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Wednesday 31 October 2007
We'll show you how to sift through the markets and screen out the winners and the losers. Today: Canadian stocks in the fast lane
If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there. – Lewis Carroll
many notes below from Andrew L. de Courcy-Ireland, CIM, FCSI
Portfolio Manager CANACCORD CAPITALTel: (514) 844-5520
click chart for one second chart
2008
Monday 06 October 2008 (ABX : TSX : $34.85)Lower copper forecast impacts estimates Tuesday 30 September 2008 (ABX : TSX : $37.89 | NYSE : US$36.62)
Highlights from management presentations
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is US$45.00
Thursday 28 August 2008 (ABX : TSX : $35.97 | NYSE : US$34.36)
Industry-wide costs pressures remain a challenge
RBC Capital Markets maintains a "sector perform", lowers target to US$45.00 from US$48.00
Ron Meisels Apr 8 top pick
BARRICK GOLD (ABX-T)
Monday 11 August 2008 (ABX : TSX : $43.46 | NYSE : US$42.29)
Barrick reports Q2 results
Blackmont Capital maintains "buy", 12-month target price lowered to $53.00
Credit Suisse First Boston maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is US$56.00
Haywood Securities maintains "sector outperform", 12-month target price lowered to $52.50
Wednesday 06 August 2008 Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX : TSX : $39.64 | NYSE : US$38.03)
Q2/08 a slight miss; Expect much higher costs in H2
Dundee Securities maintains "buy", 12-month target price lowered to $55.00
TD Newcrest maintains "buy", 12-month target price decreased to US$56.00
Monday 04 August 2008 (ABX : TSX : $43.16 | NYSE : US$42.02)Barrick reports Q2 results
Blackmont Capital maintains "buy", 12-month target price lowered to $53.00
Credit Suisse First Boston maintains "outperform", 12-month target price is US$56.00
Haywood Securities maintains "sector outperform", 12-month target price lowered to $52.50
Friday Aug 1, 2008 Barrick profit climbs 22%
Barrick Gold's quarterly profit climbed 22 per cent as higher gold prices outpaced the rising costs of production, the world...
Barrick profit jumps 22 per cent
Revenue climbs 20 per cent to $1.97-billion; but production costs “relentlessly moving upwards”
Wednesday 16 July 2008 Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX : TSX : $51.46)
Proposed offer for Cadence Energy a clever manoeuver to offset rising costs
Blackmont Capital maintains "buy", 12-month target price is $54.00
Tuesday 15 July 2008 CALGARY: GOLD MINER WANTS PLACE IN OIL BUSINESS
Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest gold company, has made a hostile bid for a junior oil firm. Barrick has made an offer worth $350 million for Cadence Energy Ltd., and oil and natural gas firm. Barrick says a takeover of Alberta-based Cadence would supply one-quarter of its oil requirements and a "significant portion" of its natural gas consumption. Barrick's offer is superior to a bid made last May by Daylight Resources Trust worth $300 million on which Cadence shareholders will vote on July 22. Cadence produces approximately 3,600 barrels of oil per day, over 70 percent of it light crude.
Tuesday 03 June 2008 Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX : TSX : $40.36)
Model revisions following lower operating forecasts for Goldstrike and mines in South America and Australia
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is cut to $48.00
Thursday 08 May 2008 (ABX : TSX : $39.19), Net Change: -0.21, % Change: -0.53%, Volume: 3,698,099
"Opie, you haven't finished your milk. We can't put it back in the cow, you know." - Aunt Bee (The Andy Griffith Show).
The world's largest gold producer is blaming growing environmental groups and protectionist governments for contributing
significantly to the world's supply problems for precious metals. "The supply side is tragic," warned CEP Peter Munk, blaming
"political pressure to keep on asking for more without realizing that the cost of environmental approval and enormously
increased mining and equipment costs have to be amortized." Pressures from NGOs are growing, too: "The original 600 or 700
highly qualified NGOs have grown so rapidly that today we have to deal with thousands of them...together they have more
money and legal abilities, so the whole environmental-approval process becomes increasingly time-consuming and costly."
Let's suppose you are an ardent environmentalist that would prefer we turn the clocks back a few decades. Disrupting resource
exploration helps push up the costs for commodities which in turn reduces demand. It's an effective means to discipline
consumer habits. That's a big reason why NGOs are growing and it is difficult to see how this is will reverse in the foreseeable
future. Without judging the folks behind the NGO movements, forfeit their right to complain about the cost of filling up
their camper-van or paying for granola. It would be blatantly hypocritical of them if they did.
(ABX : TSX : $39.18 | NYSE : US$39.06)Costs beat estimates, light production
Canaccord Capital maintains "hold", 12-month target price is cut to US$50.00
Credit Suisse First Boston maintains "neutral", 12-month target price is US$58.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", no target price reported
Wednesday 07 May 2008 (ABX : TSX : $39.40), Net Change: -0.01, % Change: -0.03%, Volume: 3,512,405
The flagship reports. Barrick reported headline fully-diluted Q1/08 EPS of $0.58 versus Canaccord Adams' estimates of $0.65
and consensus of $0.61. Included were $41 million ($29 million after-tax) in writedowns primarily related to ABCP. Excluding
the writedowns, adjusted EPS would have been inline with consensus. Total cash costs came in at $393/oz vs. Canaccord
Adams estimates' of $385/oz. Gold production was light at 1.743 Moz @ $393/oz vs. Canaccord Adams' estimates of 1.976
Moz @ $385/oz. Overall production in Q1/08 was negatively impacted by lower grades and throughput due to a combination of
mine sequencing and operations disruptions. Regionally, North American operations were the primary source of production underperformance. Barrick re-iterated its 2008 operational guidance of production of 7.6-8.1 Moz and 380-400 Mlbs of copper.
