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2008

Sunday 17 August 2008 Gold falls below to $800 an ounce
Commodity prices including gold, copper and aluminium, decline amid fears of slowing demand.

Gold prices have fallen to below $800 an ounce

Gold fell to below $800 an ounce for the first time since December 2007 while aluminium prices hit their lowest in some six months. Copper also fell.

The price of commodities has fallen on speculation that demand will slow amid a global slowdown.

Another factor has been the stronger dollar, which has reached a half-year high against the euro.

Wednesday 30 April 2008 TORONTO: GOLD MINER SUSPENDS ECUADOR ACTIVITIES
Canadian gold company Aurelian Resources has announced layoffs of 360 employees in Ecuador and Canada because of the decision of Ecuador's by the country's constitutional assembly to suspend almost all foreign mining concessions in the country. During the six months, a new law governing natural resources will be drawn up. Aurelian employs 450 people in its operations in Ecuador and at its head office in Toronto. Tuesday's announcement caused Aurelian stock to drop by 15 per cent on the TSX. Officials of Aurelian and seven other Canadian miners met last Thursday with leftwing President Rafael Correa and said afterwards that he assured them they would be able to operate "responsibly" in Ecuador.

Thursday 10 April 2008 China becomes world's biggest gold producer: survey
LONDON (AFP) - China became the world's biggest producer of gold last year, overtaking South Africa which held top spot for 100 years, the independent precious metals consultancy GFMS said here on Wednesday.

Saturday 05 April 2008 Schulich takes 14% stake in New Gold
Prominent Canadian businessman has bought 4 million shares on the open market “for investment purposes”

Tuesday, March 25, 2008 TOP PICK BARRICK GOLD CORP (NYSE:ABX TSE:ABX): Barrick done very well, been in major uptrend, trading range $47-53, it is probably minimum $60 stock. Been a laggard for such a long time so now it is finally moving. It is a senior player, institutions because of their size are happy to own this. Gold stocks and gold itself very often move slightly separately. We paid $36 for Barrick.Ron Meisels, www.na-marketletter.com

Tuesday Mar 18, 2008 Nervous investors turning to gold
Growing market turmoil and unease about the health of financial institutions has brought a gold rush to a bullion dealer...

Saturday 15 March 2008 IT’S THE GOLD RUSH ALL OVER AGAIN
CTV News and the Globe lead, as the National fronts and the Star, the Citizen, and the Post front their financial sections with the price of gold reaching a glittering $1,000 US per ounce for the first time. On Tuesday, a day CBC News referred to as a “volatile day for world currency, commodity and equity markets,” gold gained $13.30 US in value from Wednesday’s close. Analysts are attributing the rising value of gold to the deteriorating US dollar and the sustained threat of inflation. The Post adds other contributing factors, such as the global credit crisis and a stagnant mine supply. Investors are scrambling to protect themselves by placing their funds in hard assets such as gold. The prices for precious metals, CBC News notes, have gained more than 20 percent this year alone. In a different vein, the Financial Post discusses the recent consumer trend that sees gold jewelry purchased as an investment, rather than as fashion accessory. As prices have gone up, it reports, evidence has surfaced that the demand for jewelry has plummeted. The Globe reports that Tony Ma, president of the Vancouver Bullion and Currency Exchange, believes that buyers of gold now outnumber sellers by a ratio of five to one.

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Saturday 15 March 2008 Gold passes $1,000 an ounce

Monday 03 March 2008 Gold notches all-time high at $991 an ounce; crude oil hits record $103.51 a barrel
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold and crude-oil futures surged to new record highs Monday morning, propelled by sharp weakness in the U.S. dollar. Gold for April delivery hit a record of $991 an ounce, while crude oil for April delivery soared to a record of $103.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Friday Jan 4, 2008

Gold has never been more solid

Thursday Jan 3, 2008 Gold prices soar to record high
Gold prices swept to a record high yesterday above the key $850-an-ounce mark, driven by surging oil, a weaker dollar and...

