Oil Energy Notes David T. Nicholson's Wednesday-Night.com

Wednesday 12 November 2008 Oil price slides to 20-month low
Oil prices have fallen to the lowest levels since the beginning of 2007 due to worries about weakening energy demand.

Sunday 09 November 2008 CALGARY: DRILLING IN ALBERTA PREDICTED DOWN
The Petroleum Services Association of Canada predicts that there will be 10 per cent fewer oil and natural gas wells drilled next year than this.

Monday 03 November 2008 VANCOUVER: RESIDENTS FEAR WIDENING PIPELINE ATTACKS
There is concern that attacks on a natural gas pipeline in British Columbia are moving closer to populated areas. There have been three explosions in less than a month that targeted the Calgary-based energy firm EnCana, including the latest one on Friday near Dawson Creek. None of the attacks has disrupted the flow of gas or resulted in injuries. A special team from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police is following up several leads. A threatening letter was sent to the local media the day before the first attack. The writer called EnCana and other energy companies "terrorists" for expanding what the writer said were "deadly gas mines." The letter gave the companies a deadline to shut down their operations.

EDMONTON: PROTESTERS WANT HALT TO SANDS PROJECTS
More than 200 protesters marched on the legislature in Edmonton Saturday. They demanded a halt to any new oilsands projects in Alberta. The protest was organized by the Council of Canadians. Participants said oilsands projects around the Fort McMurray area have devastated the landscape, destroyed vegetation and wildlife and left an environmental disaster. The Alberta government says that cleanup and land-reclamation projects are restoring the landscape, but it admits a lot more must be done.

Sunday 02 November 2008 Oil prices up after record falls
Oil rises almost 3% on Friday - but falling demand pushes crude prices to their biggest monthly drop in October.

Friday 31 October 2008 CALGARY: IMPERIAL IMPROVES RESULTS
Imperial Oil Ltd., Canada's largest oil company, has announced a 70-per cent increase in profits for the quarter ending Sept. 30 to almost $1.4 billion. The integrated energy firm attributes the success to high oil prices and profits in all of its various businesses, including oil production refining, petrochemical and gasoline sales.

OPEC cuts, but crude keeps falling (01:12)
Oct 24 - Ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, agree to a 1.5 million barrel per day production cut, but it does little to stop the price slide.
The price of crude oil has been falling since the summer, as many countries fall into recession and demand for energy has slumped.

Monday 20 October 2008 DAWSON CREEK: VILLAGERS EXPRESS CONCERN OVER PIPELINE ATTACKS
Concerns about two recent bomb attacks on gas pipelines in northwestern British Columbia prompted some 200 people to attend a public meeting in Dawson Creek on Friday night. Many local people are opposed to the rapid expansion of the gas business in western Canada. The recent attacks caused no injuries and minor damages to the pipeline. But the gas could prove fatal to humans exposed to it. Canada's federal police force is investigating the pipeline explosions. Several police officers who attended the meeting told the audience that it's simply not possible to patrol every stretch of the hundreds of kilometres of pipeline through the area.

Friday 17 October 2008 DAWSON CREEK: PIPELINE AGAIN ATTACKED
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police says it has deployed its national terrorism unit to investigate two explosions along natural gas pipelines in northern British Columbia. The RCMP says the latest explosion appears to have been a deliberate act similar to a blast along the same facility earlier on Saturday. The explosion occurred near Dawson Creek, near the border with neighbouring Alberta. The pipeline did not rupture. It is owned by energy firm Encana Inc., which also owns the other pipeline targeted. No one has claimed responsibility but the RCMP think it may be related to a letter sent to news media earlier in the week demanding a shutdown of oil and gas projects by Saturday. Both blasts targeted pipelines conveying sour gas, which is natural gas containing toxic hydrogen sulphide. Critics of sour gas development fear the substance endangers the health of nearby residents. Sour gas can be fatal if inhaled.

Monday 13 October 2008 Oil plunges to 13-month low
Global slowdown fears rattle market as IEA cuts demand forecast

Monday 15 September 2008 UNITED STATES
Americans have been told they should brace for possible gas shortages because Texas oil refineries have been disabled by Hurricane Ike. Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison says that the refineries might not be running to full capacity for up to nine day. Meanwhile, officials in the city of Huston have declared a weeklong night-time curfew in the city, which was hard hit by the huricane. Most of the city is without power, the streets are littered with debris, and police are worried about the safety of residents who refused to evacuate before the storm hit. Hundreds of people have been rescued. Crews are still canvassing neighbourhoods hit by the storm surge.

Thursday 28 August 2008 OTTAWA: FINGERS OF BLAME POINTED FOR HIGH GAS PRICES
Retailers and refiners blamed each other for the high prices of gasoline. The fingers were pointed during testimony before the House of Commons subcommittee on oil and gas. Committee members are trying to find out how the price of a barrel of crude oil jumped from US$70 to well above US$140 in one year. While the price has fallen since July, gasoline prices have not fallen as quickly. The president of the Canadian Independent Petroleum Marketers Association, Jane Savage, says retailers aren't to blame for high gas prices but that the culprits are speculators in oil markets and the few refiners who set the benchmark prices that retailers pay. But the president of the Canadian Petroleum Products Institute, Peter Boag, denied it, says that refiners have seen their profits lowered by high world oil prices. Mr. Boag also told MPs that Canadians pay the second-lowest prices in the Western world for petroleum products.

Wednesday 20 August 2008 ST. JOHN'S: OFFSHORE OIL PROJECT A GO
The long-delayed Hebron offshore oil project in the east coast province of Newfoundland and Labrador will officially be launched on Wednesday. Premier Danny Williams says his government has signed an agreement with the consortium in charge of the $5-billion project. The main partners in the project are ExxonMobil Oil Canada, Chevron Canada Resources, Petro-Canada, Norsk Hydro and the government itself. The parties concluded a tentative agreement last August after lengthy arguments that ended in the government receiving a 4.9-per cent equity share in Hebron. The development is expected to produce 200,000 barrels of crude oil a day for 25 years.

Aug 17 2008 The Elephant in the Tank
EXCLUSIVE: Intel's former C.E.O. Andy Grove says high-profile plans by Boone Pickens and Al Gore don't tackle the single most dangerous energy issue facing America.
To drill or not to drill? That has been the question this summer as Congress, the president, and both candidates debate where and whether we should be exploring for domestic oil. The implication is that this is an important step in reducing our dependence on imported oil. I

Saturday 16 August 2008 VANCOUVER: ENERGY EXPLORATION SHIFTS PROVINCES
The government of the Western provinces of British Columbia and Saskatchewan earned $745 million on Thursday in their latest auctions of drilling rights for oil and natural gas. The figure for B-.C. was $502 million and for Saskatchewan $243 million. Both auctions were their second-biggest. At the present rate, both would surpass such transactions in the country's main energy province, Alberta, where many of the most important lots for drilling rights have already been sold. Oil and natural gas have now become B.C.'s most important exports, surpassing forestry products, forestry now being mired in deep depression.

Friday 15 August 2008 LONDON: SHELL GUILTY OF MISLEADING ADS ABOUT OILSANDS
The Shell group of oil firms has been found guilty of false advertising in the UK for having praised its investments in Canada's oilsands region as representing "sustainable development." Britain's advertising regulator has ruled that Shell's ad in the Financial Times newspaper was deceitful because it failed to explain how Shell controls carbon emissions in its oilsands projects. The World Wildlife Fund had complained about the ad to the regulator. Many environmentalists have denounced oilsands production because

Oil Falls Again as the Dollar Strengthens
On Monday, oil traded below $113 a barrel, its lowest level since early May, and the euro, so strong for so long, tumbled below $1.49, its weakest level since February.

Tuesday 05 August 2008 Oil price falls further to $118
Oil prices touch $118 a barrel, the lowest price for three months, as figures indicate supplies are rising.

Friday Jul 25, 2008 Oil prices masking 'export recession'
Oil prices rebounded from a seven-week low yesterday in what traders said was technical trading and a short-covering bounce...

Thursday 24 July 2008 Arctic 'has 90bn barrels of oil'
The Arctic holds some 90bn barrels of oil, equal to Russia's known reserves, according to US government data.

A new study says that the equivalent of 112 billion barrels of oil lie undiscovered beneath the ice and water of the North American Arctic. The report by the U.S. Geological Survey reports that the deposits comprise oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The report says that 412 billion barrels of oil equivalent lie undiscovered north of the Arctic Circle, most of it off the coast of Russia. Two of the areas off North America are in dispute, Canada and the U.S. arguing about their border in waters of the Beaufort Sea, with Canada and Denmark arguing about the border between Baffin Island and Greenland.

Thursday Jul 24, 2008 Alaska approves pipeline
Alaska's House of Representatives voted late Tuesday to allow TransCanada Corp. to build a massive pipeline to tap the vast...

Wednesday 23 July 2008 Oil prices continue on downwards
The price of oil keeps on sliding as US demand wanes and a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico takes a favourable course.

Wednesday 16 July 2008 Oil prices tumble as stockpiles increase
...Light, sweet crude for August delivery is down $6.44 (U.S.) at $132.30 a barrel in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Thursday 10 July 2008 OTTAWA: HIGH OIL PRICES REPORTED DOING MORE HARM THAN GOOD
A report by the Bank of Montreal says that soaring oil prices are having an overall negative impact on Canadians and their economy. Douglas Porter, BMO's deputy chief economist, writes that the conventional wisdom has been that the economy benefits on net from higher oil prices because of the country's role as a major and growing energy exporter. But Mr. Porter says that consumers are paying a steep price in terms of high gasoline, electricity and heating expenses. The economist notes that fuel costs have risen to a point at which households spending a record seven per cent of their revenues on energy. Mr. Porter writes as well that industry is suffering greatly from higher production costs and the slowdown in the world and U.S. economies due to fuel costs. According to the economist, the turning point came when the price of a barrel of oil reached US$120. It was trading at about $137 on Wednesday.

Thursday 03 July 2008 NEW YORK: CRUDE PRICE HITS PEAK
The price of light, sweet crude for August delivery closed at a record US$143.57 a barrel on Wednesday, after rising earlier in the day as high as US$144.15. The closing price was US$2.60 above Tuesday's close. The development coincided with a report by the U.S. energy department that crude oil supplies fell by two million barrels last week. Traders expressed fear of possible attacks against Iran, the world's fourth-biggest oil producer, a development that could impel that nation to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. About 40 per cent of the worlld's oil tanker tanker traffic passes through the Strait.

Tuesday 01 July 2008 IRAQ
The government has opened up six immense oilfields to foreign firms. Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani says that the six oilfields are "the backbone of Iraqi oil production," and that with its vast reserves his country ought to be the second- or third-biggest oil producer. Opponents of the 2003 war that toppled the government of the late dictator Saddam Hussein who have claimed that the conflict was aimed at allowing Western oil companies access to Iraq's oil wealth are certain to have been angered by the development. Iraq's oil-producing neighbours Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE keep production under the control of state energy firms.

Sunday 29 June 2008 CALGARY: GAS, OIL PRICES RIDING JUGGERNAUT
A Canadian bank predicts that gasoline and oil prices have only just begun to take off. Canadian Imperial Bank of Canada forecasts that drivers will be paying $1.43 a litre this summer, compared with about $1.23 a litre now, and that it will thus cost about $80 to fill a tank. The report also sees the price of a barrel of crude oil at US$150 by 2010, which will soar to US$225 a barrel four years later.

June 25, 2008 (Runs 8:33) Running on Empty
What is driving this recent rise in oil prices? And is there anything we can do to stop it? Kelly Crowe talks to three experts, each with a different explanation

Tuesday 24 June 2008 DOHA: MINISTER CAUTIONS AGAINST EXCESSIVE OPTIMISM ON OIL PRICES
Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn says there isn't an instant solution to the problem of soaring oil prices. Mr. Lunn spoke to the CTV television network after the weekend summit of oil producers and consumers which Saudi Arabia had convoked in Jidda. Mr. Lunn says participants agreed that there should be co-operation to bring stability to markets but the markets themselves have to determine prices. The Saudis have blamed speculation, the low U.S. dollar and high fuel taxes for the recent rise of prices.

Monday 16 June 2008 Saudi oil output to rise in July
Saudi Arabia will increase its oil production by 200,000 barrels a day from July, its oil minister tells the United Nations.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi (image from May 2008)

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi made the oil pledge to Mr Ban on Sunday

Saudi Arabia will increase its oil production by 200,000 barrels a day next month in a move to meet growing world demand, the United Nations says.

The news was announced after UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon met Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi in Jeddah for talks on the high oil price.

Sunday 15 June 2008 Plan Would Lift Saudi Oil Output to Highest Ever
Saudi Arabia’s plan to boost production next month was seen as a sign that the Saudis are nervous about the political and economic effect of high oil prices.