Total cash costs are expected to come in at higher end of previous guidance at $390-415/oz.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008 TOP PICK BARRICK GOLD CORP (NYSE:ABX TSE:ABX): Barrick done very well, been in major uptrend, trading range $47-53, it is probably minimum $60 stock. Been a laggard for such a long time so now it is finally moving. It is a senior player, institutions because of their size are happy to own this. Gold stocks and gold itself very often move slightly separately. We paid $36 for Barrick.Ron Meisels, www.na-marketletter.com
Saturday 19 April 2008 (ABX : TSX : $45.75) Analysts raise copper forecast
Blackmont Capital maintains "hold", 12-month target price is raised to $54.00
Friday 04 April 2008 Yahoo! Message Boards - Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) - Ron Meisels on ABX
Ron Meisels on ABX 25-Mar-08 07:56 pm. TOP PICK BARRICK GOLD CORP (NYSE:ABX TSE:ABX): ... Ron Meisels on ABX. kcspelunca, Not rated, 25-Mar-08 07:56 pm ...
TOP PICK BARRICK GOLD CORP (NYSE:ABX TSE:ABX): Barrick done very well, been in major uptrend, trading range $47-53, it is probably minimum $60 stock. Been a laggard for such a long time so now it is finally moving. It is a senior player, institutions because of their size are happy to own this. Gold stocks and gold itself very often move slightly separately. We paid $36 for Barrick.
Friday 28 March 2008 Barrick Gold (ABX) said CEO Greg Wilkins has taken a leave of absence because of a ``serious medical condition'' that requires treatment. Chairman Peter Munk, 80, will serve as interim CEO, Toronto- based Barrick said today in a statement.
Wednesday 26 March 2008
Barrick Gold (ABX : TSX : $44.15), Net Change: 1.38, % Change: 3.23%, Volume: 4,676,444
Goldcorp (G : TSX : $40.70), Net Change: 2.68, % Change: 7.05%, Volume: 5,625,298
Kinross Gold (K : TSX : $23.45), Net Change: 1.97, % Change: 9.17%, Volume: 5,812,048
Sorry, Matthew, Aurelian wasn't the only gold stock bid higher yesterday. The market got back to buying gold stocks Tuesday.
Since the Fed stepped in and became the lender of last resort on March 16, gold has retreated from its record high of
$1,030.80/oz (March 17) and gold equities have been beaten down. Check out how the senior gold producers have faired since
gold peaked (based on Monday's close, prior to yesterday's rally), Barrick - down 18.5%, Goldcorp - down 13.8% and Kinross -
off 17.1%. Some called it a liquidity driven sell-off. The near-term direction of gold may be more directly correlated to credit
risk than the U.S. dollar. We note that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) at 72 is only modestly up from its bottom of 71. When the
DXY index was last at 75-77 level, this was consistent with gold in the $875-$925 range. Perhaps the world didn't end and the
Fed has saved the market for now, but know this: 1) Gold in real terms (adjusted for inflation) peaked historically at >$2,200/oz;
2) U.S. dollar bearish sentiment (it’s hard for us to imagine the start of a new bull market on the U.S. dollar given relative
interest rates and negative U.S. real yields); 3) Gold's safe-haven role (it’s hard for us to envision that the credit crisis is fixed);
4) Investment demand continues so be strong; and 5) Commodity inflation.
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX : TSX : $44.16) Upgrade on price weakness
Dundee Capital Markets upgrades to "buy", 12-month target price is $55.00
Ron Meisels, www.na-marketletter.com
Tuesday, March 25, 2008 TOP PICK BARRICK GOLD CORP (NYSE:ABX TSE:ABX): Barrick done very well, been in major uptrend, trading range $47-53, it is probably minimum $60 stock. Been a laggard for such a long time so now it is finally moving. It is a senior player, institutions because of their size are happy to own this. Gold stocks and gold itself very often move slightly separately. We paid $36 for Barrick.Ron Meisels, www.na-marketletter.com
.
Friday 07 March 2008 Barrick Gold (ABX) is seeking a Russian partner for a venture to develop mines in the country and bid for its largest untapped gold deposit. Barrick would accept a minority stake in a Russian joint venture, CEO Gregory Wilkins said yesterday. The partnership would be used to try to secure rights to the Sukhoi Log gold and silver deposit when it comes up for government auction.
Saturday 23 February 2008 TORONTO: BARRICK COMPLETES NEVADA ACQUISITION
Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest gold company, will pay US$1.7 billion to a subsidiary of Rio Tinto to win complete ownership of the Cortez project in the U.S. state of Nevada. Barrick already owned 60 per cent. Barrick CEO Greg Wilkins says complete ownership of Cortez will contribute almost one million ounces of gold to his company's yearly production within a few years. The project has a proven or probable gold reserves of 11.5 million ounces.
