Wed 1170
With the Democratic Convention over, one might have expected a slight hiatus before the end-of-the-month Republican circus, however the declaration on Saturday of a high state of alert in the major financial centers of New York and Washington gives scant respite. We commend the analysis by Jonathan Marcus of the BBC who reminds us: "The prevailing wisdom is that al-Qaeda actually 'likes' George W Bush in the sense that his muscular rhetoric is seen as playing up the very divisions that al-Qaeda wishes to emphasise. The Bush administration's fixation with Saddam Hussein and Iraq is widely seen as being a distraction from the real campaign against terrorism." Thus, the hoped-for result of an attack could be that voters would back the incumbent commander-in-chief and re-elect Mr Bush.
While we are unlikely to successfully probe the thinking of Al Qaeda, Jan Davis recently returned from Boston where he attended the Democratic National Convention, particularly as a delegate attached to the National Democratic Institute's
International Leaders Forum. He tells us that "Except for me, the place was chock full of diplomats, ex presidents and prime ministers, and was astoundingly interesting", and he will share this experience with us.
Jeremy Jonas returns for a continuation of the discussion of two weeks ago of his views on China, Australia and India. Confirming statements made that evening, is the first in a series of articles by New York Times reporters Joseph Kahn and Jim Yardley on the Great Divide between rural and urban
China: "China has the world's fastest-growing economy but is one of its most unequal societies. …This year, the number of destitute poor, which China classifies as those earning less than $75 a year, increased for the first time in 25 years. The government estimates that the number of people in this lowest stratum grew by 800,000, to 85 million people, even as the economy grew by a robust 9 percent." See nytimes.com/2004/08/01/ Whether it's the second largest economy in the world (as recently stated by Sherry Cooper), it is creating a lot of opportunities for foreigners and for Chinese.
We will also be introducing Marie Griffiths, owner of CKGM FM (105.1 FM) who is a great supporter of the CRTC, and whose opinions on the CHOI and Al Jazeera decisions may surprise some.
We hope you will join us for what promises to be a diverse and diverting evening. Please check Wed1170. here for updates and notes on required reading!
Diana and David
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Sat 7/31/2004 David / Diana
I have just returned from a week in Boston, during which I attended the Democratic National Convention, particularly as a delegate attached to the National Democratic Institute's International Leaders Forum. Except for me, the place was chock full of diplomats, ex presidents and prime ministers, and was astoundingly interesting. I have the agenda and details, and I would like to let you have a look at it and discuss the events. The security was like nothing you could believe.
I hope I will be able to attend next Wednesday.
All my best,
Jan Davis
Last week Wed 1169 we had:
Maisonneuve won two National Magazine Awards: a gold medal for spot illustration and a silver for writing on social issues. We’re particularly pleased at the result; with two medals out of a possible six, we’re batting a respectable .333 in the majors.
The Maisonneuve office moves to a new space in downtown Montreal on (wait for it) boulevard de Maisonneuve.
Floods in China and southeast Asia, forest fires in Portugal and southern France, locusts threaten to destroy crops from Libya to Mauritania ... we think we should go somewhere else.
So, please do check last week wed1168
David and Diana
Wed 1170 News slide show | Latest
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Wednesday Night Salon
# 1170 Aug. 4th, 2004
Wednesday Night Salon # 1170
August 4, 2004
OPEC
OPEC is an international organization of eleven oil-producing countries which own more than 75% of the world’s total proven crude oil reserves and supply about 40% of the world’s oil output. Petroleum is the major source of revenue in OPEC member countries. Other countries, including Canada and Russia, provide the remainder. Venezuela, the sixth largest oil producer in the world, is an OPEC member and supplies the United States with about 10% of its oil supplies. Russia, not a member of OPEC, is a major supplier as well.
With Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez’ political problems and that country’s instability as well as the current Yukos problems in Russia and the uncertainty of supply from the Middle East, it is unlikely that OPEC can maintain its promise to deliver an adequate supply at reasonable cost.
[Editor's note: The Economist this week gives an excellent summary of the current issues. See economist.com/]
THE ORANGE TERROR ALERT IN THE U.S.
The United States has issued an orange alert, based on information supplied by recently captured Al Qaeda members. However, it is questionable whether any individual Al Qaeda members possess information in excess of that which they require in the immediate future, it appears that the information leading to the issuing of the orange alert is several years old
[Editor's Note: an interesting perspective on the authenticity and timeliness of the information may be found on the Debka Website ], and the U.K. has apparently decided not to act on it. This being so, the question inevitably arises as to whether the orange alert had more to do with presidential politics and timing to coincide with the Republican convention than perceived external threats. On the other hand, Tom Ridge, Chief of Homeland Security, would be in a very difficult situation had he failed to act and the information proved valid.
THE DEATH OF RADIO – SEVERELY EXAGGERATED.
