public and costing companies billions in lost data and downtime. It's a very exciting and daunting time."

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