Thursday 21 February 2008 (ABX : TSX : $50.26 | NYSE : US$49.63) Q4 preview
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is $47.00
Monday 11 February 2008 (ABX : TSX : $49.84 | NYSE : US$50.10)
Increased resource at Donlin Creek
Blackmont Capital maintains a "hold", 12-month target price is $54.00
TD Newcrest initiates coverage with a "buy", 12-month target price is US$56.00
Wednesday 23 January 2008 Barrick (ABX : TSX : $50.21 | NYSE : US$49.01)
More upside for gold to come in 2008
Credit Suisse upgrades to "neutral", target price raised to US$59.00
2007
Wednesday 07 November 2007 (ABX : TSX : $43.30 | NYSE : US$46.98)
Acquires mine and exploration property in Papua New Guinea
BMO Nesbitt Burns maintains a "outperform", target price raised to US$52.50
Monday 05 November 2007 (ABX : TSX : $42.61) Good Q3
Haywood Securities maintains "sector outperform", 12-month target price is $47.50
Friday 02 November 2007 (ABX : TSX : $40.39 | NYSE : US$42.50)
Released third-quarter earnings slightly below consensus estimate
Blackmont Capital maintains a "hold", 12-month target price is cut to $44.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains a "sector perform", target price raised to US$47.00
Scotia Capital Markets rates a "sector outperform", 1-year target price is US$55.00
(ABX : TSX : $40.39), Net Change: -1.61, % Change: -3.83%, Volume: 3,186,005
Newmont was better. Barrick reported neutral to slightly negative Q3 results. The company reported diluted EPS of $0.39, vs.
consensus of $0.40. The primary differences were lower gold sales volumes, offsetting higher copper volumes and lower copper
cash costs. Third quarter gold production was 1.93 million oz at total cash costs of $370/oz, and copper production was 99
million pounds at total cash costs of $0.91/lb. Full-year 2007 operating targets are now at the low end of management’s
previous ranges. Barrick currently expects full year production of approximately 8.1 million oz of gold (previous range of 8.1-
8.4 million oz) at total cash costs of about $350/oz (at the high end of the previous target range of $335-350/oz) and 400 million
pounds of copper at total cash costs of about $0.90/lb, in line with original 2007 guidance. Exploration/project work continues
on several fronts, highlighting: Chile (environmental approval for a 34 MW power plant and a 20 MW wind farm), Buzwagi
(detailed engineering 60% complete), Donlin (Barrick expects to deliver feasibility study by November 12, 2007), Kabanga
(Xstrata preparing pre-feasibility for year-end), Sedibelo (pre-feasibility complete, additional met work underway), Cortez Hills
lower zone (resource expected at year end), Pueblo Viejo (further definition of new Monte Oculto zone deposit), and Reko Diq
(scoping study complete envisioning 72,000 tpd operation, resource update expected by year-end).
Thursday 01 November 2007 Barrick Gold (ABX) - $44.13 - Corporate Development and Exploration Upside Highlighted
Sector Perform, Average Risk, Price Target $47.00 (previously $44.00)
Q3/07 earnings and adjusted cash flow were $0.39/sh and $0.75/sh, versus expectations of $0.47/sh and $0.72/sh, and consensus of $0.42/sh and $0.72/sh. Production of 1.9 million oz. at cash costs of $370/oz. compared to forecast of 2.1 million oz. at $370/oz. Relative to H1/07, higher costs are expected. Barrick reiterated guidance for gold production of 8.1MMoz in 2007, at cash costs of $350/oz, and copper production of 400MMlbs at a cost of $0.90/lb. Exploration successes at Cortez Hills where a new gold resource is expected in early 2008 and promising drill results at Goldstrike in Nevada, Banshee, Turquoise Ridge and Pueblo Viejo should ad to gold reserves. As a result of the more positive outlook RBC CM is increasing its target multiples and raising its price target from $44 to $47.
Wednesday 31 October 2007 Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX : TSX : $40.37 | NYSE : US$42.39)
Acquisition of Arizona Star
Blackmont Capital maintains "hold", 12-month target price is $45.00
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is not given
Tuesday 30 October 2007 Barrick bids $773 million for explorer Arizona Star
Toronto gold mining giant Barrick Gold Corp. has struck a friendly cash deal to scoop up a junior explorer for $773 million, a move that would give it an even bigger foothold in Chile with a controlling interest in one of the largest gold and copper deposits in the world.
Thursday 25 October 2007 Barrick Gold (ABX) - Highlands Pacific Ltd. agreed to sell its stake in the Kainantu gold mine in Papua New Guinea for US$141 million to Barrick Gold Corp., the world's largest gold producer. Barrick also agreed to buy exploration areas near the mine, Port Moresby-based Highlands said yestrday in a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange.
Wednesday 24 October 2007 Barrick Gold (ABX) - Rescuers on Wednesday evacuated the last of 54 miners who had been forced to take refuge in underground emergency shelters after a fire broke out at a gold mine in Australia. According to Australian Associated Press, no one was injured in the fire at Barrick Gold Corp's Kanowna Belle gold mine, 20km north-east of Kalgoorlie in the state of Western Australia.