Sunday 15 June 2008 Finance ministers of the Group of Eight industrialized countries, including Canada's Jim Flaherty, ended two days of meetings in Osaka, Japan, on Saturday, vowing to work together to address common problems. The G-8 ministers issued a statement saying that rising oil and commodity prices are threatening global growth. However, they delayed taking any concrete measures until further analysis of the price hikes emerge. The G-8 also called on oil-producing nations to raise production and called for aid to address a looming food crisis in developing nations.

Saturday 14 June 2008 QUEBEC GASOLINE FIRMS GUILTY OF RIGGING PRICES
The federal Competition Bureau has revealed that 11 gas companies and 13 individuals have been found guilty of price-fixing at gas stations in Quebec. The stations found guilty included stations with the Shell, Esso, Petro-Canada, Irving Oil and Ultramar banners but explained that the companies weren't guilty but rather local operators. One company, Ultramar Ltée., was fined $1.9 million and one of its employees fined $50,000. The Bureau says a $2-million fine was levelled against three of the companies and one person who pleaded guilty of conspiracy. The competition watchdog says its investigators found that station operators in such cities as Victoriaville, Thetford Mines, Magog and Sherbrooke telephoned each other to agree on prices.

Thursday Jun 12, 2008 Cut rates, rethink biofuels, OECD urges
The federal government should establish a fund into which it puts windfall revenues from soaring prices for oil and other...

Tuesday 10 June 2008 OTTAWA: OIL TO BE TOP SUBJECT FOR G8 MINISTERS
The federal finance department says that the surge of crude oil prices will top the agenda at the meeting to be attended on Friday and Saturday in Osaka, Japan, by Canada's finance minister, Jim Flaherty, and his G8 counterparts. Officials revealed that the soaring prices have become a concern since the ministers last met in April. The officials say they don't think the trend is the result of speculation but that the ministers will receive a report on the issue from the International Monetary Fund. The sources say that the department interprets the evidence indicates that the price of oil is being driven by high demand from countries like China and India. The officials also noted at a briefing that part of the problem is that some countries, including China, subsidize oil prices, thus negating market forces that would drive demand downwards when prices are high.

Monday 09 June 2008 Oil Prices Raise Cost of Making Range of Goods
Companies that make hard goods using raw materials derived from oil are seeing their costs skyrocket and are pondering difficult choices.

Saturday Jun 7, 2008 Oil jumps nearly 9% higher to record US$139
Oil prices could top US$150 by July 4, one of the busiest U.S. travel holidays, as strong demand in Asia triggers a slowdown in shipments of crude to the United States, investment bank Morgan Stanley said.
"We are calling for a short-term spike in oil prices," the bank said in a research note.

Friday 30 May 2008 As Oil Prices Soar, Restaurant Grease Thefts Rise
The value of processed fryer oil has increased in recent months to historic highs, and there have been reports of thefts from restaurants in multiple states.

Thursday 29 May 2008 Oil stocks still a bargain
It's a matter of when, not if, commodity analysts come out with new, higher targets

Friday 23 May 2008 Double, oil and trouble
The price of oil is beyond $130 a barrel. Where will it stop?

Wednesday 21 May 2008 The Cassandra of Oil Prices
An analyst who heard scoffing when he predicted $100-a-barrel oil now expects the price to reach $200.
An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas at $4 a gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives.

Wednesday May 14, 2008 Oil surges as Iran mulls cut in output
Oil surged to a record peak near $127 yesterday after OPEC producer Iran said it was studying a plan...

Wednesday 30 April 2008 CALGARY: NEXEN EARNINGS PHENOMENAL
Nexen Inc. says it made a first-quarter profit of $630 million, an increase of 421 per cent over the result a year earlier. The company attributes its excellent quarterly fortunes to strong production and high commodity prices. CEO Charlie Fisher says that his company has now become reconciled with the new royalties rates announced fall by the government of Premier Ed Stelmach. Nexen was one of a series of energy firms which reacted by reducing capital spending in the province. Mr. Fisher told shareholders at the annual meeting that the company is sufficiently encouraged by an improved situation to consider restarting study to develop coalbed methane holdings in central Alberta. Despite having spent $170 million last year in exploration and development of its CBM assets, Nexen stopped the project as part of a $1.2 billion decrease in total spending. Earlier in the month, the government said it would spend more than $1 billion over next five years on programs designed to encourage new deep gas and CBM wells, which Mr. Fischer says restore the economics of the project.

WASHINGTON: ALBERTANS PRESS OILSANDS CAUSE
Alberta's envoy to the U.S., Garry Mar, reports that the province expects an energy working group to classify oilsands fuel as a conventional resource to avoid a restriction on imported energy products. An energy bill approved last year forbids the U.S. government to buy "alternative" fuels that produce more greenhouse gas than other sources. Canada argues that oil from the oilsands is processed in conventional facilities. Mr. Mar says a favourable finding by the working group would be helpful, but that that wouldn't rule out legal action. A coalition of environmentalists wants Canada to slow oilsands projects. Alberta Deputy Premier Ron Stevens joins Mr. Mar in Washington this week to lobby lawmakers and officials.

Saturday Apr 26, 2008 $200 a barrel oil? $75 is more likely
Hang on to your hats as oil shoots above $200 a barrel over the next few years, warns a new forecast from a leading Canadian...

Oil price jumps more than $2
Back above $118. Supply disruptions, heightened tensions in Persian Gulf cited
Oil prices jumped more than $2 to above $118 a barrel yesterday on supply disruptions in Nigeria and the North Sea and fresh tensions between the United States and Iran.

Oil hovers near $115 record high

Oil prices are hovering close to $115 a barrel, having crossed the record mark on Thursday after a US inventory report raised concerns about supplies.

US light, sweet crude oil pulled back slightly to $114.82 in New York from the previous day's $115.21 high.

Wednesday 16 April 2008 NEW YORK: OIL SOARS TO RECORD HIGH
Oil traders on Tuesday pushed prices as high as high as $113.99 a barrel before the price closed at $113.79, up $2.03 from the record close on Monday. Light sweet crude for May delivery went as high as $114.08. Concerns about global supply evidently stoked the trading, due in part to a report by the International Energy Agency that warned that Russian oil production will drop this year for the first time in a decade. Gasoline rose as well, with the American Automobile Association reporting a new average U.S. price of $3.386 a gallon. Analysts predict that prices will keep rising with the oncome of summer.

Saturday 22 March 2008 CALGARY: U.S. APPROVE TRANSCANADA GAS PROJECT
The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved a project to build a liquefied natural gas terminal in Long Island Sound that is proposed by TransCanada Corp. The Canadian firm's partner in the $1-billion Broadwater Energy LLC project is Royal Dutch Shell PLC. The Commission had deliberated for three years. The project, which still needs approval of several state agencies, would be the first floating LNG terminal in the U.S. It would deliver one billion cubic feet of natural gas a day, enough to fuel four million homes. The Commission rejected criticism by environmentalists that it would offer a tempting target for terrorists and industrialize the water of Long Island Sound, finding instead that the Broadwater project would safely meet the energy needs of New York City, Long Island and Connecticut.

Saturday 22 March 2008 Cheney in oil talks with Saudis

Dick Cheney (l) and King Abdullah in Riyadh (21 March 2008)

The US government wants Saudi Arabia to increase oil production

US Vice-President Dick Cheney has met Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah to discuss ways of stabilising the oil market.

US officials said there was "a lot of commonality" in the talks in Riyadh on the way to move forward in the global energy market.

Oil prices have risen about 16% this year, but the oil producers' cartel, Opec, has declined to raise output.

Saturday Mar 15, 2008 Running on empty?
Depending on whom you listen to, global oil production has peaked, will peak soon, or may not peak for a very long time.

Tuesday 11 March 2008 Oil sets fresh record above $109

Man changes prices at a petrol station in the US

The cost of petrol is soaring around the world

The price of crude oil has set a fresh record at $109.72, its fifth day in a row of historic highs.

New York light sweet crude fell back after hitting the high to trade at $107.15. London Brent set a record at $105.82, before retreating to $103.84.

Prices fell back after the dollar rose on news that central banks worldwide were teaming up to provide more cash to strained financial markets.

Thursday 06 March 2008 President Fails to Budge OPEC on Production
Record oil prices are suddenly creating the sharpest tensions in years between the oil cartel and the U.S.

Wednesday Mar 5, 2008 Oil falls 3% from record high
Oil tumbled nearly three per cent yesterday as rising U.S. inventories and a stock market slide prompted profit-taking ahead...
U.S. light crude for April delivery settled down $2.93 at $99.52 a barrel, off an all-time high of $103.95 hit Monday on expectations the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would hold output steady today.

Monday 11 February 2008 Venezuela threatens to cut US oil
Venezuela president threatens to cut off oil supplies to the US if it continues an "economic war".

Shifting sands: Canada, the world and the oil sands

Posted by Diana Thébaud Nicholson
February 4, 2008

Link to series, videos and more

Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
How low can oil prices go? - January 23, 2008
Oil prices have broken below the psychologically-important $90 level, leading speculators who have bet heavily on $100-plus oil to consider bailing out of the market. For real consumers, in contrast, this is good news – and the question is, how much better can it get?
There is a wide dispersion of views on the future. Just a year ago many thought oil prices were headed below $50, while today some believe they are headed above $100. A non-economist might wonder what changed during the past 12 months to account for such shifts. Certainly, the arguments that are made to support forecasts are not new – rapid growth in Asia, political risk in the Middle East, a perception that conventional sources of oil are drying up, and the like. Past issues | his WN page

Commentary podcast.

Saudi Arabia announced today that contrary to rumours of dwindling oil supplies, they have plenty of oil. In fact, with the most recent estimate, they said they have enough oil to keep screwing us for the next 300 years. - Jay Leno

Thursday 10 January 2008 RBC
Canadian Oil & Gas Research - The WCSB Issue of Scale: Go Big or Go Home
There are many factors that determine the performance of upstream activities such as management, quality of assets, asset class, company size or scale, etc. There exists an inverse relationship between size and historical F&D costs for WCSB conventional upstream activities for large-cap companies. Scale is important as it provides pricing power with respect to service costs, drilling flexibility inherently due to a large land position & infrastructure and permits meaningful exploration/R&D. RBC CM’s investment thesis is that value-creating opportunities exist for shareholders given the increasing motivation for consolidation or restructuring WCSB assets. Unless Petro Canada and Suncor can improve their upstream returns (scale being one issue), restructuring would be positive for shareholders. The value of PCA and SU's upstream WCSB business is $9-$10/share and $3-$4/share, respectively. Nexen’s WCSB conventional upstream business has struggled to create value over the past five years and unless its CBM/shale gas projects are successful, divestment is a serious option. Similarly, TLM's lack of growth combined with their F&D cost performance suggests re-examining its strategic options for its WCSB upstream assets. In part, due to their dominant size and scale, Encana and Canadian Natural Resources have been able to demonstrate reasonable financial upstream performance and even then, conventional production is flat or declining. The issue of creating sufficient scale is accelerating from the increasing maturity of the WCSB. With an industry natural gas decline rate of 19%, 20,000+ gas wells need to be drilled annually to maintain gas production while 5,000 additional gas wells are need to grow production 5% – assuming that many prospects exist. WCSB activities tend to favor producers such as CNQ and ECA given their size or scale. Opportunity exists for NXY, PCA, SU and TLM to create value or improve valuations under restructuring scenarios (lower impact on valuation for NXY and SU). The glass ceiling for WCSB upstream production now appears to be 200 mboe/d, where producers in this range appear to be unable to increase production organically without large-scale acquisitions.

Saturday 05 January 2008 TORONTO: CANADIANS WARNED ABOUT RISING PRICES
Some oil industry analysts say Canadian motorists should prepare to pay at least $1.30 a litre for gasoline this summer, if oil prices stay above the 100-dollar a barrel mark. They say the cost for food, transportation and other services could also go up. Gasoline demand in January is typically low. But Cathy Hay of M.J. Ervin and Associates says if crude oil prices are at the levels they are now when the spring and summer driving seasons start, Canadians can expect sharply higher prices at the pumps. Those prices are already creeping up, hitting as high as $1.16 per litre in some parts of Canada.

Friday 04 January 2008 CALGARY: HIGH CRUDE EQUALS HIGH GASOLINE
Gasoline prices in some parts of Canada are creeping up as crude oil continues to hover around $100 a barrel. The website Gasbuddy.com says the Canadian national average is around $1.07 per litre - up a cent from Wednesday. The average price in Newfoundland and Labrador shot up about three cents to $1.17 per litre from a day ago, going as high as $1.29 in southern Labrador. In oil-rich Alberta, prices were just shy of 98 cents per litre - the lowest provincial average in the country.

Friday 04 January 2008 Volatility of the Markets Carries On in 2008
Oil’s $100-a-barrel price flirtation suggests that traders will see more of the escalation in energy markets that marked the final months of 2007.
Crude oil futures for February delivery hit $100 on the New York Mercantile Exchange shortly after noon when a single trader bid up the price by buying a modest lot and then selling it immediately at a small loss. Prices eased somewhat in later trading, settling at $99.62.