Tuesday 01 January 2008 Seven reasons why gold should surge
Commentary: And how to play the move
1. China can't get enough gold
2. Two India gold ETFs are launching
3. Existing gold ETFs are pumping up demand
4. Investment demand is booming
5. Central bank gold stockpiles have swooned to a 60-year low
6. Miners can't find new deposits fast enough
7. Gold charts show opportunity

Friday 07 December 2007
Barrick Gold (ABX : TSX : $40.47), Net Change: 0.16, % Change: 0.40%, Volume: 2,943,328
Goldcorp (G : TSX : $33.60), Net Change: 0.85, % Change : 2.60%, Volume: 3,053,788
Yamana Gold (YRI : TSX : $13.28), Net Change: 0.28, % Change: 2.15%, Volume: 6,888,420
“Reality is not always probably, or likely.” – Jorge Luis Borges, Argentinean author. Argentina has become the latest government to change the taxation goal posts in its favour, despite a 30-year guaranteed of tax stability on mineral exports. On Tuesday, customs agents demanded new taxes on Rio Tinto (RPT) and Xstrata’s exports despite having previously been issued letters stating that they would not be taxed at that stage. Some companies are challenging the new taxes in court while all of them warn that the move will discourage future mine investment. Business leaders warn that the extra 10%, if upheld, will raise the grade cut-off that will be economic to mine. This will reduce mine lives, leading to lower employment and revenue for all involved. In 2002, the government implemented broad export taxes to generate revenue in the midst of a deep financial crisis but left many mines unchanged based from the 1993 federal mining law.

Tuesday 04 December 2007 VANCOUVER: GOLDCORP SCALES UP MEXICO PROJECT
Goldcorp Inc. has announced it will increase its expenditure of its Penasquito project in Mexico to US$1.49 billion from $882 million. Goldcorp intends to increase the size of the mine by 30 per cent. Penasquito is expect to produce 1.7 million ounces of gold annually, plus silver, zinc and lead. The Vancouver-based miner has already spent $450 million to develop the mine. The announcement follows a series of moves at other companies seeking rush mineral projects into production to take advantage of high world commodity prices.

Thursday 15 November 2007 Gold tumbles below $790
NEW YORK, LONDON — Gold prices tumbled 3.5 per cent to a two-week low Thursday in choppy trade, moving well below the $800 (U.S.) mark, giving up all of Wednesday's gains, as a bounce in the U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices triggered heavy profit taking.

Tuesday 13 November 2007 Global Gold Outlook - Returning To A Monetary Standard
RBC CM continues to believe that gold bullion will remain in a bullish upswing over the remainder of this decade. Increasing geopolitical risk, combined with increasing economic uncertainty, should continue to provide incentive for investors to increase their exposure to gold as a safe haven. RBC CM believes that confidence in the fiat money system’s ability to preserve economic value is being shaken, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar, and the metal is clearly gaining credibility among investors as a store of value. A significant implication of the recent U.S. dollar sell-off and strong performance in gold, is what could happen if the U.S. dollar were to continue to lose its position as the de facto base to which many countries tie their currency. In the current Bretton Woods II period, emerging Asian, Latin America and the Middle East countries have created informal links of their currencies to the U.S. dollar, rather than Europe and Japan as in the prior period. RBC CM believes we may well be witnessing a similar situation to the 60s, as spare capacity is increasingly exhausted and price pressures in the emerging world build - the greater the instability in prices, the greater the likelihood of currency realignments. Based on RBC CM’s global supply/demand outlook, it continues to forecast favorable supply/demand fundamentals and a tight gold market over the next few years. With gold at near-record levels, a seasonal quiet period for gold demand in November and a record level of speculative long positions may well be the catalysts for a significant correction in the gold price from the current $835/oz level to the $725/oz to $750/oz range prior to year-end. From a fundamental perspective, RBC CM continues to favor gold companies with improving production and cost profiles, gold reserve upside, active exploration programs and strong management teams. Gold equities that offer investors a combination of these characteristics include: Kinross Gold (K), Goldcorp (G), IAMGold (IMG), Jaguar Mining (JAG) and Anatolia Minerals (ANO).