Tuesday 16 October 2007 Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX : TSX : $42.06)
Analysts raised gold forecast
Blackmont Capital downgrades to "hold", 12-month target price is raised to $45.00
Friday 05 October 2007 Barrick Gold (ABX : TSX : $40.40), Net Change: 1.03, % Change: 2.62%, Volume: 3,738,820
We love Cramerica - Boo-Yah!!! Barrick got a favourable mention from Mad Money talking head Jim Cramer on Wednesday. Cramer said, "What if I gave you what might be the ideal stock to own right now, something that profits from everything that's squeezing the U.S. economy and the debt-ladenAmerican consumer, who's certainly not feeling that great right now, at the moment. I've got that stock, and the stock is...Barrick Gold Corp. For my money, this is the best gold stock to buy right now. Why ABX? Why gold? Because gold could be the solution for all of our problems. I have no doubt that this metal is going much higher, but that leaves us with the question, why ABX? ABX has larger gold reserves than anyone else in the industry -123 million ounces in proven and probably reserves. But what we care about right now isn't size, it's how prepared a gold miner is for higher prices, because we in Cramerica believe that gold's going higher still. ABX is totally prepared for higher gold prices, that means they're unhedged. ABX has decided that they believe gold is still going up, and they're not going to hedge. If you believe gold prices are going down, you shouldn't buy ABX. It's more levered to the price of gold than any other gold company, because they're not hedged. The price of gold will be the price they get for their gold and, with the price of gold going higher, that makes ABX by far the most attractive gold stock."
Thursday 04 October 2007 Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX : TSX : $39.37 | NYSE : US$39.41)
Analyst increases gold price assumption
RBC Capital Markets maintains "sector perform", 12-month target price is raised to $44.00
Wednesday 03 October 2007 Barrick Gold (ABX) - US$39.25 - Increased Price Target
Sector Perform, Average Risk, Price Target: US$44.00 (was US$32.00)
RBC CM increased its price target for ABX based on increased gold price forecasts. The past several months have been marked by a significant flow of funds into ABX shares. Barrick has become the large-cap North American gold equity of choice for many investors, given the challenges faced by Newmont. At last week's Denver Gold Forum, Barrick reiterated its guidance for higher cash costs in Q3/07, primarily due to increased waste-stripping at Veladero, Goldstrike and Bald Mountain, and RBC CM expects this to be partially offset by stronger average gold prices in the quarter. Barrick continues to wait on approval from Argentina and Chile on the cross-border agreement for Pascua Lama, and negotiations concerning Pueblo Viejo are on-going with the government of the Dominican Republic. At this point, RNC CM continues to forecast late 2010 start-ups at both projects, however there is significant risk of delays.
Tuesday 02 October 2007 Barrick Gold (ABX : NYSE : US$40.28) Net Change: 1.10, % Change: 2.81%, Volume: 10,754,700
Barrick Gold (ABX : TSX : $39.95), Net Change: 0.62, % Change: 1.58%, Volume: 5,188,604
With gold topping $750 an ounce on Friday, is it a stretch calling for $1,000 an ounce?Barrick CEO Gregory Wilkins was interviewed by CNBC on Friday and said gold could rise to $1,000 an ounce as supply continues to decline and demand for jewelry grows. We note that world-wide reserves have been on the decline and are not able to support strong demand. Mine production accounts for approximately 60-70% of the annual supply of gold. Global supply will continue to fall as central banks convert from sellers to buyers of gold and as gold producers de-hedge. Wilkins also says that Barrick has no plans to return to the futures markets to hedge its gold production, but does hedge its copper output. Barrick eliminated its operating mine hedges in February of 2007, most of which were a legacy of its acquisition of Placer Dome. The gold sector is dominated by Barrick, the world’s largest gold producer. At year-end 2006, the company had 123.1 million of ounces of reserves and produced 8.6 million ounces of gold during the year (or 8.4 million of equity ounces). In addition, Barrick has 6.0 billion pounds of mineral copper reserves and produced 367 million of pounds of copper in 2006.
Thursday 13 September 2007 Barrick Gold (ABX : TSX : $38.72), Net Change: -0.43, % Change: -1.10%, Volume: 2,942,501
“I yuv goooold! The look of it! The shmell of it! The tashte of it! The texture!” – Goldmember. With gold trading at 16-month highs, shares of Barrick have been setting 52-week highs almost daily. Arguably, the company is the pre-eminent gold stock listed in North America and has been the go-to stock for those seeking exposure to gold. The question we ask is, “When are we going to see a trickle-down effect to the other gold equities?” While many other gold stocks have performed well along with the rallying commodity price, equities are far from challenging their 52-week high levels. Notably among the senior gold producers (in order of market capitalization): Goldcorp (G) is off 21% from its highs; Newmont Mining (NEM) off 7.5%; Anglogold Ashanti (AU) off nearly 13%; Gold Fields (GFI) off 18%, and; Kinross Gold (K) off 15%. The same holds when you drop down a level and look at intermediate producers: IAMGOLD (IMG) off 30% from its high and Centerra Gold (CG) off 42%. According to Canaccord Adams’ estimates, the average Senior/Intermediate gold producer trades at a P/NAV multiple of 1.38
times - this is beneath the Canaccord Adams expected range 1.45-1.65 times. Barrick has maintained its full-year guidance of 8.1-8.4 Moz gold at total cash costs of $335-350/oz, and the company notes that second half costs will be higher than those of Q2/07. If we assume the mid-point of full-year guidance, then implied second half production would be approximately 4.26 Moz at total cash costs of $355/oz, but second half costs could be as high as US$370/oz, taking the pessimistic end of the
guidance range.