Jan 3rd 2008
From The Economist print edition

Oil keeps getting more expensive—but not because it is running out

NEW YEAR'S EVE has been and gone, but for oilmen, the party continues. On January 2nd, helped across the line by a New York trader eager for bragging rights, the first business day of the year, the price of their product topped $100 a barrel for the first time. Oil is now almost five times more expensive than it was at the beginning of 2002.

It would be natural to assume that ever increasing price reflects ever greater scarcity. And so it does, in a sense. Booming bits of the world, such as China, India and the Middle East have seen demand for oil grow with their economies. Meanwhile, Western oil firms, in particular, are struggling to produce any more of the stuff than they did two or three years ago. That has left little spare production capacity and, in America at least, dwindling stocks. Every time a tempest brews in the Gulf of Mexico or dark clouds appear on the political horizon in the Middle East, jittery markets have pushed prices higher. This week, it was a cold snap in America and turmoil in Nigeria that helped the price reach three figures.

Thursday Jan 3, 2008 Manufacturers groan while energy companies rejoice Crude oil at $100 a barrel has beneficial effects for producer countries, but hampers consumer nations...

Thursday Jan 3, 2008 Hang in - high oil likely won't last
What's the cure for high oil prices? High oil prices. see energy-power

2 January 2008 nsnbc Oil $100

Tuesday 01 January 2008 Oil slipped to just below $96 U.S. a barrel Monday, closing 2007 with the biggest annual gain this decade. U.S. crude futures settled 2 cents lower at $95.98 a barrel. The price of oil has quadrupled in four years, driven by surging demand from China and other developing economies, alongside OPEC production cuts, a weak U.S. dollar, and rising geopolitical turmoil

2007

Wednesday 12 December 2007 Conventional Oil & Gas Trusts – Commodity Price Update
RBC Capital Markets has revised its commodity price assumptions for the remainder of 2007, and for calendar years 2008 and 2009. The assumption changes reflect the continued strength in crude oil, and the on-going weakness that persists inatural gas. The Canadian dollar has retreated back to par versus the U.S dollar, and the Analysts’ are assumthat the currency will remain at pthrough 2009. The revised crude oestimates reflect a price of $85.50/bbfor 2008 (up from $76.50/bbl) and $84.00/bbl for 2009 (up from $74.00/bbl). With regards to natural gas, the Analysts’ have reducedforecast down $0.25/mcf in eto $7.00 from ($6.75) in 2008 and $7.00 (from $7.25) in 2009. RBCCapital Markets believes that the conventional oil and gas trust sector market is dealing with three concerns right now. These are 1) The prospect of trust taxation, which is now 3 yeaway; 2) The potential for distributiocuts, as trusts try to "live within their means" in light of weak natural gas prices; and 3) Fund redemptions ofsome of the large trust unitholders. Overall, RBC Capital Markets has increased its price targets by ~3%, with the biggest increases among the oil weighted trusts. RBC CM;s best ideas among the upstream-only trusts are ARC (AET.UN), Baytex (BTE.UN), Bonavista (BNP.UN), NAL (NAE.UN) and Zargon (ZAR.UN). The team also likes Harvest (HTE.UN) (which harefinery exposure) and Provident (PVE.UN) (midstream exposure).

Wednesday 05 December 2007 Husky said the deal with BP has prompted it to postpone again the planned expansion of its heavy oil upgrading plant in Lloydminster on the Alberta-Saskatchewan border.
Husky and BP forge US$5.5B oilsands alliance
CALGARY -- Husky Energy Inc. and longtime oilsands holdout BP PLC have struck a major deal to combine oilsands assets in Alberta with BP's refinery in Toledo, Ohio.
thanks Robert Travers

Tuesday 04 December 2007 CALGARY: ENBRIDGE PIPELINE FIXED
The pipeline between Canada and the U.S. that accounts for 16 per cent of the oil exported to the U.S. is back in operation after a fatal accident last Wednesday. Two workers in the state of Minnesota died while trying to put out a fire. Enbridge, Canada's biggest pipeline firm, says it has replaced a 55-metre segment and that the pipeline carrying crude oil between the western province of Saskatchewan to Chicago is operating normally. The cause of the fire is under investigation.

National Post - Sunday, Nov. 25, 2007Oil-rich states can skew other sectors
... Oil-rich states can skew other sectors. New wealth will lead to massive asset bubbles.
Sean Silcoff, Financial Post Published: Monday, November 26, 2007. ...

Oil and Gas Commodity Price Deck Change RBC CM increased its 2008 natural gas price forecast to $7.50/Mcf from $7.00/Mcf. Current storage levels are at 3.5 Tcf, 106 Bcf above last year and 301 Bcf above the 5-yr average. While inventories continue to remain at all-time highs, RBC CM does not foresee natural gas prices weakening at this time. Gas prices are expected to remain between $7-$8/Mcf until winter weather shows some clear direction. Currently, the consensus is calling for a colder winter relative to last year and the past 10-years, although that perspective has warmed from initial cooler expectations. Strong crude prices and some winter anticipation have put a floor on gas prices.

RBC CM has increased its 2008 WTI oil price forecast from $60.00 to $70.00. Oil prices have shown remarkable strength in 2007 as a result of fears of future supply disruption, worries about the ability of OPEC to increase production and pure investor exuberance. The current price is $10-$15 ahead of the fundamentals as there is a premium for potential future supply disruption and/or investor speculation. The current supply cushion is reasonable enough to withstand some minor disruption as there is currently 3.0 MMBopd of OPEC spare capacity and RBC CM expects non-OPEC production growth of 800,000 Bopd in the next 12 months. RBC CM expects to see the oil market soften from current levels in Q1 once it becomes clear that supplies are more than adequate to get us through the winter.

Saturday 01 December 2007 CALGARY: ROYALTY CHANGE CAUSES PETROCAN TO REORIENT
Petro-Canada says the high royalties for oil and natural gas which the Alberta government will impose won't interfere with its profitable oilsands projects at MacKay River and Fort Hills. The government announced in October that it will collect $1.4 billion a year in higher royalties. PetroCan CEO Ron Brenneman added, however, that the company's spending for exploration will shift to the U.S. Rocky Mountains, the Baltic Sea and the eastern Arctic. Mr. Brenneman says he excited by the prospect of beginning to exploit the estimated 12 trillion cubic feet of natural gas which PetroCan owns in the latter region.

October 29, 2007

Friday 23 November 2007 OTTAWA: CHINA'S NEED OF OIL AND MINERALS FUELLING CANADA'S COMMODITY PRICES
The Bank of Canada says that China's thirst for oil and minerals will drive upwards world commodities for years to come and be a key factor in the global demand for Canadian commodities. The central bank's fall review notes that China's economy has been expanding by almost 10 per cent a year and there's no sign that that rate will decline. The bank's report on the subject says that in 2002 China bought 13 per cent of the world's production of metal ores, a figure which increased to 25 per cent only three years later. The Canadian economy has been powered by the rise of global commodity prices since 2002, the year when the Canadian dollar began its rise from below US70 cents to parity this year.

Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
As owner of some 25% of the world's known oil reserves, Saudi Arabia has lately redefined what it means to strike it rich. Oil revenues are approaching $1 billion per day, and the money is fuelling a building and diversification boom without precedent. Past issues | his WN page

Commentary podcast.

TORONTO: IRVING EMPIRE REPORTED BREAKING UP
The Globe and Mail newspaper reports that the New Brunswick-based empire of the Irving family is going to be broken up. The $6-billion Irving fortune is the third-biggest in Canada. According to the newspaper, the end of the 125-year-old Irving business is due to disagreement of the succession of a new family generation. The Irvings have a gamut of interests including energy, forestry, retail, trucking and news media properties. The business is run by the three sons of K.C. Irving who are now in their 70s. The Globe asked 79-year-old J.K. Irving whether the different branches would become independent of each other, to which he replied, "that's the evolution taking place today." One unnamed source told the newspaper that the ownership structure put into place by K.C. Irving cannot survive and that the Irving business as it is today is coming to an end.

Tuesday 20 November 2007 SAUDI ARABIA
Delegates at the OPEC summit in Riyadh pledged on Sunday to maintain what they called adequate and timely supplies of oil. Some delegates had urged the group to debate the consequences of a weakened American dollar, but the group's final communique made no mention of it. OPEC charges its exports in American dollars, so that a weaker dollar means less profits. The OPEC leaders also addressed criticism that they are failing to contribute enough to fight global warming. Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qater each pledged US$150 million and Saudi Arabia pledged $300 million towards research into climate change and the environment.

Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Bubble, Bubble, Oil in Trouble? - November 14, 2007
Black gold is on a tear again. Oil prices are currently within a hair of the psychologically-sensitive $100 mark, and the trajectory is steep. This is perhaps good news for the oil patch, but given oil’s effect on the Canadian dollar, many are worried. Will the price spike last?
Oil was making headlines of a different sort at the beginning of this year. Markets seemed convinced that conditions were more balanced – North America was surviving the winter heating season, and global growth indeed seemed to be slowing. Prices descended to the $50 per barrel zone in January, and the talk on the street turned to price floors. OPEC was worried about keeping oil at $40, and financial strategists were recommending a shift out of energy holdings. Past issues | his WN page

Commentary podcast.

Sunday 04 November 2007 UNDATED: OIL PRICES SOAR
In New York, light sweet crude rallied 96 cents to $54.45 a barrel. It hit a record high of $96.24 on Thursday. In Vienna, the OPEC cartel reported that its "basket price" jumped to a record $87.61. The basket price is the reference price for output policies of the cartel. It rose about $85 for the first time on Monday.

Wednesday 31 October 2007

Articles

How High Can Oil Go?

The fundamentals simply don't justify current price levels. "By every supply and demand standard, the oil market is nowhere as tight as it was in 2004 [when oil was fetching about $50 a barrel], yet prices are nearly double now," says Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets. One factor contributing to the higher cost of oil is the dollar's ongoing decline. Crude oil producers are able to...
Read More...

Saturday 27 October 2007 CALGARY:ROYALTY MELTDOWN DOESN'T MATERIALIZE
The selloff of oil and natural gas stocks that some analysts had predicted because of the Alberta government's royalties increase announced on Thursday didn't pan out. The TSX energy sector actually gained .17 per cent in trading on Friday, as the global price of crude oil hit new heights. The barrel of crude closed at US$91.86 on the Nymex. Shares of companies like EnCana Corp., Suncor Energy and Canadian Oil Sands Trust declined slightly, but shares of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Imperial Oil, the country's largest integrated oil and gas producer, actually rose. PetroCanada, meanwhile, announced that it will carry on with early engineering work on two energy projects worth $15 billion. On Thursday evening, Premier Ed Stelmach said the government will raise royalties by $1.4 billion a year staring in 2009. An independent panel had recommended they rise by $2 billion yearly starting next summer. more Alberta

Wednesday 17 October 2007 CALGARY: ASIAN BILLIONAIRE EXPANDS HOLDINGS IN OILPATCH
A Hong Kong-based firm controlled by Asia's richest man, Li Kashing, has bought TransAlta LP, one of Canada's biggest power trusts, for $629 million. His CKI firm says it will pay unit holders $8.39 per unit. TransAlta LP had been controlled by TransAlta Corp. CKI says the transaction is part of an effort to establish itself in North America's energy sector. Li Kashing already controls Calgary-based Husky Energy Inc. TransAlta Power put itself up for sale in May, saying that the federal government's decision to tax trusts at the same rates as corporations meant that its business model was no longer in the best interest of the unitholders.

Oct. 16 - Crude prices touched $88 for the first time, amid a six-day rally, as geopolitcal tensions kept supply concerns running high.
Crude prices touched $88 for the first time, amid a six-day rally, as geopolitcal tensions kept supply concerns running high.The demand picture was also a contributing factor as America, the world's biggest consumer of heating oil, heads into the winter season.

Tuesday 16 October 2007 Oil Futures Nov. ’07 (OILC : NYMEX : US$86.13), Net Change: 2.44, % Change: 2.91%
World oil demand refuses to be 86’d. On October 10, we wrote: “Turkey’s government has ordered its army to ready itself for a potential incursion into Iraq to attack the Kurdistan Workers’ Part (PKK) in retaliation for killing 15 Turkish soldiers over the weekend. It’s just another source of potential instability for this oil-rich region.” Yesterday, that page-16th story hit the front page and affected oil prices. Turkish lawmakers vote this week whether to allow military attacks within a year against Kurdish rebel bases in the north of Iraq. America’s Congress is considering whether or not Turkey is guilty of genocide during WWI against the Armenians and this Turkish vote may be designed as a threat. Critics of the Congressional vote argue that Turkey is an ally in the Middle East the vote may cause Turkey to make America’s life in Iraq more difficult. Separately, OPEC said its estimate for world oil demand growth in 2007 remains intact despite the dramatic increase in price. They still hold to a 1.3 million barrel per day increase, or 1.5% growth. They added that while Q3 demand is “normally a low season for world oil demand,” demand for Q3 “is forecast to be strong.” Their 2008 estimate remains unchanged.