Friday Nov 9, 2007 Gold looks like a haven as nations print money
The rise in the loonie, gold and oil -- all relative to the once-mighty U.S. dollar -- are the big three investment themes this...

Wednesday 10 October 2007 NEW YORK: FRIENDLY BID OFFERED FOR CANADIAN GOLD MINER
Directors of junior Canadian gold miner Miramar Mining Corp. has recommended that shareholders accept an acquisition bid of US$1.52 billion from Montana-based Newmont Mining. The Denver-based company already owns 8.4 per cent of Miramar. The transaction would give Newmont control of Mirimar's huge gold project in the eastern Canadian Arctic territory of Nunavut, a development which extends over 1,000 square kilometres.

Wednesday 19 September 2007
Gold Futures Dec. ’07 (GOLDC : NYMEX : US$723.70), Net Change: -0.10, % Change: -0.01%
Nuggety. Gold traded at 28-year highs after the FOMC cut rates. Fed watchers still expect another 25-basis-point cut in the Fed funds rate in 2007, most likely in October. If the Fed carries out a series of rate cuts, sending the dollar lower, what’s there to stop gold from going a lot higher? With gold at 28-year highs, you’ve got to figure the TSX Composite’s 52-week high list would be dominated by gold stocks. Nope, not a single senior gold producer made the list yesterday. Caveat Emptor, guess which month is the worst-performing month for gold stocks? You guessed it: October. The average decline in the group is 5.1%, going back to 1995. Noted market watcher Dennis Gartman says, “This is a global, catholic bull market in gold, not a parochial, dollar bull market. Weakness then is to be bought, rather than strength being sold until further notice is given otherwise.”

Tuesday 18 September 2007 Gold touches over quarter-century high in electronic trade

Friday 14 September 2007 rci BUCHAREST: CANADIAN MINER'S GOLD PROJECT PUT ON HOLD
The Romanian authorities have suspended the procedure to authorize a controversial project by the Canadian mineral firm Gbriel Resources to open a gold mine at Rosia Montana in central Rumania. The central government made the decision after a court invalidated an urban planning certificate which Gabriel Resources had obtained to start construction of the mine. A Romanian environmental protection group, Alburnus Maior, had challenged the certificate on the grounds that the exploitation of the mine using cyanide could cause an environmental disaster. see Romania

Friday 07 September 2007 Gold approaches a 16-month high
Price move supported by strong oil market, safe-haven buying or

Sunday 02 September 2007 Bre-X: 'The end of the trail'
10 years after the company's $6.1-billion collapse, Bre-X shareholders know nothing more about who was responsible for the biggest fraud in the history of mining

Wednesday 01 August 2007 rci TORONTO: ACQUITTAL IS VERDICT IN CASE OF WORST MINING SCANDAL
A court in the Canadian province of Ontario has handed down a verdict in the worst fraud case in the history of Canada's mining sector. The court found former geologist John Felderhof of the defunct mining company Bre-X not guilty of illegal insider trading. The Ontario Securities Commission claimed he traded $84 million worth of Bre-X stock in a few months in 1996 while being aware that there was no gold at the company's site at Busang, Indonesia. The former geologist lives in Indonesia and was not present for Tuesday's verdict. more | imgs

Tuesday 31 July 2007 Former Bre-X geologist acquitted of insider trading
The decision comes seven years after Felderhof's trial began, and almost a year after closing arguments concluded last August.
John Felderhof is now living in Indonesia. He was not present for Tuesday's ruling.
Bre-X collapsed after a gold exploration hoax at the Busang mine in Indonesia wiped out about $3 billion dollars in investors' money nine years ago.
... "He has had his assets in the Grand Cayman Islands frozen, he's says he's racked up about $12 million in legal fees fighting all of this, there's still a class-action lawsuit against him and other lesser executives, and the bankruptcy trustees of Bre-X are after Felderhof and others for damages," she said.