at Wed1331 Wednesday Sep 5 Ron Meisels called ABX a buy break out
Wednesday 29 August 2007 Barrick Gold (ABX : TSX : $32.84), Net Change: -1.04, % Change: -3.07%, Volume: 2,988,442
Newmont Mining (NEM : NYSE : US$41.07), Net Change: 0.62, % Change: 1.53%, Volume: 18,038,400
“The best place to find gold is in a gold mine.” – Every analyst or gold bug who has ever commented on consolidation in the
sector. Newmont, the world’s second-largest gold producer was showing strength in a down market yesterday, as rumours of a
potential takeover by Barrick, the world’s largest gold producer, began to swirl again. Speculation of such a marriage is not new
– back in March, it was the topic “du jour”. Yesterday morning, StreetAccount commented that it was being told the move in
Newmont shares is being attributed to a comment on a site frequented for its rumours that says Barrick will buy Newmont for a
price suggested to be in the $60/share cash range. Back in March, Barrick called a report in Business Week as “just another
tidbit of idle speculation” and “unsubstantiated, no sources.” Later yesterday, Bloomberg reported it was told by Barrick that the
rumoured bid for Newmont “has no substance and that very much remains the case today.” On August 7, Newmont Vice-
Chairman Pierre Lassonde indicated his company’s recent restructuring moves are part of a strategy to regain the crown of the
world’s largest goldminer. During a conference presentation, Lassonde was very bullish on the long-term outlook for gold. He
told reporters that gold could rise to $750 an ounce this year and to $850 an ounce within 12 months. Lassonde said, “Gold’s
time is coming,” adding that a lack of major discoveries in recent years, the increasing amount of time needed to bring a mine
into production and the huge current account deficit in the U.S. are reasons to invest in gold.
Friday 03 August 2007 nbf barrick gold(abx)us$33.10 – Q2 Operating Quarter in Line. RATING: sector perform. TARGET PRICE: us$37.00. RISK RATING: above average.
ABX reported Q2 net EPS $0.46/sh vs. EPS of $0.53/sh. We estimate operating EPS at $0.41/sh including the $66 mln (post-tax) opportunity cost for delivering into its hedge book as it realized $624/oz vs. spot gold price of $667/oz. We were expecting operating earnings of $0.42/sh. In Q2, ABX produced 1.957 mln oz at cash costs of $345/oz vs.. our estimate of 2.15 mln oz at $320/oz and produced 101 mln lbs copper at $0.77/lb cost vs. our estimate of 100 mln lbs at $0.92/lb. The company recognized better copper cash costs but was offset by lower gold production and higher costs than we expected. For 2007, it expects to produce 8.1-8.4 mln oz gold at cash costs of between $335 and 350/oz and 400 mln lbs copper at cash costs of $0.90/lb. After the Q2 delivery (500,000 oz), ABX has eliminated its corporate hedge book. Outstanding is its project hedge book of 9.5 mln oz (BE price of $302/oz) allocated to its development projects. We do not expect any near-term reductions to its hedge book as it is expensive to buy back. ABX received its Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approval from the Tanzanian government for the Buzwagi project this quarter. It expects Buzwagi to produce 250,000 oz annually at cash costs of $280/oz over a 10-year mine life. Our NAV of $18.60/sh and $37.00/sh target price is unchanged. We have made some minor adjustments to EPS and CFPS for 2007/2008 with new guidance.
Thursday 02 August 2007 rbc Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) - $32.70 - Steady Q2/07 Results - Forecasting Weaker Q3 Ahead of Q4 Rebound
Sector perform, Average Risk, Price Target $32.00
Q2/07 EPS and adjusted cash flow/share were $0.41 and $0.72 versus consensus of $0.42 and $0.64, respectively. Production of 1.96 million oz at total cash costs of $345/oz was in-line with RBC CM’s forecast of 2.06 million oz at $345/oz. Low cash costs in Q2/07 were driven primarily by Lagunas Norte, Cortez JV, Ruby Hill and a stronger than expected contribution from the Australian mines, helped by better than expected results from hedging. The company raised its guidance for costs in Q3/07. Its balance sheet is strong with $2.6 billion in cash and a debt to total cap ratio of 19%. $5.0 billion in capex over the next 3 years should be required which should be funded from existing cash, free cash flow and debt facilities.
Monday 16 July 2007 GOLDS: EXPECTATIONS OF Q2 FINANCIALS
The North American gold producers will begin reporting Q2 2007 financials starting the week of July 23, with Meridian reporting on July 24. In the seniors, Barrick and Kinross report on Aug. 1, Newmont on Aug. 2 and Goldcorp on Aug. 9. For Q2, we are generally in line with or within pennies of consensus estimates. Companies with exposure to base metals should benefit from higher prices in Q2 after negative adjustments in Q1 while those with silver exposure will continue to benefit from rising prices. For the group in general, we are anticipating the cost structure in Q2 ($325/oz) to be relatively flat with Q1 ($330/oz) due to strengthening in the oil price and the Canadian and Australian dollars which offset the gains in the precious and base metals pricing. Our earnings expectations, as well as the key issues to watch for, are detailed in this note. Gold averaged $667/oz in Q2, up 3% (or $17/oz) from $650/oz in Q1 2007 and up 6% (or $39/oz) over the Q2 2006 average of $628/oz. During the quarter, the gold price started strongly because of a declining U.S. dollar and significant de-hedging by numerous producers and realized a high of $691/oz but weakened to a low of $642/oz just before the quarter came to end on seasonal factors. Gold ended the quarter at $650/oz, the price which will be used in calculating mark-to-market values for gold hedge books.