A place apart

Oct 11th 2007 | ST JOHN'S
From The Economist print edition

Heard the one about the rich Newfoundlander?

Time to swap migrants for tourists

WRAPPED in Atlantic mists and storms three hours' flying time east of Ottawa, it was only in 1948 that Newfoundland and Labrador voted by a slim margin to relinquish its status as a British colony to become the tenth province in Canada. To judge from the number of pre-confederation flags in the capital, St John's, many still wonder if they made the right choice. The green, white and pink standard, resembling a washed-out Irish tricolour, is flown from rooftops, draped in shop windows, stencilled on T-shirts and even iced on cookies sold to tourists. “It represents a time when we had more pride,” says Mark Dobbin, the boss of a helicopter service company. “We're not that long in Canada and we haven't been treated very well,” he adds. more

Friday Oct 12, 2007 CALGARY, EDMONTON: ROYALTIES ISSUE ROILS WAVES
The recent report by an independent panel which claimed that the provincial government isn't getting its fair share of oil and natural gas royalties which ought to be raised by about 20 per cent continues to generate controversy in Alberta. Three junior oilsands firms have formed a political alliance to lobby against such an eventuality. Athabasca Oil Sands Corp., Laricina Energy Ltd. and MEG Energy Corp. issued a common statement in Calgary on Thursday saying that the authors of the report seem to have overlooked the fact that oilsands are "costly to develop and produce." The companies says the panel's report doesn't take account of the reality that smaller energy firms take huge risks and develop the technologies that drive Alberta's energy sector. Several of the big energy firms, including EnCana Corp. and Talisman Energy, have said they'll cut investment by between $500 million and $1 billion if the royalties rise by 20 per cent. Meanwhile in Edmonton, opposition NDP leader Brian Mason has demanded that Conservative Premier Ed Stelmach raise the royalties before calling an election. Mr. Mason suspects Mr. Stelmach might promise to do so beforehand and then renege on the promise afterwards because of his party's reliance on contributions from big energy firms.

Thursday 11 October 2007
Oil jumps close to record on supply worries
October 11, 2007 03:26 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil surged over 2 percent on Thursday, approaching its record high after a surprise decline in U.S. inventories stoked concerns about supplies in the world's top consumer ahead of winter.

Full Article

Wednesday 10 October 2007
Oil Future Nov ’07 (OILC : NYMEX : US$80.26), Net Change: 1.24, % Change: 1.57%
Coexistence: what the farmer does with the turkey - until Thanksgiving. Oil prices fell after Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B)said it would increase production from an oil terminal in Nigeria that they closed last year due to the violence. Also, two days ago, the company lifted a month long force majeure from its Forcados oil terminal. Force majeure is a legal condition which protects a company from not meeting contractual delivery obligations. The stronger U.S. dollar was another source of yesterday’s oil weakness. In unrelated news, Turkey’s government has ordered its army to ready itself for a potential incursion into Iraq to attack the Kurdistan Workers’ Part (PKK) in retaliation for killing 15 Turkish soldiers over the weekend. It’s just another source of potential instability for this oil-rich region.

Wednesday 10 October 2007 Cognos Inc. (CSN : TSX : $48.22 | COGN : NASDAQ : US$49.06)
SAO buys Business Objects
Blackmont Capital maintains "hold", 12-month target price is raised to US$57.00
BMO Capital Markets maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is raised to $58.00

Wednesday 10 October 2007 MONTREAL: TERRORIST REPORTED DRAWING A BEAD ON CANADA'S ENERGY SECTOR
Le Devoir newspaper reports that international terrorists have marked out Canada's energy industry as a legitimate target for attacks. The newspaper bases its report on sometimes heavily censored documents obtained under the federal Access to Information law. The documents obtained from the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service cite an al-Qaeda Internet Website as saying that the terrorist group considers attacks against oil and gas facilities in Canada, Mexico and Venezuela as advisable because they are major suppliers to the U.S. and could even supply enough energy to enable the Americans to do without oil from the Middle East altogether. Canada supplies about 17 per cent of the U.S. needs for oil and oil products. Canada has 19 oil refineries, including four in Sarnia, ON; and three each in Montreal and Edmonton, AB. The country has a network of oil and natural gas pipelines that extends 45,000 kilometres. The CSIS documents also express worry about attacks against Canada's electricity networks.

Wednesday Oct 10, 2007 OILPATCH GIANT REBELS CALGARY - Alberta heavyweight producer Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. said it may cancel three in-situ oilsands projects worth $7-billion, halt two major...natural-gas drilling would decline to only 128 wells in 2008, from a high of 692 in 2005, the company said.

CALGARY: ANOTHER ROYALTY WARNING ISSUED
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is the latest energy firm in Alberta to warn of consequences if the government of Premier Ed Stelmach acts on the recommendation of an independent panel that studied energy royalties to raise them by an average of 20 per cent. The panel said that oil and natural gas firms have shortchanged the government for years. Canadian Natural Resources, Alberta's second-biggest producer of natural gas and largest producer of heavy oil, claims that implementation the panel's report would in fact lead to a 50-per cent increase in royalties rather than 20 per cent. The company says that changes in income taxation, environmental regulation and inflation would make investment far less worthwhile and that the firm would in fact reduce it, with a loss of 3,900 fewer direct jobs and 16,000 fewer indirect positions among its contractors, with $7 billion less in investment in oilsands projects. A series of energy firms has expressed outrage over the panel's report and similarly threatened to reduce investment in Alberta.

Tuesday 09 October 2007 Oil prices tumble in quiet market
Traders debate what's ahead: a big rally or a big slide

Tuesday 09 October 2007 Wed1336 To add fuel to the flames of discussion you may want to pick up William Marsden’s recently published book, STUPID TO THE LAST DROP: HOW ALBERTA IS BRINGING ENVIRONMENTAL ARMAGEDDON TO CANADA (AND DOESN’T SEEM TO CARE). Failing that, read the Globe & Mail Review . The reviewer pounced on Mr. Marsden’s account of a ‘nutty’ plan hatched in the 1950s to release the oil mixed within Alberta’s gritty sand using an underground nuclear blast.

Monday 08 October 2007
Will offshore oil turn the province around?
LOOK closely at a time-zone map of the western hemisphere. You will see a small area carved out of the Atlantic zone off the east coast of Canada. There sits Newfoundland, which has its own time zone (NST: Newfoundland Standard Time), three and a half hours behind Greenwich Mean Time and half an hour ahead of eastern mainland Canada.
Being different, sometimes awkwardly so, comes naturally to Newfoundlanders. Latecomers to the Canadian federation—they only joined in 1949 after voting by the slimmest of margins to replace the hated rule of London with that of the equally distrusted government in Ottawa—they feel their history and culture make them at least as distinct as the Francophone Quebec, and entitled to the same special treatment.

Monday 08 October 2007 A very imp story by Diana Nicholson with links
STUPID TO THE LAST DROP: HOW ALBERTA IS BRINGING ENVIRONMENTAL ARMAGEDDON TO CANADA (AND DOESN’T SEEM TO CARE)

Thursday 04 October 2007 CALGARY: OILPATCH RESISTANCE GROWS TO ROYALTY INCREASE The former CEO of Talisman Energy, one of Canada's major energy firms, says that Talisman will cut $500 million of planned investment in Alberta if proposed increases of royalties are implemented. Jim Buckee warns in an open letter to the government of Premier Ed Stelmach that the sum would be added to the already booked $500 million decrease in investment because of low natural gas prices. A report by Auditor General Fred Dunn on Monday said that the government concealed information for at least three years that energy royalties could have been raised by at least $1 billion annually without harming the energy sector. The report recommends that the royalties be increased by an average of 20 per cent. Mr. Buckee says that if the recommendation becomes reality, there will be a "significant loss of investment, jobs, tax and the loss of world class technical expertise." Petro-Canada CEO Ron Brenneman also wrote an open letter to Mr. Stelmach complaining that the auditor general's report used a flawed analysis and that if its findings are implemented PetroCan will cut investment. Last week, another important energy firm, EnCana Corp., said it wasn't opposed to an increase in royalties, but that if the report by the auditor general is adopted fully, it will cut spending in the province by $1 billion next year.

Wednesday 26 September 2007 Oil Prices: Fresh all time highs on global oil prices favour more concerted action by governments to support alternative fuels policies. This in turn, supports higher demand (and therefore prices) for oil seeds, sugar, corn, sugar beets and other starch based products that can be used to make ethanol (i.e. wheat in Saskatchewan). Higher oil prices support fertilizer stocks through higher fertilizer demand to make more grains/oilseeds/sugars. For chemicals, higher oil prices hurt global demand. However, higher oil prices support higher gas and coal based realized methanol prices longer term. Recent China methanol spot prices have spiked up 35%.

Monday 24 September 2007 moreOttawa faces hit on higher royalties
Proposed changes to Alberta's oil and gas royalty regime could cost federal government hundreds of millions of dollars
Last week, a report commissioned by the Alberta government said the province hasn't been getting its "fair share" from its energy resources and advocated wholesale changes to its royalty structure, including substantial hikes to oil sands taxes and a new so-called "severance tax" that would recoup proportionally higher rates as commodity prices rise.
If the recommendations are implemented in full, energy firms would end up paying an estimated extra $2-billion a year in royalties and new taxes to Alberta.

Wednesday 19 September 2007
Oil Futures Oct. ’07 (OILC : NYMEX : US$81.51), Net Change: 0.94, % Change: 1.17%
Skid marks the spot. Oil traded nearly US$83.00/bbl after the Fed cut rates yesterday. Lower rates are very bullish for oil because it supports economic growth and energy consumption. Most analysts have are forecasting for oil to trade in the range of US$65.00 to US$70.00/bbl over the coming year. With oil at US$83.00/bbl that's very bullish no? Similar to gold stocks, shares of oil producers are seemingly lagging the move in the underlying commodity. Some analysts will say that the upshot in many oil stocks has been muted because of the production hedges that the companies have in place. Do we really believe that or do we really believe that this rally in oil prices can’t be sustained? The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will release its update of Petroleum Inventories for the week ended September 14, 2007 at 10:30 AM EST. As at September 18, median estimates from 16 analysts show: 2.0 million barrel decrease to crude

UNITED STATES The price of a barrel of oil set another record on Monday, approaching $81 a barrel, fuelled in part by persistent uncertainly about supply. The price climbed by 1.47 of a cent to end the day at $80.57, a new record high. Since reaching $80 last Wednesday, the prices has continued to reach new highs.

Thursday 13 September 2007 Compromise on Oil Law in Iraq Seems to Be Collapsing
BAGHDAD, Sept. 12 — A carefully constructed compromise on a draft law governing Iraq’s rich oil fields, agreed to in February after months of arduous talks among Iraqi political groups, appears to have collapsed. The apparent breakdown comes just as Congress and the White House are struggling to find evidence that there is progress toward reconciliation and a functioning government here. Oil hits record over $80
September 13, 2007 03:51 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil hit an all-time high over $80 a barrel on Thursday after Hurricane Humberto forced the closure of some U.S. Gulf refiners, stoking supply concerns amid falling inventories in the world's top consumer.

Full Article

Thursday 13 September 2007 ec After lots of cajoling from Saudi Arabia, OPEC's members agreed to increase their output of oil by 500,000 barrels a day, the first official rise in two years. The cartel hopes the increase in supply, albeit very small, will signal that it is doing something to contain oil prices, which nevertheless continued trading at record highs after the agreement.

Monday 20 August 2007 OTTAWA: ENERGY COMPANIES FEAR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE OF TRADE SECRETS
A new study says that Canadian energy companies are refusing to share critical data with federal officials out of fear that sensitive information will become public through the Access to Information Act. Documents obtained under the access law suggest that government officials lack the information needed to plan properly. A unit within the Natural Resources Department concluded that oil, gas, pipeline and power companies are reluctant to trust Ottawa with information about their vulnerabilities to natural disaster or terrorist attack. The small Energy Infrastructure Protective Division was created in 2002 following the 2001 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, D.C. The document praises the unit but also found that the unit's work is hampered because energy executives see the national freedom-of-information law as a threat. Private-sector energy officials oversee about 85 per cent of Canada's energy infrastructure.

Wednesday 01 August 2007 VANCOUVER: LNG PROJECT TRANSFERRED
WestPac LNG President Mark Butler says that the company has decided to transfer a planned liquefied natural gas import terminal from Prince Rupert, BC, south to Texada Island, in the Georgia Strait between the mainland and Vancouver Island. Mr. Butler says that despite two years of planning to create the LNG terminal at Prince Rupert, the cost of construction there had gone out of control. The $2-billion project is to include a gas-fired power plant.