Tuesday 31 July 2007 TORONTO: JUDGMENT DUE IN BIGGEST MINERAL FRAUD
Ontario Superior Court is expected to deliver a verdict on Tuesday in the worst fraud in the history of Canada's mining industry. The court will rule on accusations brought by the Ontario Securities Commission against the former chief geologist of the defunct Bre-X firm, John Felderhof, for insider trading. The OSC contends that he traded $84 million worth of Bre-X stock in a few months in 1996, while being aware that there was no gold at the company's site at Busang, Indonesia. Mr. Felderhof is accused of eight counts of illegal insider trading and misleading investors, charges to which he has pleaded not guilty. He risks a fine of $1 million and a two-year jail term. The former geologist lives in Indonesia and his lawyer hasn't said whether he would return to Canada to do time if found guilty.

Monday 16 July 2007 GOLDS: EXPECTATIONS OF Q2 FINANCIALS
The North American gold producers will begin reporting Q2 2007 financials starting the week of July 23, with Meridian reporting on July 24. In the seniors, Barrick and Kinross report on Aug. 1, Newmont on Aug. 2 and Goldcorp on Aug. 9. For Q2, we are generally in line with or within pennies of consensus estimates. Companies with exposure to base metals should benefit from higher prices in Q2 after negative adjustments in Q1 while those with silver exposure will continue to benefit from rising prices. For the group in general, we are anticipating the cost structure in Q2 ($325/oz) to be relatively flat with Q1 ($330/oz) due to strengthening in the oil price and the Canadian and Australian dollars which offset the gains in the precious and base metals pricing. Our earnings expectations, as well as the key issues to watch for, are detailed in this note. Gold averaged $667/oz in Q2, up 3% (or $17/oz) from $650/oz in Q1 2007 and up 6% (or $39/oz) over the Q2 2006 average of $628/oz. During the quarter, the gold price started strongly because of a declining U.S. dollar and significant de-hedging by numerous producers and realized a high of $691/oz but weakened to a low of $642/oz just before the quarter came to end on seasonal factors. Gold ended the quarter at $650/oz, the price which will be used in calculating mark-to-market values for gold hedge books.

26 May 2007 The Golden Key By George Kleinman
Gold is so rare that the entire global supply could be compressed into just one 18-yard cube. To put it another way, more steel is made in one hour than all the gold mined over the history of mankind.

Friday 25 May 2007 GOLDS: WHY HAS BUILLION OUTPERFORMED THE EQUITIES?
To say that the gold stocks haven’t performed well year-to-date is an understatement. In Q1, gold was up 4.7% while our coverage stocks were off anywhere from 7.0% to 19.0% (except for Kinross, which was up 16.1% in the quarter upon closing the Bema deal, and Eldorado Gold, up 8.0%). The World Gold Index (representing 30 gold stocks around the world) was down 4.7%, with all gold indexes in the red. Year-to-date, the numbers aren’t much different as gold was up 4.7% (using the Tuesday, May 22 close), while again Kinross and Eldorado Gold were in positive territory at 9.1% and 4.6%, respectively. The remainder of our coverage companies were down from 3.7% to 20.0%. The World Gold Index was down 7.4% year-to-date and again all of the gold indexes are in the red. The gold price in 2007 has traded between $608 and $691/oz and has averaged $659/oz year-to-date. It failed to break through the $700/oz psychological level and we are unlikely to see this level broken over the next several months as we are heading into a traditionally weak period for gold (June and July) but with better performance expected in the fall. The next technical support level for gold price is the 200-day moving average, which is $636/oz. So why have the stocks underperformed the commodity? We believe there are three main reasons: 1) Lack of reserve replacement despite higher gold price used in calculating reserves; 2) No margin expansion despite higher gold price; and 3) The flood of equity issues. Our top picks remain Goldcorp in the senior group and Agnico-Eagle and Eldorado in the mid-tier producers.