Friday 11 May 2007 Tycoons sharing golden dreams
Flamboyant Barrick Gold Corp. founder Peter Munk is a good guy to know if you're interested in precious metals mining or beachfront properties to park super-sized yachts in the Adriatic Sea.
Thursday 03 May 2007 High gold price no 'cyclical blip,' Munk says
Barrick share price will respond when investors realize, 'this is not just a one-off increase in gold prices'
Thursday 03 May 2007 BARRICK GOLD(ABX)US$29.58 – HEDGE ELIMINATION HURTS EPS. RATING: SECTOR PERFORM. TARGET: US$37.00. RISK RATING: ABOVE AVERAGE. INDUSTRY RATING: MARKET WEIGHT.
ABX reported Q1 net loss of $0.18/sh versus EPS of $0.29/sh. We estimate operating loss at $0.19/sh including the $557 mln (post-tax) opportunity cost for delivering into its hedge book as it realized $386/oz vs. spot gold price of $650/oz. We were expecting operating loss of $0.33/sh, with the better performance coming from operating costs and lower Exploration & Development expense. In Q1, ABX produced 2.029 mln oz at cash costs of $313/oz vs.. our estimate of 1.9 mln oz at $355/oz and produced 100 mln lbs copper at $0.81/lb cost versus our estimate of 100 mln lbs at $0.92/lb. The better gold cash costs were evident at Goldstrike, Veladero and Lagunas Norte. For 2007, it expects to produce 8.1-8.4 mln oz gold at cash costs of between $335 and $350/oz and 400 mln lbs copper at cash costs of $0.90/lb. It reduced its hedge book by 2.0 mln oz in Q1 and announced that it delivered another 0.5 mln oz in Q2. After the Q2 delivery, Barrick’s hedge book will stand at 9.5 mln oz allocated to its development projects. ABX announced that it had purchased Emperor Mines’ 20% stake of the Porgera mine for $250 mln and has sold its Paddington mine for $38 mln. Barrick also sold its position in NovaGold (approximately 14.8%). Our NAV of $18.45/sh, target price of $37.00/sh and our Sector Perform rating are unchanged.
May 1, 2007 Barrick pays $557-million to exit hedges
Charge pushes gold miner to first loss in five years, but can now sell production at spot prices
VANCOUVER — — — Barrick Gold Corp. [ABX-T] has shaken off its golden handcuffs, announcing yesterday that it has eliminated the last of sales contracts that prevented the company from taking full advantage of rising gold prices.
Monday 23 April 2007 GOLDS: EXPECTATIONS OF Q1 FINANCIALS.
The North American gold producers will begin reporting Q1 2007 financials starting the week of April 23, with Teck Cominco reporting on April 23. In the seniors, Newmont reports on April 26, Barrick on May 2, Kinross on May 7, and Goldcorp on May 11. For Q1, we are generally in line with or within pennies of consensus estimates for the gold companies. Companies with exposure to silver should benefit from higher prices again this quarter while those exposed to base metals will see negative base metal pricing adjustments. For the group in general, we are anticipating the cost structure in Q1 to be about 17% higher at about $330/oz than in Q4 (averaged $282/oz).
Friday 23 February 2007 Barrick profit soars
Higher prices, increased production help gold miner turn a record $418-million (U.S.) profit for the year 22/02/07 10:55 AM (7)
BARRICK GOLD(ABX)US$31.46 – Q4 OPERATING EARNINGS IMPACTED BY HEDGE BOOK. RATING: SECTOR PERFORM. TARGET: US$37.00. RISK RATING: ABOVE AVERAGE. INDUSTRY RATING: MARKET WEIGHT.
ABX reported Q4 net EPS were $0.48/sh versus $0.32/sh a year ago. Excluding unusuals, we estimate operating EPS came in at $0.15/sh vs. our estimate of $0.49/sh. The difference is due to the delivery of the 1.0-mln ounces hedge position. ABX produced 2.44 mln oz gold at cash costs of $287/oz (we were looking for 2.4 mln oz at $292/oz). 2007 operating guidance is now estimated at 8.1-8.4 mln oz at cash costs of $335-$350/oz; we were modelling 8.4 mln oz at cash costs of $330/oz. Subject to permits and construction approvals, capital costs are estimated at $1.1-$1.8 bln. It estimates production will remain relatively flat over the next three years. Based on a $475/oz gold price (vs. $400/oz last year), ABX reported 2006 reserves of 123.1 mln oz (vs. 139 mln oz a year ago at $400/oz). Netting out 14 mln oz (mln oz) for sale of the South Deep, it did not replace 2006 production. On its development pipeline, capital for Pascua-Lama has increased to $2.3-$2.4 bln from $1.4-$1.5 bln. Pueblo Viejo is also suffering cost creep with costs now estimated at $2.1-$2.3 bln from $1.35 bln. We also see slippage in production start-ups. We have incorporated year-end reserves, financial and 2007 guidance and revisions to the copper price. Our NAV drops to $18.45/sh (was $19.50/sh) and our target falls to $37.00/sh (was $39.00/sh).