Wednesday 01 August 2007 rci CALGARY: U.S. FIRM BUYS INTO OILSANDS U.S. refiner Marathon Oil Corp. and Western Oil Sands have announced a friendly acquisition of the Canadian operation for $6.6 billion, in the latest venture by American energy companies to lock into a reliable supply from Alberta's oilsands. Western owns a 20-per cent share of the huge Athabasca Oil Sands Project in the north of the province. The Canadian firm said in November it was open to a merger or a takeover. Western CEO Jim Houck says the transaction would enable the company shareholders to benefit "across the total value chain" through Marathon's refinery profits. Earlier in the day, oilsands pioneer Suncor Energy filed a plan for a $4.4-billion expansion of its operations near Fort McMurray that would boost production by 120,000 barrels a day. On Monday, Shell Canada applied for regulatory approval to spend $27 billion to build a huge upgrading facility near its operations east of Edmonton that would process 400,000 barrels a day of oilsands crude.

Thursday 26 July 2007 EDMONTON: EXPERTS DISAGREE ON OILSANDS DEVELOPMENT
A committee tasked with delineating the future of the oilsands industry in Canada's main energy-producing province, Alberta, has disagreed on major points, particularly whether there should be a moratorium on their development. The committee members were environmentalists, business people and government officials, who clashed over whether development should be halted until labour and housing shortages have been resolved. The energy industry rejected the idea that a cap for air emissions from new upgraders should be imposed. The industry and government officials also rejected environmentalists' suggestion that the use of water from the Athabasco River be limited. One environmentalist committee member predicted that Albertans will be disappointed that the industry and the government were inflexible on key issues. The committee's chairman said there was in fact agreement on 96 points, saying he regrets that there wasn't on the issue of development.

Tuesday 24 July 2007 CANADIAN OIL & GAS: SUMMER VACATION VALUATIONS – HITTING THE WALL.
Our senior and oil sands sector has jumped 4% since the beginning of June, essentially led by an uplift in the senior valuations and effectively removing much of the upside to our names (NXY at 7% return and OPC with 3% upside left). As a result, the 20% upside we had for the sector in January 2007 has now vanished, with a median 5% downside as of close yesterday (July 23). Our valuation has always combined cash flow and NAV to derive a 12-month forward price target – concentrating on NAV in the case of oil sands producers with significant future development. Unlike last year however, CNQ is beginning to trade on Horizon cash flow, which pushes its time-line out further than 12-months and ECA is now reflecting its refining deal with ConocoPhillips – both of these factors are pushing P/CF estimates higher as oil prices hit US$75/bbl. While we are holding out for the end of August, and completion of Q2 reporting before we roll over our valuation to 2008 NAV, we thought it would be useful to give a preview of what our price targets could be using a 2008 NAV estimates and how it fits into our current ratings. Even with the move to 2008 NAVs, our upside is limited – at least until we move to a higher long-term oil price (currently at US$45/bbl). The oil sands, especially the pure play oil sands, are reflecting well in excess of US$60/bbl long-term – more so now considering the elevated Cdn dollar exchange rate. The advent of production from Horizon in mid-2008 has a big impact on our 2008 NAV estimate for CNQ (which essentially discounts 2009 cash flow forward). This pushes our target up substantially, with 13% upside from current pricing. While NXY has recovered from its low $30/sh range, its lagging valuation has also helped its upside, and we continue to like its exposure to Brent, its oil sands production at year-end (LongLake) and its relative position as a merger candidate. OPC remains our favourite on the pure play front for its near-term production and gasification technology.

Tuesday 10 July 2007 MONTHLY DIGEST: OIL & GAS – JULY/AUGUST 2007

While we are getting tired of sitting on the sidelines, our decision to sit on the sidelines since the May run-up in valuations has worked out. Valuations among pure play oil sands are up only 1.5% since mid-May (median since May 14). The lead has largely been taken by UTS (+20%) on speculation that Lease 311 contains a sizeable reserve base, while SU (+3.7%), WTO (-2.2%) and OPC (+0.0%) have largely oscillated. The senior group has also been under pressure (CNQ +2.4%, NXY +4.0% and ECA +2.0%) although we believe NXY is oversold given its cash flow contribution from Buzzard and its underleveraged position starting in 2008 (making it vulnerable in the M&A market). We remain in a defensive posture – recommending exposure to long-term, multi -faceted resource players (such as CNQ and NXY) with exposure to premium Brent pricing as a bonus. We admit that gas prices stumped us over the past two months, and the decline in prices we expected is just now taking hold - we are wary on gas in the near-term (see our monthly discussion topic below) and would steer clear of gas-weighted names. Top picks are CNQ and NXY for the seniors and BVX for oil in the juniors.

Thursday 28 June 2007 OSLO: NORWEGIAN FIRM BUYS TOEHOLD IN ALBERTA OILSANDS
Government-owned Statoil ASA of Norway says it has received approval from Canada's industry department for its acquisition of North American Oil Sands Corp. for C$2.2 billion. The transaction gives Statoil access to 1,100 square kilometres of oilsands lease in Alberta's Athabasca region northeast of Edmonton.

Thursday 28 June 2007 CANADIAN OIL & GAS: COMMODITY PRICE REIVEW: OIL UP, GAS LOOKING WEAK
For the second quarter in a row, tightening fundamentals combined with intermittent geopolitical issues, restricted refining capacity and bullish market sentiment have helped push world crude oil prices higher. Complicating matters are the appreciation of the Canadian dollar (lowering realized pricing) and premium to Brent crude (raising realized prices). Our 2007 WTI forecast climbs to US$65.00/bbl (was US$60.00/bbl) while our 2008 estimate climbs to US$62.50/bbl (was US$57.00). While we are sensing upward pressure to our long-term price of US$45.00/bbl, we are not ready to capitulate on that front just yet. Tempering the rise in oil price in Q2 was the 8% appreciation in the Canadian dollar to US$0.935. Since Canadian benchmark prices are priced off US dollar commodities, much of the appreciation in crude oil prices was and is offset by the exchange rate. We have revised our currency forecast to US$0.91/CAD (was US$0.87/CAD) in 2007 and assume strength will continue in 2008 at US$0.92/CAD (was US$0.84/CAD) as the strength in the dollar momentarily decouples from oil price direction in our forecast. As a result, Canadian Par prices of $70.85/bbl and $67.20/bbl in 2007 and 2008 remain largely unchanged. In terms of our gas forecasts, our NYMEX assumption changes very little, but the appreciation of the CAD results in lower AECO gas price assumption of Cdn$7.00/mcf and Cdn$6.95/mcf in 2007 and 2008 respectively (was Cdn$7.65/mcf and Cdn$7.85/mcf). CNQ remains a top pick for its pending Horizon start-up (August 2008) and its strong conventional operations. We believe the market will ascribe greater value to the Horizon project over the next 12-months as capital is sunk and start-up is imminent. As well, NXY is our top value pick given its significant exposure to Brent and Buzzard production coming on stream with relatively few hiccups. Nexen has indicated that over 80% of its production is exposed to Brent pricing. In the juniors, our top picks are shifting away from gas and into oil, leaving a rather limited selection. BVX should benefit from North Sea production growth and exposure to Brent and we are surprised it is not trading closer to the $7.00/sh level. TOG has been under intense pressure since it announced the takeover of RER, with its stock price falling 15% since the deal was announced. With 65% of its production exposed to oil, and trading at 4.0x 2008 cash flow, we believe the stock is oversold – despite concerns of continued production growth.

OIL & GAS: PICKING OIL OVER NATURAL GAS – Q3 COMMODITY UPDATE
We are remaining bullish on WTI in the near term for the following reasons: 1) Even tighter forward cover on lower IEA supply and higher IEA demand forecasts 2) Tight refining capacity/slow recovery in US utilization; 3)Brent premium suggests structural issues with WTI pricing; 4) Tight U.S. gasoline inventories but global pricing dynamics suggest a recovery. We are not so bullish on gas based on the following reasons: 1) Above average natural gas storage levels; 2) Canadian drilling down, but higher U.S. drilling an offset; 3) Temporary regional trap in U.S. Rockies production (neutral) and 4) LNG imports make up the gap plus pricing incentive continues for now.

OIL & GAS INCOME TRUSTS: CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM – NO THANKS TO THE RISING LOONIE.
We have completed our quarterly update of our commodity price deck, moving to a more bullish stance on near-term crude oil prices while reducing our natural gas price forecast. However, the rising loonie curbs our enthusiasm on both fronts – our higher WTI forecast is largely offset by the stronger Canadian dollar while lower expectations in NYMEX gas prices translates into an even steeper drop in AECO reference pricing after taking into account the effect of the loonie. We have rolled forward our 12-month forward cash flow outlook for valuation purposes (i.e., both CFPU and debt-adjusted AFFO) by one quarter, dropping Q2 2008 and adding Q2 2009. Our NAVPU valuations continue to be based on our 2007 after-tax blow-down estimates. Our targets increase by 3% on average – in line with the increase in our NAVPU estimates. For the most part, our targets increase across the board, with the exception of the trusts with significant exposure to natural gas on which our NAV estimates have declined – i.e., Fairborne (FEL.un), Focus (FET.un), Progress (PGX.un) and Trilogy (TET.un). Based on this outperformance in the face of what we consider deteriorating near-term conditions in natural gas markets, we are downgrading Advantage to Underperform from Sector Perform. Progress Energy Trust while still fundamentally one of our favorite models, our revised gas-price forecast forces us to lower our rating on the gas-weighted trust to Sector Perform from Outperform.

Friday 15 June 2007 OIL & GAS EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION: CAPP REVIEW – FOCUS ON THE SENIORS
With the CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers) conference starting next week we don’t expect any big surprises as companies push through with existing oil sands expansion plans and the market keeps a close eye on capital costs and service cost pressures. It also looks like commodity prices and the Canadian dollar in particular may take centre stage as its appreciation has taken some of the steam out of higher commodity prices. Then again, we had expected a pull back in the sector owing to the higher dollar, but have yet to see any sustained impact as investors seem to be focused on the next M&A target. It looks like the market is applying a hefty premium to oil sands names following the Statoil purchase of NAOSC on April 26 that pegged bitumen reserves at $1.00/bbl. We remain cautious of that metric and remind investors that it is simply a proxy for a full DCF analysis (Paramount sold its Surmont asset, four weeks later, for $0.75/bbl). Given the run-up in the sector against the exchange rate headwinds, we see better relative value in the senior producers – particularly CNQ which will see production grow 20% from 2007 to 2009 and NXY which has over 30% of its production exposed to Brent pricing (currently garnering a US$3.50/bbl premium to WTI). NXY is also a prime consolidation candidate in terms of its valuation and its exposure to oil sands (LongLake).

Thursday 14 June 2007 RBC Conventional Oil and Gas Weekly - Revising Commodity Price and $CAD Assumptions
RBC CM has revised its commodity price assumptions, and is now moving benchmark natural gas up, while crude oil remains relatively unchanged. The WTI assumption for 2008 is substantially unchanged at US$70/boe, while natural gas price increases from US$8.45/mcf to US$9.00/mcf. RBC CM is also factoring in a stronger Canadian Dollar assumption for 2008 to $1.07 (previously $1.15). As a result, RBC CM’s Canadian crude price falls by 6.6%, while AECO natural gas price rises by 3.6%. On average, target 12-month price targets decline by 3% due to the impact of the revised commodity price and foreign exchange assumptions. Gas weighted names saw the least amount of price target revisions as the commodity price change offset the currency change. RBC CM believes that trusts in its coverage universe will be able to sustain current distribution rates through to 2008.and continues to see conventional oil and gas trust sector as fairly valued at current levels.

8 June 2007 rci EDMONTON: ENVIRONMENTAL LOBBY HAS OILSANDS IN ITS SIGHTS
The Natural Resources Defence Council has announced it will launch a publicity campaign in the U.S. to make Americans realize how harmful the production and use of oil originating in Canada's oilsands is to the environment. The environmental advocate has drawn up a report that is aimed at promoting U.S. regulations that discourage use of fuels that general high volumes of greenhouse gases. The document summarizes objections to oilsands developments that are familiar to many Canadians but less so to Americans, such as the complaint that the developments devastate vast areas of boreal forest and drain and pollute watersheds. The report also notes that one barrel of oil made from bitumen generates three times more greenhouse gas than a barrel of conventionally-produced oil. Two-thirds of Canadian oil is exported southwards and major American multinational energy firms like Conoco Phillips and Chevron Texaco have major oilsands investments. The lobby recommends low-carbon fuel standards like those in effect in California. Alberta's energy department says, however, that provincial officials regularly meet with U.S. government officials and says they have recognized that Alberta's energy industry is a sustainable and well-managed source of energy. more

Wed1317 30 May 2007 The visit of Governor Schwarzenegger to Canada has generated considerable interest, is regarded as having been productive and has also elicited a number of comparisons to the leadership in Canada, with a definite tinge of envy on the part of Canadians for his enthusiastic leadership on environmental issues and his attitude that "it’s possible to take care of our economy at the same time we take care of our planet". This attitude was greeted with some scepticism by some Wednesday Nighters, but ardently championed by others.