With the advent of television, it was widely predicted that radio would die a natural death. However, FM radio stations are thriving and making a profit. Whereas television tends to be national or international in scope, radio caters to a local constituency and tends not to carry over well to other communities or constituencies. Each radio station has a personality of its own and its broadcasters project that personality.
Canada's CRTC (Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission), which reports to Parliament through the Minister of Canadian Heritage, issues broadcast licenses which are subject to periodic renewal. In July, the CRTC denied Genex Corporation, the operator of CHOI radio station in Québec, its application for renewal of its broadcast license after repeated warnings about broadcast content.
The issue is one of freedom of speech, with supporters of CHOI maintaining that the refusal to renew the license of a radio station because of the repeated broadcast of material offensive to some, is a dangerous precedent in the denial of freedom of expression. Their credo is that if the listeners don't like the content, they can turn it off or switch to another station.
However, others believe that unlike other media of expression, the airwaves are a limited resource and it is only reasonable that the CRTC, while maintaining the right of broadcasters to be free from political interference, ensure that they remain within the parameters determining the domain for which their licence was granted. Is the CRTC too conservative? Perhaps, perhaps not, but few would welcome a free-for-all on the airwaves.
The CHOI issue is also inevitably linked with two other recent CRTC decisions: one rejecting Italian broadcaster RAI International and the second approving the distribution of Arabic network Al-Jazeera by Canadian cable companies [albeit under such stringent conditions that it is questionable whether any cable carrier will pursue the opportunity].
Again, Wednesday Night demonstrated a range of opinions and passions regarding the three decisions, which is, in itself, an indication of the importance we accord to the presence of radio in our lives, despite the pervasiveness of the Internet and television.
THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION AND THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE
Wednesday Nighter Jan Davis requested and received an invitation to attend the recent Democratic Convention in Boston as a delegate attached to the National Democratic Institute's (NDI) International Leaders Forum. The NDI brought together more than 600 government officials, parliamentarians, ambassadors and political party leaders from more than 120 nations for the Convention. Jan shared with Wednesday Night the week's impressive Program Agenda which covered everything from the sometimes complex electoral system (Electoral College) in the U.S., to current issues for the Democratic platform and international relations, and the work of the Commission on Presidential Debates and its voter education program. The documentation is a well-balanced, comprehensive course in the American political system.
Despite the extreme security surrounding the Convention, the ease of access accorded a foreign national with no ties to the U.S. Democratic Party was extraordinary. [The Forum on International Affairs included four former Presidents as panellists, - one of whom was Bill Clinton -, introduced by Madeleine Albright and moderated by Kim Campbell.]
Nothing like the NDI or its Republican counterpart International Republican Institute (IRI) exists in Canada and, while there may be some foreign observers at Canadian leadership conventions, there does not seem to be the same effort to promote understanding of how Canadian political processes work. Possibly the difference in approaches reflects the much greater importance of U.S. actions on the world stage. We can only ask how really involved are the majority of Canadians in the political process, with the possible exception of the municipal level, and what changes in that process would work to our benefit?
Meanwhile, back to Boston – does the Kerry-Williams ticket stand a chance? All agree this will be a tight race, but opinion remains sharply divided on the (desirable) outcome.
THE PREMIERS' MEETING IN NIAGARA
In a build-up to meeting with the prime minister, the premiers have decided on targeting Pharmacare rather that supporting Mr. Martin’s objective of reducing waiting times. To Wednesday Night medical experts, neither appears to provide a solution to current problems. Some support the idea of measuring and improving six specific procedures but believe that putting it into effect will be difficult. Service-based funding appears to be a better solution, while a two-tiered medical system continues to enjoy popularity.
UNITED STATES
Current Beige Book
U.S.
The U.S. real economic growth was a disappointing 3% for the second quarter following a revised 4½% growth for the first quarter. Although growing at a steady pace, it was the smallest growth since the first quarter of 2003. Personal consumption was the lowest since 1995 because of the rise in energy prices. Spending on durable goods (particularly autos) was down 2½%. Housing, capital investments, exports and services were very strong. A 0.7% decline in consumer spending in June was the steepest decline in three years. Personal income continued to rise at a more moderate pace. Strong consumer sentiment surveys may indicate a temporary lull. Manufacturing is recovering with strong new orders, higher production and employment. Manufacturing inventories rose by $48 billion in the second quarter. Services in July grew strongly. Construction spending eased in June and second quarter housing affordability reached a two-year low, given higher mortgage rates and prices. Employment cost moderated in the second quarter. G.D.P. is expected at 4% - 4½% in the second half and corporate profits rising by 20%. The Fed should be increasing its Fed Fund rate again next week (August 10) by ¼% to 1½%. The stock market has lost over 325 points in the last month because of the $4.00 rise in crude oil (reaching over $44.00, its highest in twenty-one years), the geopolitical situation, the Fed tightening and the political uncertainty going into the November election. Employment for July is expected to rebound by 200,000 new jobs.