Barrick Gold (ABX) - US$31.46 – Q4 Results In Line
Sector Perform, Average Risk – Price Target: US$35.00
Barrick reported 2006 earnings (before one-time items) of $1.76 per share and operating cash flow of $2.56 per share
inline with the RBC CM estimates of $1.77 and $2.55 respectively. Gold production in Q4/06 of 2.44 million oz was slightly better than the estimate of 2.38 million oz and cash costs in the quarter of $287/oz were lower than the RBC CM forecast of $311/oz.
Barrick’s corporate gold hedge book was reduced by 1.0 mm oz in Q4/06, and by a further 1.3 mm oz 2007 year-to-date. 2007 Outlook. ABX has guided for gold production of 8.1 to 8.4 million ounces in 2007, with costs in the $335 to $350/oz range. RBC CM adjusted its production and cost outlook, and the 2007 NAV and cash flow estimates have slightly declined. As a result the target price declined to $35.00 from $36.00.
Friday 23 February 2007 ts Barrick Gold looks beyond yellow metal
Stock price slips even though profit in fourth quarter more than doubles
2006
Friday 08 December 2006 TORONTO: BARRICK TAKEOVER TRY FAILS
Barrick Gold, the world's biggest gold firm, has failed in its hostile takeover bid for junior gold firm NovaGold of Vancouver, a bid put forward in July. NovaGold owns 70 per cent of the Donlin Creek goldfield in Alaska, one of the world's biggest unexploited goldfields, Barrick owning the remaining 30 per cent. NovaGold's directors accused its partner in the project of trying to gain full ownership through an undervalued offer. Fewer than 15 per cent of NovaGold's shares were tendered.
Sunday 03 December 2006 TORONTO: BARRICK TAKEOVER BID SEEMS DOOMED
The hostile takeover bid by Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest gold company, for junior gold firm and partner Nova Gold expires next Wednesday with little prospect of success. The original bid of US$1.7 billion, or US$16 a share, has been extended several times since the original expiry deadline on Nov. 21. Only about 14 per cent of NovaGold shares have been tendered. The junior firm has advised its shareholders that the offer undervalues their company's worth and accuses Barrick of trying to acquire the Donlin Creek property cheaply. Donlin Creek is thought to be one of the world's largest undeveloped goldfields. NovaGold owns 70 per cent of it, and Barrick the rest.
Friday 10 November 2006 Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest golf firm, has changed its tactics to achieve its hostile takeover of junior gold company NovaGold Resources Inc. Barrick has abandoned its condition that at least 50.1 of NovaGold shareholders tender their shares, while maintaining its offer of US$16 a share. To date, a majority of the junior firm's stockholders have followed their directors advice to reject the offer as inadequate, but 22.5 have accepted Barrick's offer. Barrick said on Thursday that it will buy all shares tendered by Nov. 24, even though this could end in less than total control of NovaGold. The smaller firm's directors accuse Barrick of trying to obtain total control of a goldfield in Alaska in the exploitation of which they are partners.
Saturday 04 November 2006 Canadian firm Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest gold concern, says its third-quarter profit zoomed upwards to US$405 million, or 46 cents a share. The result is almost four times higher than the previous third-quarter outcome. Barrick CEO Greg Wilkins says his company is profiting from continuing high world prices not only for gold but also copper.
Thursday 02 November 2006 Barrick Gold Q3 profit soars
The world's biggest gold producer, it expects fourth-quarter gold production will be its best yet. Global portfolio is paying off, says CEO Greg Wilkins, as profit hits $405-million (U.S.).
Wednesday 01 November 2006 VANCOUVER: JUNIOR GOLD FIRM STILL RESISTING BARRICK HOSTILE BID
Directors of NovaGold Resources Inc. have again advised shareholders to reject a takeover bid by Barrick Gold Corp., the world biggest gold company. NovaGold CEO Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse has advised that Barrick's "best and final offer" still isn't good enough and that Barrick should either improve or abandon it, thus allowing NovaGold to get on with normal operations. Earlier this month, the Vancouver-based company reported a loss of between $2.6 million and $4.7 million, the result being due chiefly to expenses caused by the effort to fend off the hostile offer. Last week, Barrick increased its offer to US$1.7 billion, or US$16 a share, up from $14.50. NovaGold accused Barrick of trying to seize their joint project at Donlon Lake in southern Alaska at an unfair price. The project is considered the world's largest undeveloped gold deposit.
Monday 30 October 2006 In Montenegro's first major private deal since it gained independence in June, the Canadian mining company, Barrick Gold Corporation, will buy an abandoned shipyard on the Adriatic coast and turn it into a luxury resort. The shipyard is at Tivat, about 90 kilometres from the capital, Podgorica. Barrick Gold will pay CDN$41.4 million for the Arsenal shipyard and for the rights to develop the immediate coastline. The shipyard was first built in 1889 by the Austro-Hungarian navy. It was used as a naval base by the former Yugoslavia. The area is heavily polluted. Part of the deal involves money to clean up the pollution. The head of Barrick, Peter Munk, plans to invest about CDN$151 million over the next two years to create a hotel complex, yacht basin, shopping malls, and other facilities.