The Governor's visit to BC also generated discussion of the Hydrogen Highway planned for the 2010 Olympics

With more evasion than leadership from our federal government, it is virtually certain that our commitments to the Kyoto Protocol will not be met because there are not the carbon-reducing technologies with which to do so. Canada has fallen behind the world, in part perhaps, because we speak of cost rather than investment in becoming more energy efficient. Certainly motor vehicles and farm equipment are more costly than horses, and mechanized equipment more efficient than hand labour, but had the Luddites prevailed, it is doubtful that society could have reached its current level of sophistication. It has been reported that Alberta oil and gas companies are currently supporting Kyoto as the world reacts to Canada’s apparent indifference. We could go back to consuming only local production of food and produce in order to reduce fuel consumption but that would result in inbreeding and protectionism, a retrograde step.

Tuesday 29 May 2007 OIL & GAS EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION: STRIPPING OUT VALUE; MAKING SENSE OF THE CURRENT MARKET.
The Canadian senior and oil sands sector has been on a strong run as of late – up 11% since the beginning of the year (up 17% in April/May alone) – with much of the upside to our targets quickly evaporating. Recent M&A activity combined with continued strong oil prices and elevated crack spreads have served to push valuations higher, beyond the 20-30% premium we were pricing into our NAV values. Our official NAV estimates are based on US$45/bbl oil and US$7.25/mcf NYMEX long-term (8% discount factor, after tax) with capital and operating costs adjusted to reflect our US$45/bbl world post 2009. Our targets were set 20-30% higher to reflect the relative scarcity of oil sands assets and their attractiveness in the M&A market. Given the heated nature of the market, we have been advocating ‘going away in May’ and would not deploy any new capital in the market at these levels. However, as the group continues to surge forward, we provide our relative picks and we thought it would be useful to provide our NAV analysis based on the current forward strip – truncating that strip down to US$60/bbl in 2013 for valuation purposes (the strip continues at US$68/bbl to 2010!). On a relative basis, we continue to like the senior producers as they trade at a discount to pure play oil sands players (0.74x 2008 NAV versus >1.0x for oil sands) and this discount tends to expand under higher prices. We like CNQ for its Horizon project and under-valued in situ land base. We are also increasingly attracted to NXY, which has pulled back sharply from its speculative highs in late January – the company has ramped up Buzzard successfully with the added benefit of higher Brent pricing year-to-date. For pure plays, we continue to support OPC – at 1.05x our 2008 NAV at US$60/bbl oil, it reflects the best relative value and best potential for a takeout – although its current stock price is very close to our $24 target. Canadian Oil Sands Trust appears to be trading in line with OPC and SU at 1.12x 2008 NAV strip, but we note its free cash flow generation and significant prospects for increasing payout in its effort to preserve tax pools for 2011 warrants a premium, or at the very least supports its valuation.

Tuesday May 29, 2007

Which brings us to an interesting piece in IPS News about the African countries that are blessed/cursed with natural resources wealth: "Oil and other mineral resources have led to conflict and corruption in countries like Sierra Leone (diamonds), Nigeria (oil), Equatorial Guinea (oil), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (diamonds, timber, rare fauna), Gabon (oil) and Angola (oil)"TRADE-AFRICA: Seems that only The Emirates are capable of understanding that oil is a finite resource; Bahrain and Dubai are doing a great job of long-term planning and diversification.

24/05/07 Software firm strikes digital gusher
Digital Oilfield CEO Rod Munro says his Calgary-based online invoicing firm sees a global market

Thursday May 17, 2007 Movie media on Oil in Darfour ep5

Friday 11 May 2007 Trade Deficit Hits a Six-Month High
The price of oil and a surge of imports in March widened the imbalance, though exports continued to rise.

Wednesday 09 May 2007
Tory green plan favours oilpatch, critics charge
The Conservative government fended off opposition accusations Tuesday of favouritism for the Alberta oilpatch as various industry groups started raising questions about new federal environmental regulations that make the oilsands the only Canadian sector allowed to increase pollution linked to smog over the next decade.

Wednesday 02 May 2007 Administration Proposes New Energy Drilling
We are sure that everyone will be delighted that the Bush administration has found a great way to compensate for the pesky problems in Venezuela and Iraq by proposing to "[lease] out millions of acres along the coasts of Alaska and Virginia to oil and gas drillers, a move that would end a longstanding ban on drilling in those environmentally sensitive areas "

Venezuela's nationalization of the last 4 oil refineries controlled by European or American interests

We are sure that everyone will be delighted that the Bush administration has found a great way to compensate for the pesky problems in Venezuela and Iraq by proposing to "[lease] out millions of acres along the coasts of Alaska and Virginia to oil and gas drillers, a move that would end a longstanding ban on drilling in those environmentally sensitive areas

Tuesday 24 April 2007 Iraqi Oil: More Plentiful Than Thought
While the war in Iraq stretches into its fifth year, a less bloody battle is raging over what lies beneath the carnage: oil.

Go Back

Tuesday 10 April 2007 Venezuela's threatened showdown over oil with a plan to wrest control of several key oil projects from American and European companies

Friday 23 March 2007 They saw it coming
BP was berated for having a weak safety culture in the final report from America's Chemical Safety Board into the blast at a Texas refinery in March 2005 that killed 15 workers and injured scores of others. The inquiry concluded that the oil company paid more attention to cutting costs at the facility than to the threat of an explosion. BP is being investigated by the Justice Department and faces the possibility of criminal charges.

Rosneft, Russia's state oil company, disclosed it had secured $22 billion in loans from a consortium of Western banks so that it could bid at auction for refineries once owned by Yukos, a private oil firm that was forced to sell its main assets by the Russian government and was thereby bankrupted. It is one of the largest loans given to a Russian company.

In a deal worth $4 billion—one of the biggest in Brazil—Petrobras, the state-run oil company, and two partners announced a plan to buy Ipiranga, a fuel distributor and refiner. The decision follows the government's recent stated intention to expand its strategic role in the energy sector.

Tuesday 13 March 2007 NBF CANADIAN OIL AND GAS. TRIPLE THREAT? PONDERING THE ENVIRONMENT, ROYALTIES AND TAXES IN THE OIL SANDS. INDUSTRY RATING: UNDERWEIGHT.
The government has been posturing for some time regarding green house gas emissions while distancing itself from Kyoto compliance. Initial reports have the government considering intensity-based targets, with reductions of 15% by 2015 and 26% by 2020. While oil sands operations are some of the most GHG intensive operations in Canada, the intensity targets would not necessarily limit growth and thus would be a positive outcome for the industry. Oil sands projects pay royalties of 1% of gross revenues before payout and revert to 25% of net revenue post payout. Payout is often based on bitumen pricing and does not include costs to upgrade. Alberta has recently struck a royalty review panel to conduct an objective review of the system. Recommendations from the panel are due to the Finance Minister by August 31, 2007. The federal government could eliminate the accelerated CCA provision granted to oil sands projects and it is speculated that such a provision may be introduced in the March 19 budget. Oil sands producers effectively write off 100% of investment in oil sands in the year incurred, as opposed to the more typical 25% provision. National Bank Financial (NBF)

Monday 05 March 2007 nyt Oil Innovations Pump New Life Into Old Wells
Technology has unlocked more oil from old fields, challenging forecasts that reserves are drying out.:27 >P>Thursday 15 February 2007
Ottawa heeding terror threat on oil industry
The federal government is taking seriously a Saudi terror group's call for jihadists to attack Canada's oil and natural gas installations to starve the United States of energy, Public Safety Minister Stockwell said Wednesday.

Canadian oil: Target of terror?
Al-Qaeda has called for terrorist strikes against Canada's oil and natural gas facilities to "choke the U.S. economy." An online message, posted by The Al-Qaeda Organization in the Arabian Peninsula, declares "we should strike petroleum interests in all areas which supply the United States ... like Canada," the No. 1 supplier of both fuels to the U.S.

Thursday 15 February 2007 Carbon trading would hit 40% of TSX: report
Companies representing 40 per cent of the Toronto Stock Exchange's total market capitalization would be directly affected by a legislated system of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caps and trading, and that impact will be negative for most of them, a new report from CIBC World Markets says.
....They said the oil and gas and utility sectors, together with industrial-processing operations such as metal smelting and refining, account for almost half the GHG emissions in Canada. “Those emissions would be the prime targets of any Canadian cap-and-trade system,” they said.
... Oil sands ranked second, even though they accounted for only 3.5 per cent of Canada's total GHG emissions in 2004. Mr. Rubin and Mr. Tal said the planned massive expansion of oil sands production will sharply increase the sector's emissions, even though the industry has been significantly improving its emission intensity and has scope to continue to do so.

Tuesday Feb 13, 2007 NP... We are not quite sure how to greet the Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. forecast of plunging oil prices, with glee as consumers, or with deep concern for the Canadian economy, or whether to even give credence to a 'perennial bear' - we don't know any of those, do we?

Feb. 1, 2007 An inconvenient truth by Rex Murphy

Video (Runs 4:07)

Friday 02 February 2007 globe Exxon's 'outlandish' earnings spark furor
With UN poised to blame global warming on fossil fuels, firm posts $40-billion profit

Friday 02 February 2007 globe Imperial Oil racks up record annual profit
Fourth-quarter profit slips, but Cold Lake production boosts overall 2006 profit to $3.04 billion
For the full year, Imperial saw net earnings of $3.11 per diluted share, compared with $2.53 in 2005. For the fourth quarter, Imperial earned 83 cents per share, down from $1 per share in the prior-year period.

Tuesday 30 January 2007 nyt NY Times Criticizes Oil Reserve Plan [Editor's Note: FIR predicts oil prices could fall to $40 a barrel in the next 12 months. Get a free copy of "Four Ways to Profit from the Oil Bust of 2007" and prepare yourself today.]

Saturday, January 27, 2007 nyt Saudi Officials Seek to Temper the Price of Oil
Saudi Arabia has signaled that it is committed to keeping oil at around $50 a barrel — down $27 a barrel from its summer peak.

Tar sands links

Thursday 25 January 2007
Harper: No plans to follow Bush on reducing oil consumption
Prime Minister Stephen Harper says heâ€™s considering imposing targets on industry to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Saturday 20 January 2007
Dion unaware of Liberal plan to expand oilsands
Federal Liberal Leader Stephane Dion says he knew nothing about a plan to massively expand production in the Alberta oilsands to meet the demand in the U.S., even though discussions on speeding up the regulatory review process were launched by former prime minister Paul Martin when Dion was the environment minister.

Thursday 18 January 2007
eco
" target="_" >Oilsands tax incentives questioned
Environment Minister John Baird hinted Wednesday his government is considering eliminating tax incentives introduced in the 1990s to boost production in Albertaâ€™s oilsands.

Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Oil Relief Still Leaves Policy Quandary - January 24, 2007
Consumers and companies alike are breathing a sigh of relief at lower oil prices – except those in the oil patch, of course. The question is, how will this relief affect the economic outlook? Past issues | his WN page

Monday 15 January 2007 OIL & GAS INCOME & ROYALTY TRUSTS: REVIEWING DISTRIBUTION SAFETY AGAIN! Last Thursday (Jan. 11, 2006), in perhaps a surprise move, Focus cut its distribution and also moved toward the lower end of its capex guidance citing weaker commodity markets and a desire to preserve the longer-term sustainability of its model – perhaps a sign of things to come in the sector over the next couple months if commodity weakness continues and particularly as many 2007 capex budgets are premised on much higher prices than current prices suggest. What has us particularly concerned is unabated U.S. gas drilling rates, which along with U.S. gas production has showed no signs of slowing. Combined with lower demand from the warmer winter, very little dent has been made in U.S. storage levels through the winter. Which trusts could be next? Under our current 2007 commodity outlook (US$55/bbl WTI and Cdn$7.45/mcf AECO), we forecast monthly distribution cuts from Canetic (0.23/unit to $0.20/unit in Q2 2007), Fairborne ($0.13/unit to $0.10/unit in Q2 2007), Pengrowth ($0.25/unit to $0.22/unit in Q3 2007) and Shiningbank ($0.23/unit to $0.20/unit in Q2 2007). However, further commodity weakness below our price deck would also put distribution levels for Advantage, Trilogy and Vault under pressure, largely owing to higher debt levels. Overall, we are maintaining our small cap bias. They have outperformed once normal growth terms of the tax on trusts were released in mid-December and we expect them to continue to catch up as they were the most oversold post the Oct. 31, 2006 tax announcement. For balanced or oil-weighted exposure, we suggest Freehold (FRU.un) and NAL (NAE.un). For natural gas exposure, our top picks are Focus (FET.un) and Progress (PGX.un). Meanwhile, higher risk/reward picks include Canetic (CNE.un), Shiningbank (SHN.un) and Trilogy (TET.un) – potential distribution cuts on these three names appear to be priced in.