Monday 14 May 2007 Gold rallies on softer dollar, platinum eyes report
Weaker dollar and firm oil prices boost investor confidence

Thursday 03 May 2007 High gold price no 'cyclical blip,' Munk says
Barrick share price will respond when investors realize, 'this is not just a one-off increase in gold prices'

Monday 23 April 2007 GOLDS: EXPECTATIONS OF Q1 FINANCIALS.
The North American gold producers will begin reporting Q1 2007 financials starting the week of April 23, with Teck Cominco reporting on April 23. In the seniors, Newmont reports on April 26, Barrick on May 2, Kinross on May 7, and Goldcorp on May 11. For Q1, we are generally in line with or within pennies of consensus estimates for the gold companies. Companies with exposure to silver should benefit from higher prices again this quarter while those exposed to base metals will see negative base metal pricing adjustments. For the group in general, we are anticipating the cost structure in Q1 to be about 17% higher at about $330/oz than in Q4 (averaged $282/oz).

EC Monday 09 April 2007 A fine and fickle friend Gold is a useful hedge—but only for a fortnight

Thursday 22 February 2007 Gold Soars to Nine-Month High
LONDON - Gold steadied on Thursday after the previous day's surge to nine-month highs and analysts expect stronger oil prices and world security worries to push prices higher over the coming days.
Spot gold was at $677.90/678.60 an ounce, compared with $678.90/679.60 late in New York on Wednesday, when the precious metal jumped more than 3 percent to $682.10, the highest since May 19 last year.

[Editor's Note: Four Gold Picks Set to Skyrocket in 2007 - Get Them Now]

Monday 05 February 2007 NEW REPORT:NORTH AMERICAN GOLD STATISTICS.
Bullion had a volatile January as the first half was relatively weak (as the dollar strengthened on strong employment data) but came back with a vengeance in the last trading days of the month to close at the $650/oz level. The gold price received a boost from a weakening dollar and the unwinding of the 1-mln ounce Western Areas hedge book. ETFs demand decreased by 7 tonnes from its high in December to close the month at 623 tonnes. We maintain our gold price estimate of $650/oz in 2007. The equities finished the month on a low note, declining 3.1% in January with the gold price up 3%. Base metals prices, particularly zinc, were off 18.2%. Despite the drop, Agnico-Eagle Mines was down only 2.4%. Seniors Barrick Gold (3.5%) and Goldcorp (2.6%) were also down, mainly due to their copper exposure, as the metal was off 9.7%. Kinross Gold and Bema Gold were the group's strongest performers, up 12.0% and 11.4%, respectively, as investors anticipated a positive vote on the combination. Our top picks are Goldcorp, Agnico-Eagle and Eldorado Gold.