Friday 13 October 2006 TORONTO: BARRICK EXTENDS HOSTILE TAKEOVER OFFER
Barrick Gold Corp., the world biggest gold company, has extended for the third time its hostile takeover bid for NovaGold Resources Inc., this time until Oct. 24. Barrick is offer US$14.50 per share for NovaGold, or about US$1.5 billion. Barrick reiterated on Thursday that the offer is fair, claiming that were it not for the offer NovaGold shares would be worth only US$11. NovaGold's directors repeated their advice to the companies stockholders not to accept the offer, claiming that so far 99 of them have accepted the advice. NovaGold accuses its competitor of trying to seize the Donlin Creek joint venture in Alaska at below its value. Barrick has a 30-per cent stake in the venture, NovaGold having the rest.
Monday 28 August 2006 globe NovaGold sues Barrick Vancouver — NovaGold Resources is filing another lawsuit against Barrick Gold, alleging violation of U.S. securities laws, and calling for a suspension of Barrick's $1.5-billion takeover bid.
Wed 02/08/2006 rci Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest gold company, has reported a record second-quarter profit of $459 million US, or 53 cents a share. Barrick says its sales more than tripled as a result of its acquisition last year of its rival Placer Dome of Vancouver. The acquisition enabled the Canadian firm to surpass Newmont Mining of Denver as the world's top gold miner. Barrick has operations in Canada, the U.S., Australia, Peru, Chile, Argentina and Tanzania.
Tuesday Jul 25, 2006 BARRICK GOLD CORP., the world’s largest gold producer, is launching two takeover bids worth a total $1.8-billion to boost its presence in North America. A US$1.53-billion hostile all-cash takeout of NovaGold Resources Inc. will give Barrick control of the Donlin Creek gold property in Alaska, while it made a separate $64.7-million all-cash bid for Pioneer Metals
Tuesday May 9, 2006 rci TORONTO: BARRICK WARY OF SOUTH AMERICA
Canadian gold producer Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest gold firm, says it's interested in expanding its activities in Pakistan but would be wary of investing in South American nations like Venezuela and Bolivia. Barrick's founder and chairman, Peter Munk, says that if he had a choice of investment between countries run by Evo Morales and Hugo Chavez, the presidents of Bolivia and Venezuela respectively, and Pakistan, he would opt for Pakistan. The two South American leaders have been nationalizing their nations' natural resources. Mr. Munk recalled at the company annual meeting that when CEO Greg Wilkins visited Pakistan recently, he was welcomed by President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. In February, Barrick paid $100 million for a share of the Reko Dig copper-and-gold development from a Chilean enterprise. Mr. Wilkins, for his part, told the shareholders that Barrick would be interested in more projects in Pakistan despite the presence there of al-Qaeda terrorists.
Friday Dec 30, 2005 nyt THE COST OF GOLD A Drier and Tainted Nevada May Be Legacy of a Gold Rush By KIRK JOHNSON Draining nearly 10 million gallons of water a day is just one of the many byproducts of Nevada's tangled love affair with gold.
Charts
ABX
Gold on the rise again Gold prices hit new highs and Africa's AngloGold, the world's second largest producer, predicts stronger prices still.
Saturday Dec 28, 2002 cbc GOLD HITS $350 US AN OUNCE
Gold bullion moved above the $350 US-an-ounce mark Friday - its
highest level in more than 5 1/2 years.
Dec 22, 2005 rci Directors of Vancouver-based gold firm Placer Dome Inc. has agreed to accept an improved takeover bid by rival Barrick Gold Corp., a merger which would create the world's biggest gold enterprise. The development came after Barrick sweetened its hostile bid from $10,8 billion to $12.1 billion. Two-thirds of the Vancouver company's must accept the bid. Barrick is at present the world's third-biggest gold firm. Placer Dome retains the right to consider higher bids, but Barrick likewise is entitled to up its own second bid. As part of the transaction, a third Canadian firm, Goldcorp Inc., will acquire three Placer Dome mines in Ontario and one in Chile for $1.49 billion US.
Tuesday Dec 13, 2005 ts Canadian gold firms reach truce on takeover bid
Barrick Gold Corp. has withdrawn its challenge of Placer Dome's shareholder rights defence plan and will extend its multibillion-dollar hostile takeover bid for Canada's No. 2 gold producer until mid-January.
Wednesday Dec 18, 2002 cbc
GOLD BULLION HITS 5-YEAR HIGH
The price of gold bullion surged to a 5-year high Tuesday before
slipping back as the rumblings of a possible U.S. attack on Iraq grew
louder.
Friday May 24, 2002 see Gold 27-MONTH HIGH detail
Wednesday Feb 6, 2002 cbc
MARKETS CONTINUE IN WORRY MODE; GOLDS TUMBLE
GOLD RALLY FADES AFTER BULLION SOARS ABOVE $300 US; HIGHEST LEVEL IN 2 YEARS cbc
For a while early Wednesday, it looked like the week-long gold rally
would continue. But not long after the spot price for the precious metal
soared past $300 US an ounce - a 2-year high - the price slid
back.
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