Saturday 13 January 2007
Dion dismisses nuclear power in oilsands extraction
Federal Liberal Leader Stephane Dion threw cold water Friday on using nuclear energy to extract bitumen from the Alberta oilsands.

Wednesday Jan 10, 2007 Meanwhile. President Bush has struck another blow for free enterprise with the announcement that he has lifted a ban on oil and gas drilling in an Alaska's Bristol Bay, home to endangered whales http://2/hi/business/6246903.stm
While the mild winter in many parts of Europe and the northeast U.S. has dulled our sensitivity to oil prices
Russia's move to halt supplies to Belarus serves as a reminder that we should be paying more attention to events in Nigeria and we warmly (no pun intended) recommend "Blood oil" in this month's Vanity Fair
Oil & GAS: COMMODITY PRICES – WHERE IS THE LOVE?
With the rather taxing end to 2006 now behind us (excuse the pun), we are putting the pin in our 2006 commodity price deck. WTI crude prices averaged $59.95/bbl in Q4 2006, on par with our $60/bbl forecast. Light Canadian Par crude prices averaged $65.45/bbl, also in line with our $66.85/bbl estimate. At $46.10/bbl, heavy BowRiver crude finished 5% ahead of our forecast as the heavy oil differential held in firm at 32% of WTI versus our 35% estimate and well below the 39% average in Q4 during the previous two years. Gas prices were a much different story. After declining to US$4.20/mcf at the end of September, NYMEX prices quickly rebounded early in Q4, peaking at US$8.85/mcf in late November. In our view, the recovery was premature as early winter cold was only making a dent in the storage surplus. Prices have again turned the corner to the US$6.00/mcf mark on the heels of a return to warm weather. In any event, NYMEX gas averaged US$6.65/mcf during Q4, well above our US$5.50/mcf forecast.It has been a tough start to 2007 for commodity markets – where did all the love go? WTI has retreated to US$55/bbl, moving in line with our annual forecast. NYMEX gas has retreated to US$6.00/mcf, well below our US$7.50/mcf forecast. Our 2007 and longer-term forecast are unchanged at this point in time. It would be nice to declare victory and move on (at least on the crude front), but it is way too early for that and we are keeping an eye on several things that could in fact challenge our forecast – oil to the upside and natural gas to the downside.
OIL & GAS INCOME & ROYALTY TRUSTS: Q1 2007 COMMODITY UPDATE. OUTLINING OUR SMALL CAP BIAS.
We have completed our quarterly commodity price review, updating our 2006 estimates to actual, while maintaining our forecasts for 2007 and beyond. Other than updating for actual commodity prices for Q4 2006, we have taken the opportunity to do some minor maintenance work on our models. Our CFPU and DAFFO are largely unchanged.We have lowered the tax rate in our after-tax blow-down NAVPU calculations from 31.5% to the Alberta corporate tax rate of 28.5% in 2011. Our rationale is that Alberta-based trusts would simply convert back to high dividend paying corporations and incur a lower tax rate.Owing to recent relative unit price moves, we are upgrading ARC Energy Trust from Underperform to Sector Perform – our only rating change at this time.Unit price weakness to date during 2007 has again improved the upside potential in the sector and makes for some attractive returns. Two data points support our view: the current 1.2x P/NAV average trading multiple for the sector is on par with five-year lows and well below the historical 1.5x average. We would argue that better reserve per unit and rate of return performance justifies higher than historical multiples – certainly higher than historical lows.nit values are currently pricing in long-term US$51-56/bbl WTI (US$6.90-7.60/mcf NYMEX gas) on an after-tax blow-down basis. After giving effect to each trust's growth profile, however, we calculate a more reasonable average implied WTI price of US$48-US$51/bbl assuming an 8-10% after-tax return.Given the short-term uncertainty surrounding natural gas markets, we would generally favour exposure to the oil/balanced-weighted trusts in the near-term, including Freehold (FRU.un), NAL (NAE.un) and Canetic (CNE.un). For natural gas exposure, we would recommend that investors stick to lower risk holdings in Focus (FET.un) and Progress (PGX.un) which should prove to be defensive holdings in the event of weaker gas prices. For higher risk/reward on the gas front, we would recommend Shiningbank (SHN.un) and Trilogy (TET.un).

Monday 08 January 2007 Blood Oil
Could a bunch of Nigerian militants in speedboats bring about a U.S. recession? Blowing up facilities and taking hostages, they are wreaking havoc on the oil production of America's fifth-largest supplier. Deep in the Niger-delta swamps, the author meets the nightmarish result of four decades of corruption.
2006

Wednesday 27 December 2006 A new report warns that Iran's booming oil industry may be headed for trouble. An analysis published in the National Academy of Sciences in the United States says Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports. The report says if the trend continues, Iran's income from oil could virtually disappear by 2015. Roger Stern authored the report. He concluded that "there could be merit" to Iran's claim that it needs nuclear power for civilian purposes. Dr. Stern is an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland. He says Iran's money woes could make the country unstable and vulnerable. Iran earns about $50 billion US a year in oil exports. Dr. Stern says that could decline by 10 to 12-per cent a year.
Thursday 21 December 2006 OTTAWA: NEW FEDERAL FUEL STRATEGY ANNOUNCED
The Canadian government has announced new initiatives to promote biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel. Mrs. Ambrose unveiled the plan on Wednesday in western Canada. The $345-million plan is part of the Conservative government's clean air strategy. The initiative is aimed at persuading farmers across Canada to become involved in growing the crops needed for the manufacture of ethanol.
CALGARY: PIPELINE FIRM EXPANDS NETWORK
TransCanada Corp. has announced it will expand its natural gas pipeline and storage operations in North America through acquisitions. TransCanada says three transactions will be carried out worth US$3.4 billion, including the acquisition of two branches of the American firm ANR, which operates one of the largest interstate natural pipelines in the U.S. The Canadian firm says that the acquisition of ANR brings its gas pipeline network to more than 59,000 kilometres.
Monday 13 November 2006 CALGARY: MIDDLE EAST COMPANY BUYS CANADIAN OIL AND GAS FIRM
Dana Gas PJSC of the United Arab Emirates will buy the Canadian oil and gas company, Centurion Energy International of Calgary, for CDN$1.15 billion in a friendly takeover. Takeover talks began on October 31. The deal is slated to be concluded in January. The offer represents a premium of almost 56 per cent over the company's recent average share price. Dana Gas has major operations in Egypt. Established in 2005, it is the first regional private-sector natural gas company to operate in the Saudi Arabian region. Several other international energy companies based in Calgary have a focus in the Middle East.
Saturday 11 November 2006 OTTAWA: NWT PIPELINE PROJECT HITS NEW SNAG
Federal Court of Canada has ruled that a panel that is doing an environmental review of a proposed natural gas pipeline in the Mackenzie Valley in the Northwest Territories cannot study the effect on land claimed by the Dene Tha' native group. The pipeline would pass through the land in question. The court accepted the band's argument that although it doesn't inhabit the land, it has formed part of its territory in the past. The ruling says the federal government has failed in its duty to consult the band and ordered the two sides to negotiate a solution. The development is the latest delay in the plan to run a 1,200-kilometre through the Mackenzie Valley to convey huge amounts of unexploited natural gas to markets in southern Canada and the U.S. The project has been delayed by protracted negotiations with and opposition from some native groups, cost overruns and regulatory requirements.
The forecast trading range for crude oil is based on demand easing, inventories rising production in the Gulf States is expected to return to normal. Some Wednesday Nighters expressed concern about the effect of the recent hard-line outbursts from Iranian President President Mahmud Ahmadi- Nejad and wondered about their impact on oil supply from that country, the fourth most important oil producer in the world
Monday 06 November 2006 President Hugo Chavez has threatened to halt oil exports to the United States if Washington tries to influence the outcome of next month's national election in Venezuela. In a speech Saturday, Mr. Chavez said that President George W. Bush "had better tie down his crazies here in Venezuela" if he wants to keep the oil flowing. Venezuela supplied 12 per cent of oil imports last year to the US, which remains the top buyer of Venezuelan oil. Mr. Chavez, a close ally of Cuban leader Fidel Castro, also said opponents of his leftist government are not welcome in the military or the state-run oil company.
Friday 03 November 2006 Conventional Oil & Gas Trusts - Adjusting Our Estimates and Targets
Under the Federal proposal, the trust income tax rate is 31.5%; federal tax (18.5%) and an allocated provincial rate (13%). The Alberta Provincial corporate income tax rate is expected to decline, reducing the combined corporate income tax rate from 28.5% to 26.5%. There is clearly a potential for Provincial corporate tax arbitrage in 2011 through trust “unconversions”. RBC CM assumed a tax rate of 20% of cash flow, which assumes that the “trusts” (which will likely consider becoming corporations) have some tax shelter (though actual details are very limited). We have also shown an effective tax rate of 15% for sensitivity purposes. The future tax implications for the oil and gas trusts translates into an average reduction to target prices of 13%. In general, longer life trusts experience a larger impact from future taxation versus the shorter life trusts. Shorter life trusts will realize a greater portion of cash flow in the pre-tax era under a blowdown scenario. Investors must remember that with each passing year the implications of the tax levy will increase and the cash yield will need to increase to compensate for declining unit value estimates until they equate to the full after-tax values.
Based on the implied total returns, Freehold (FRU.UN), Crescent Point (CPG.UN), NAL Oil & Gas (NAE.UN) and Peyto (PEY.UN) look attractive relative to the group. Conversely, PrimeWest (PWI.UN), Progress (PGX.UN), Advantage (AVN.UN) and Shiningbank (SHN.UN) look expensive relative to the group.
Thursday 02 November 2006 Black And Blue – Oil & Gas Trusts Beaten By Bruiser Of A Government Announcement
The individual unit performance was surprising as we observed a number of trusts with high foreign ownership levels and high payout ratios fared better than trusts with lower payout ratios and lower foreign ownership. For example Focus experienced the greatest one-day decline (17.5%) and Advantage reported the lowest (9%). Thus it appears that US investors weighed into the fray to snap up the cross-listed trusts.
Wednesday 01 November 2006
Stability forecast for oil and gas prices
Both producers and consumers should be happy as energy markets are expected to see balanced conditions and average prices not far from current levels over the next several months, National Energy Board officials said Tuesday.

Monday, October 23, 2006, Norwegians roiling in oil By DOUG SAUNDERS
OSLO -- By any measure, Kristoper Holfeldt should be one of the happiest people in the world. As a delivery-truck driver in Oslo, he earns almost $70,000 a year in one of the world's most equal society. His daughter takes advantage of free university tuition, his free public medical and pension benefits are stellar, and he lives in the healthiest and best-paid society on Earth.