Tuesday 30 January 2007 ROYAL GOLD(RGLD)US$31.34 – EXPECT SOLID RESULTS LED BY ROBINSON MINE. RATING: SECTOR PERFORM. TARGET: US$36.50. RISK RATING: ABOVE AVERAGE. INDUSTRY RATING: MARKET WEIGHT.
Royal Gold is scheduled to release their Q2 f2007 before market opens on Thursday, Feb. 1. We expect Royal Gold to post earnings per share of $0.17 and operating cash flows per share of $0.23 for Q2 f2007. There is a conference call at noon on Thursday, Feb. 1, to discuss their results. The call-in numbers are 800-603-2779 (U.S. and Canada) and 706-634-7230 (International). The company has recently made two significant acquisitions: a 2% royalty on Goldcorp’s Peñasquito project in Mexico and a sliding scale (0.16% to 1.08%) NSR (net smelter return) royalty on the Chilean portion of Barrick’s Pascua Lama deposit. During the quarter, the company also acquired a 2% sliding scale NSR royalty on Barrick’s Gold Hill deposit in Nevada (adjacent to RoundMountain). Given the continued strength of gold, we anticipate another strong quarter from Royal Gold. We are maintaining our Sector Perform rating and US$36.50 target. <=>GOLDS: EXPECTATIONS OF Q4 2006 FINANCIALS – GUIDANCE FOR 2007.
The North American gold producers will begin reporting Q4 2006 financials starting the week of Feb. 5, with Centerra on Feb 6. In the seniors, Teck Cominco reports on Feb. 12, Kinross on Feb. 21, Newmont and Barrick on Feb. 22, and Goldcorp on Mar. 8. For Q4, we are generally in line with or within a penny of consensus estimates for the gold companies. Companies with exposure to zinc and silver should benefit from higher prices for these commodities again this quarter. Agnico-Eagle has by-product credits for both metals and Meridian has significant silver production and hence we highlight these as two companies expected to have better Q4 financial results than in Q3. For the group in general, we are anticipating the cost structure in Q4 to be about 2% higher than in Q3 (average $274/oz). Our earnings expectations, as well as the key issues to watch for, are detailed in this note. The companies will also be providing 2006 reserves/resources and 2007 operating and capital guidance.

Saturday 20 January 2007 GOLDS: GFMS – GOLD SUPPLY/DEMAND UPDATE.
Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) released its second half (H2) 2006 gold supply/demand update and some initial forecast for H1 2007 outlook. On the fundamentals, the report showed a 5% drop in year-over-year (y/y) annual supply for 2006 versus 2005 (excluding the dehedging effect shown in the table below), driven mainly by a 50% fall in official sales, while mine supply was down 2% and scrap recovery was up 20%.From a demand perspective, the big story in 2006 was price sensitivity, with jewellery demand declining 16% on +$600/oz gold prices. Jewellery demand (approximately 80% of total fabrication demand) saw an 11% decrease, mainly because of a 16% decline in jewellery demand. Total investment demand (including bar hording in our estimates) fell 21%, with bar hoarding off 13% and other investments off 26%.For 2006, world supply (excluding dehedging) is estimated to have fallen by 5% based mainly on significantly lower official sales and slightly lower mine supply, partially offset by a 20% increase in gold scrap. Producer dehedging increased nearly five-fold over 2005 due to Barrick’s elimination of the legacy Placer Dome hedge book. Gold averaged $604/oz in 2006, up 36% from 2005. Our view is that the gold price is currently being driven by economic parameters, particularly the weakening U.S. dollar. We believe secondary factors such as the level of oil price, base metal prices and interest rates are also impacting the direction of the gold price. On the supply/demand front for gold, we continue to believe that mine supply will remain relatively flat in 2007, dehedging will continue, and European central banks will not meet their 500t sales quota again this year. On investment demand, new ETFs being launched coupled with further demand from derivative markets is expected to help investment demand. Our 2007 gold price forecast is $650/oz and our top picks remain Goldcorp, Agnico-Eagle and Eldorado Gold.