Fri 20/10/2006 CALGARY: NWT CALLED PROFITABLE WITHOUT GOVT. STAKE
A report prepared at the behest of a social advocacy group in Canada's Northwest Territories has concluded that the proposed Mackenzie Valley natural gas pipeline would be profitable even without government involvement. The report was commissioned by Alternatives North, a coalition of labour unions and environmental and church groups in the NWT. The document's starting point is the cost estimate of $7.5 billion put forward by the consortium led by Imperial Oil that wants to carry out the project. The consortium has said that the profitability of the pipeline would be "marginal." The report disputes that prediction, substituting an average yearly forecast of 21.5 per cent profit even without a governmental stake. However, the report also concludes that the taxpayer would be better served by a régime in which government would have a stake in the project so as to profit from high energy prices, a situation which would decrease the profit yield for the consortium by only 2.5 per cent.
Friday 13 October 2006
Study finds oilsands could mitigate climate change
It has been blamed as one of the big villains causing global warming, but a new study by PricewaterhouseCoopers has concluded that Alberta's oilsands could play a key role in saving the planet from the devastating effects of climate change.
Friday 06 October 2006 CALGARY: U.S.-CANADA OILSANDS PARTNERSHIP ANNOUNCED
Canadian and U.S. energy giants Encana Corp. and ConocoPhillips respectively have concluded an agreement to exploit together Encana's oilsands assets in northeastern Alberta. The two firms will co-operate to exploit Encana's two oilsands projects near Fort McMurray. The projects contain 6.5 barrels of recoverable bitumen, the raw material from which synthetic crude is made. Current production from the projects in the Athabasca region is 50,000 barrels a day, a figure which the partners want to multiply by eight. A product comprising half-and-half bitumen and synthetic crude will be refined at two ConocoPhillips refineries near Chicago and another in Texas. Each company will own one-half of the joint venture. Financial terms haven't been disclosed.
SAINT JOHN: IRVING WEIGHING NEW REFINERY
Irving Oil denied on Thursday a report by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation on Wednesday that it has decide to build a second oil refinery in Saint John, NB, but acknowledges that the project is being considered. Irving says the possibility of spending $7 billion to build a second refinery in the city, which would be the first new oil refinery to be built in North America in 25 years. The company says the products would be sold in the northeastern U.S. The possible project has raised environmental concerns. The Conservation Council of New Brunswick says it would be foolish to allow a second Irving refinery in Saint John when the existing one is so polluting. The Council also says the only purpose of a second installation would be to keep Americans driving SUVs to be supplied with gasoline.
Overall, a higher 2007e DAFFO payout ratio reflects a greater cash flow deficiency and warrants a higher adjusted yield. Again, our Outperform-rated units, Canetic (CNE.un), Crescent Point (CPG.un), Focus (FET.un) and Shiningbank (SHN.un) trade at higher adjusted yields than their sustainability profiles would suggest – i.e., lower relative adjusted yields are warranted suggesting greater capital upside, which further supports our Outperform ratings.
Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Oil Peaks, Valleys, Plateaus and Plains - September 20, 2006
The world oil market has been a constant source of frustration for economic forecasters of late. Have the laws of economics been rescinded? The short answer is no. Past issues | his WN page

Sunday 10 September 2006 np The end of oil has been postponed all right Jack
The end of oil has been postponed by the discovery of Jack in the Gulf of Mexico
CNN 'In the Money' Drops Conspiracy Theory When Interviewing Oil Analyst
Yet a week before, the business news program entertained Jack Cafferty's theory on Republican control of gas prices.
Wednesday 30 August 2006 CALGARY: LABOUR SITUATION DESPERATE IN OILPATCH
A consultants report claims that the labour shortage in the "oilpatch" region of western Canada is going from bad to worse. The Deloitte firm consulted 55 executives in the country's energy, mining and utilities sectors to reach that conclusion. The document says the inability to obtain enough skilled workers will limit their ability to meet customer demand and to innovate. The report also notes that companies are having increasing difficulty in attracting specific types of labour in finding new talent, a situation that can only grow worse as the "baby boomers" start to retire. The respondents told the consultants that the problem is equally severe for blue and white collar workers.
Tue 08/08/2006 Biggest Oil Field in U.S. Is Forced to Stop PumpingThe emergency at BP's Prudhoe Bay operation in Alaska drove world crude oil prices to just under $77 a barrel.
maisonneuve.org/ CRYING OVER SPILT OIL
The National leads, the Globe fronts a teaser, and CTV News, the Citizen, the Star and the Post (not available online) go inside with reports on the closure of the largest oilfield in the United States due to corroded pipes. According to the Globe, the Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska produces about 400,000 barrels of oil a day, amounting to 8 percent of the United States’ output. BP, the company that runs the field, discovered the problem when the equivalent of roughly five barrels of oil leaked from the pipeline that connects the facility to the port of Valdez in southern Alaska. CTV’s David Aiken reports that BP sent a machine through the pipes after the spill, uncovering “severe corrosion” in large sections of the pipeline. Though Aiken adds that it was the first time the robot had been used in years, he does not examine how or why that was the case. Most of the reports focus on the economic effects of the closure—on North American gas prices and the stock market. Aiken is the only one to comment that this mini-crisis exposes our severe dependence on oil, which seems unlikely to abate despite calls from environmentalists to cut back on consumption.

Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Oil Money Flowing Both Downstream and Upstream - August 2, 2006
Economists apparently can debate endlessly whether high oil prices are due to strong demand, short supply or geopolitical risks. But everyone can agree that oil producers are making a killing. Past issues | his WN page

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Thu 27/07/2006 ec Oil and trouble
BP said it would increase spending on safety at its North American operations, which has attracted the ire of activists in the United States. The announcement came shortly before BP unveiled a quarterly profit of $7.27 billion. Separately, Lord Browne, the company's chief executive, confirmed he would retire at the end of 2008.
Oji Paper said it wanted to buy Hokuetsu Paper, which is committed instead to selling a 24% stake to Mitsubishi Corporation. It is thought to be the first time a Japanese blue-chip company has made a hostile bid for a domestic competitor and may be a sign that Japan's corporate culture is opening up to Western-style business practices.
Tue, 27 Jun 2006 16:01:07 Most Americans don't know Canada is their biggest oil supplier
A new poll suggests the vast majority of Americans are unaware that Canada is the largest foreign supplier of crude oil to the U.S.
The Canadian American Business Council (CABC) - which represents some of the biggest private sector companies in both countries - said its survey of 1,000 Americans found that only four per cent of respondents thought Canada was the country that provided them with more oil than anyone else.

"We're literally stuck up a cul-de-sac in a cement SUV without a fill-up" - James Howard Kunstler Are today's suburbs destined to become the slums of tomorrow? A 78-minute documentary about the end of the age of cheap oil. You can find out more at www.endofsuburbia.com

Tuesday Jun 6, 2006
Alberta oilsands project iffy
The fate of an almost $10-billion US proposed bitumen upgrader, refinery, petrochemical and electrical generation facility is uncertain, Energy Minister Greg Melchin said Monday as Alberta released details of the project for the first time.
Analysts predict oil price spike
Western countries should be prepared to pay upwards of $100 US for a barrel of oil if Iran makes good on a threat to disrupt supplies, analysts said Monday.
Monday Jun 5, 2006 Audio Slide Show: Town Seeks Its Own Energy
A farming town in Indiana wants to secede from America’s energy grid and power itself entirely with renewable sources, like its corn and pigs.
• Related Article

Saturday May 20, 2006 Vote in House Seeks to Erase Oil Windfall The measure would order the government to renegotiate leases with companies that drill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Friday May 19, 2006 rci FORT MCMURRAY: NEW OILSANDS FACILITY ORDERED SHUT DOWN
The government of Alberta has ordered Syncrude's new oilsands installations 40 kilometres north of Fort McMurray to be shut down because they were emitting foul odours. The order by the environment department about the Mildred Lake plant follows numerous complaints by residents of Fort McMurray and nearby Fort McKay. Mildred Lake went into operation only this month after years of construction and cost overruns. The facility is intended to boost Syncrude's oilsands production by one-half to 350,000 barrels a day. Syncrude is Canada's largest oilsands producer.
Tuesday May 2, 2006 Ethanol's PromiseGiven enough financial support and political will, ethanol could be a huge first step toward ending America's oil addiction.
April 22, 2006 Oil Prices, the Kondratiev Cycle and Peak Oil
High oil prices are much on investor's minds today and a cycle-based examination of oil is well due. I discussed oil in my 2003 book Retiring Rich and presented an investment strategy for oil stocks that has since been not very useful. The strategy called for buying oil driller stocks or a suitable index when oil prices and rig counts reached certain (low) levels. Since late 2002 when I developed the strategy, prices and rig counts have remained well above these buy levels and the strategy has been irrelevant as a result. Thanks to Ron Meisels who else?
Wednesday Apr 19, 2006 nyt China's Rising Need for Oil Is High on U.S. Agenda China's oil demand, which the U.S. has blamed in part for rising prices, will be a subject of President Hu Jintao's visit.
Monday Apr 17, 2006 rci Chad threatened on Saturday to stop oil exports unless the World Bank releases millions of dollars of oil royalties belonging to Chad. Three months ago, the World Bank froze 125 million American dollars to put pressure on Chad's government to use its oil revenues to help the country's poor. Chad says that without the frozen funds, it will be forced to shut down its oil pipelines. It's given the World Bank until Tuesday to release the money. Meanwhile, in Chad, rebels are rejecting allegations that they're receiving help from neighbouring Sudan. On Friday, Chad broke off diplomatic relations with Sudan, accusing its government of arming rebels who stormed through Chad's capital, N'Djamena, the day before. President Idriss Deby Itno also threatened to expel about 200-thousand Sudanese refugees in his country. But the rebels are launching accusations of their own. They say that Chad's government has hired mercenaries from Europe. Tension in Chad remains high as President Deby struggles to continue governing after 16 years in power. Thousands of supporters of President Deby rallied in the capital on Saturday, but many residents feared that rebels might return.
Thursday Mar 9, 2006 maisonneuve.org
SLOW DOWN THERE, COWBOY
The Citizen goes inside with a report by three think-tanks that suggests Alberta's oil sales to the US are endangering Canada's supplies and could be putting the country's energy security at risk over the next ten years. Titled "Fuelling Fortress America," the report published by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, the Parkland Institute and the Polaris Institute calls on the government to protect Alberta's oil sands rather than develop them for export to the US, its largest buyer. Citing the risks to Canada's oil supply, the possibility of labour shortages due to the US's voracious appetite for energy, and the inevitable increase in greenhouse-gas emissions from continued consumption, the report urges policy-makers to pace the development of the oil sands. Though it mentions the think-tanks' report only fleetingly, La Presse publishes the Alberta government's apparent rebuttal: Greg Melchin, the province's minister of energy, argues the reserves are large enough to last "centuries."

Sunday Feb 19, 2006 Wed1250 The standard of living in emerging markets is rising, which will lead to reevaluation of currencies, as those countries that previously manufactured for export only are now importing for home consumption, smoothing the curve in world market variations. They have young populations whose appetite for consumer goods is evolving. But with the development of the emerging markets comes demand for energy and concurrent change in energy markets from export to local consumption. Japan’s economy is improving while the U.S. foresees a slowdown down the road, but the economy is still strong. Possibly the greatest weakness, hitherto not widely considered, is the fact that, with the world market expanding, there have not been any new major discoveries of resources. Unconventional drilling (underwater or high altitude)is being used for extraction in order to compensate for that problem. Have we reached a Hubbert's Peak for minerals? China, with its burgeoning economy, is ending its gasoline subsidy in order to reduce consumption of that commodity, and is using unconventional drilling techniques as well as starting to buy reserves. This trend can be seen in China's acquisition of Canadian companies involved in natural resources. Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Chile have commodities, as do Canada and Australia. In the opinion of one expert, these are the places where there is serious money to be made over the coming years. U-tube
Saturday Feb 4, 2006 nyt OPEC Chief Shrugs Off Oil Politics
By JAD MOUAWAD
Gone are the militant years, when OPEC ministers barged into meetings and threatened to unsheathe their oil weapon.
Wednesday Feb 1, 2006 nyt President Warns About Dangers for Nation in Isolationism
By ELISABETH BUMILLER
and ADAM NAGOURNEY
President Bush said that "America is addicted to oil" and set a goal of replacing 75 percent of the nation's Mideast oil imports.
Wednesday Feb 1, 2006 ts Bush targets U.S. oil `addiction'
George W. Bush is vowing to break the American addiction to oil, offering up a series of proposals to revolutionize the way the country heats its homes and powers its cars. Tim Harper reports.
Tuesday Jan 24, 2006 ts Experts warn of $100 U.S. a barrel oil
Experts say a surge in oil prices last week to almost $70 (U.S.) a barrel on a perfect storm of global energy-related fears only hints at what may lie ahead. Associated Press reports. 268 pages talking about OIL
Saturday Jan 21, 2006 nyt Oil Markets Are Jittery Over Possibility of Sanctions Against Iran
By JAD MOUAWAD
The fate of the country's oil sector, which exports more than the world's current spare capacity, is on the minds of many oil analysts.see Wn on Iran
Wednesday Jan 4, 2006 ec Russia’s gas row with Ukraine
Russia and Ukraine seem to have ended their row over the price of gas, which had briefly threatened energy supplies across Europe. But the deal they have reached is a murky one—and doubts remain over Russia's reliability as an energy supplier
Wednesday Jan 4, 2006 nyt Black Gold or Black Death?
By JEFF GOODELL
If coal is going to be taken seriously as a fuel source in the 21st century, it's up to federal and state regulators to make sure that it's safe
2005

Dear Diana and David,
Thank you so much for keeping me informed, your messages feel like a very long thread connecting me to Canada and friends I left behind. I wish you very happy and hopefully non-stresfull holidays if that is possible in the shopping frenzy that I remember in December. I wish you health and peace and long emails from your kids. I hope your friends give you as much love and attention as you give them. You certainly deserve it.
Big hug and lot of love Marina in Cambodia
Please see Alberta more more
2004

W-N Oil Archives 2005 | 2004 back to November 1999 Available on request -

2009 moreGoogle below

2008

Oil hovers near $115 record high

Shifting sands: Canada, the world and the oil sands

Oil keeps getting more expensive—but not because it is running out

2007

Articles

How High Can Oil Go?

Oil & GAS: COMMODITY PRICES – WHERE IS THE LOVE?

OIL & GAS INCOME & ROYALTY TRUSTS: Q1 2007 COMMODITY UPDATE. OUTLINING OUR SMALL CAP BIAS.

2006

2005

2004