GOLDS: HIGHLIGHTS OF NBF’S CEO ROUNDTABLE FORUM-2007.
National Bank Financial held a CEO roundtable discussion with investors yesterday (Jan. 18) in Toronto, in which the top executives of Barrick Gold (Greg Wilkins), Agnico-Eagle (Sean Boyd), Kinross Gold (Tye Burt) and Goldcorp (Kevin McArthur) discussed issues in the gold industry ranging from exploration and mining in new frontiers, challenges and innovations in the mining industry, supply and demand and gold price outlook, M&A activity and corporate strategy. Global ETF demand has been the main driver of gold price in the past two years and now accounts for about 500 tonnes (18 mln oz). More ETFs are planned this year (India is launching at least two in the short term). In terms of diverting investment away from the equities, Barrick believes that investors have varying degrees of risk tolerance and that the challenge for the mining companies is to deliver returns that offset their increased risk (political, operating, management) versus the ETFs. Kinross stated that while there have been reports that some countries are adding to reserves, there has been little supporting statistical evidence, although we have not seen any evidence of significant selling. Goldcorp noted that gold supply is declining in the Western World (Canada, the U.S. and Europe), and in Australia, while there is growth in Asia, Africa and Russia. Agnico-Eagle is very bullish on gold and expects it to average $700/oz this year, possibly retesting its historic highs (over $800/oz) based on a weaker U.S. dollar (unsustainable twin deficits) and positive supply/demand fundamentals

2006

Saturday 30 December 2006 GOLD COMMENTS
Gold is headed for its biggest annual gain since 2002 as declines in the dollar spurred demand for the metal as an alternative investment. The metal is up 23% this year and climbed to a 26- year high of $730.40 an ounce on May 12 on investment demand. The dollar is down 8.2% against a basket of six currencies such as the euro and yen in 2006, the fourth drop in five years. “Conditions are in place for gold to move higher as we head into the new year,'' said Philip Newman, a senior metals analyst at London-based metals research company GFMS Ltd. “We are still expecting the U.S. dollar to weaken considerably and that is one factor that would push gold higher.'' Selling by mining companies may limit any gains today. Producers can take advantage of the rally by selling metal before it's mined to hedge against a possible drop in prices. “We're seeing some year-end producer selling,'' said Simon Weeks, head of precious-metals trading at ScotiaMocatta in London. “After the first week in the new year, prices will probably start to go lower.'' “We've gone up from the mid $620s to the $630s on very little volume,'' Weeks said. “As such, unless we hit the ground running in January, which I don't think will happen, we'll be heading back down to $600.''

Gold may soon lose lustre

Jewellers' holiday purchases may give way to central bank sales

Don Vialoux, Financial Post

Published: Monday, September 11, 2006

The annual rally in gold and gold stocks appeared earlier than usual this year. Gold and gold equities have a period of seasonal strength from the end of July to the end of September.

Gold gained in eight of the past 10 periods; the average gain per period was 6.0%. The Philadelphia gold and precious metals index also advanced in eight of the past 10 periods; the average gain per period was 11.9%.

The TSX gold index improved in nine of the past 10 periods; the average gain per period was 16.6%.

Strength during this period can be attributed partially to seasonal purchases of gold by fabricators who make jewellery for the Christmas season and the Diwali holiday in India.

This year, technical parameters on gold stocks began to improve in mid-June. iShares on the S&P/TSX gold index (XGD/TSX) have gained nicely since our column on the gold sector on June 26. The units, which closed at $70.75 on June 26, were near $78 Friday after having reached $81.77 earlier last week.

Canadian gold-stock prices also have a history of weakness in October. The down arrows in the chart at right show what can happen to gold in the fall.

Investors are concerned that European central banks will resume selling gold reserves in October. Under the 1999 Washington Accord, European central banks have agreed to limit sales to 400 tonnes of gold per year.

The anniversary of the accord is Sept. 30. Thereafter, the central banks are free to sell their next annual allotments. In reality, the central banks rarely start to sell their allotments on Oct. 1. However, the possibility of additional gold sales after Sept. 30 weighs on gold and gold stocks into October.

Technicals Technical parameters remain positive. Two technical indicators, the relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence, recorded a momentum "buy" signal on iShares on the S&P/TSX gold index in mid-June. The units subsequently trended higher.

Last week, the units broke resistance at $80 and confirmed their intermediate uptrend. The RSI and MACD are overbought in the short term, but have yet to show significant signs of rolling over. A technical profit-taking signal is pending.

Fundamentals A series of good news events this summer likely will continue to support the sector into the fall. The sector has benefited from strong second-quarter earnings reports, consolidation in the industry and anticipation of results from summer exploration programs.

On the other hand, stock price gains have occurred despite little or no change in the price of gold during the past three months. Stock valuations are stretched. Many stocks in the sector currently are trading at a takeover premium.

The bottom line Investors holding gold stocks, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds for a seasonal trade are watching for technical signs to take profits.

- Don Vialoux, a chartered market technician, is the author of a free daily report on equity markets, sectors, commodities, stocks and exchange-traded funds. Reports are available at www.timingthemarket.ca. Mr. Vialoux does not own securities mentioned in this report.

© National Post 2006

Thu 31/08/2006 Goldcorp Inc. of Vancouver, the world's biggest gold company, is trying to get even bigger by acquiring its rival Glamis Gold. The transaction would be a stock-only deal by which Glamis shareholders would receive 1.69 Goldcorp shares for each Glamis share. Goldcorp CEO Ian Telfer would be the chairman of the merged firm, while Glamis CEO Kevin McArthur will be president and CEO. Shareholders and investors seem divided on the advisability of the proposed deal. Glamis shares rose about $8.18 a share in day trading in Toronto, putting the company's valuation at $8.7 billion. Some Goldcorp shareholders unloaded their shares, sending it down to $30.53 at midday. Glamis shareholders will vote on the proposed transaction, while those of Goldcorp won't.

Monday 28 August 2006 globe NovaGold sues Barrick
Vancouver — NovaGold Resources is filing another lawsuit against Barrick Gold, alleging violation of U.S. securities laws, and calling for a suspension of Barrick's $1.5-billion takeover bid.

Bre-X lawyer on a quest for fees
Former chief geologist, who stands accused of illegally selling company shares valued at $84-million in 1996, has not been paying his legal bills

Sunday 06 August 2006 TORONTO: GOLD MINER EXPANDS IN BRAZIL
Kinross Gold Corp., the fourth-biggest gold company in North America, has announced it will invest $470 million US more in its Paracatu project in Brazil, which is expected to start up in 2008 and operate for 30 years. Paracatu has 15.2 million ounces of proven and likely mineral reserves. Kinross also says it took advantage of high world gold prices to record a profit of $65.6 million US, compared with a loss of $16 million a year earlier.

Monday 24 July 2006 13:00 Gold dips on hopes for Mideast solution
Some risk premium comes off precious metal
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures slipped anew Monday, as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in the Middle East in the first American on-the-ground diplomatic effort to resolve the conflict involving Lebanon and Israel.

Wednesday, April 12, 2006 Howard Shelves "Da Vinci" Disclaimer slide show

Wednesday, April 12, 2006Again this week, the price of gold bubbled over $600 and contracts with a June delivery date came to rest yesterday at $599.40. We began our Trade of the Decade in 2000, with a gold price below $300. Now, the decade is more than half finished. The price of gold has doubled.

Tue May 9,Gold Prices Hit Highest Level Since 1980
NEW YORK - Gold prices surged Tuesday above $700 an ounce — a level not reached since 1980 — as funds bought into the market, driven by weakness in the dollar, political tension in the Middle East and overall upward momentum in the commodities markets.

Wednesday Apr 12, 2006 globe Gold to surpass $800: survey
Strong investment demand will continue to drive gold prices to new highs this year, GFMS survey forecasts

Yellow fever EC

The price of gold rose above $600 a troy ounce on April 11th for the first time since December 1980 before falling back. Investors looking for higher-yielding assets have helped raise the price of gold by over 40% in the past year. See article

14/92/06 Sell gold: Goldman is recommending that investors get out of gold and lock in their gains just two months after it suggested they buy.

If Tiffany’s busts the budget, try Crater of Diamonds State Park wit8 five bucks, a shovel, and a prayer. (nationalgeographic.com) | flash

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