Near-Term Outlook:
- Euro: U.S.$1.20 U.S. to $ 1.22 U.S.
- Crude oil Crude Oil - $43.00 - $45.00 U.S.
- Gold:Gold $391.00 - $396.00 U.S.
N.B. Revised economic data for 2001 indicates now that there was no recession.
CANADA
Gross domestic product rebounded by 0.3% in May, fuelled by energy prices and stronger exports, increased production, exploration and transportation of crude oil, natural gas, its fastest since 1995, strong housing construction and public sector with the end of strikes in Newfoundland, B.C. and Ontario, tourism's gradual recovery, stronger mining sector with high commodity prices (copper is up 60% in the latest year), improving manufacturing sector and lean inventories. Sales of existing homes in June rose by 1½%, its fourth highest month on record at close to 40,000 units, with record average price rising by close to 10%. Business confidence improved in the second quarter with an upbeat outlook for investments and jobs. Because of the record rise in gasoline prices, consumer spending fell to its weakest level since the last recession.
Second quarter G.D.P. is expected to rise by over 4%, its best quarterly performance since 2002, outpacing the U.S. for the first time in over one year.
Bank of Canada is likely to tighten policy by ¼% to 2¼% at its September 8 meeting.
The stock market has lost over 200 points since June 23 for the same reasons as in the U.S.
Housing prices in Montreal
Note
Wednesday-Night creates charts and follows stocks, including timely related financial news items, in which Wednesday Nighters are interested and in order to demonstrate a service that could eventually be developed and marketed. Wednesday Nighters are invited to participate and help to test the service.
QUOTES of the EVENING
- “Radio has become more popular since technology has become more complicated.”
- “The penalty is harsh, but the government was right to intervene.”
- “Airwaves are public property. The C.R.T.C. represents majority opinion.”
- “Ninety percent of what comes over the airwaves is offensively bland.”
- “Freedom of speech is a red herring. If CRTC licences a station to serve a given constituency, they [the licensee] have an obligation to conform to the constituency that they are licensed to serve.”
- “The spectrum that the CRTC permits is less than the spectrum a constituency expects.”
from last week Wed1169
- “Water is a human right. Everyone in the world has the right to (access to) water”
- “There is less ethical problem with leftover embryos which were not created for the purpose of killing them”
- “The economies that believe in hell are more likely to succeed than those that don’t”
- “The markets would be happier if Bush is elected than if he is not. Bush's platform is perceived to be more pro-business than the Democrats'"
- “The (Canadian) minority government will last eighteen months”
- "It's harder to become president of the Harvard Law Review than to become President of the United States"
from Wed 1168
- “In Canada, there is capital available for good ideas but the bar is high.”
- “For a while, we had double digit returns and so they (pension funds) went to better benefits but now they are having problems.”
- The strength (weakness) of the Canadian dollar is the result of events in the rest of the world, rather than to good Canadian policy".
Notes by Herb Bercovitz OWN & Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN
2004 W-N Links for #1170
2004 Notes for #1170
Ottawa, 2 July 2003 ow
Broadcasting Decision CRTC 2003-194 Canadian Hellenic Cable Radio Ltd.
In this decision, the Commission approves the application by Canadian Hellenic Cable Radio Ltd. (Hellenic Radio) for a new ethnic FM radio station in Montréal at 105.1 MHz. The new station will direct its programming primarily to the Greater Montréal Area’s Greek-speaking community and will also provide ethnic programming in Armenian, Croatian, Serbian, Russian and Tagalog, as well as in English and French.
Ottawa, 2 July 2003 ow News release
CRTC approves eight new Quebec radio stations — Denies application to transfer Astral Media’s Quebec AM stations and CFOM-FM Quebec City to a corporation to be controlled by TVA Group
Thursday Aug 5, 2004 ts
Another banner year for housing
It comes as a surprise even to the industry but housing starts are expected to stay scorching hot this year, with 2004 shaping up to be the strongest year for new home construction since 1987. see wn Real estate
Thursday Aug 5, 2004 ts
U.S. factory orders, service sector pick up
WASHINGTON—Hope for the U.S. expansion got a boost yesterday when a batch of buoyant numbers signalled the economy`s soft spot may prove short-lived and pointed to more interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve Board.
Friday Aug 6, 2004 ts Ottawa lets U.S. use data from NORAD
OTTAWA—Canada has agreed to allow the United States to use NORAD`s early missile warning system as it deploys ballistic missile interceptors this fall. [goody] Military news | MILNEWSmore daily Military Links
Tuesday Aug 3, 2004 ts
World demand spurs manufacturing
LONDON—Global economic growth is generating robust manufacturing output in Europe and Japan, surveys showed, despite weak domestic demand in the euro zone and a slowdown in China.
Tuesday Aug 3, 2004 ts
Crude oil futures contract tests new peak price near $44 U.S.
NEW YORK—U.S. oil prices struck a peak yesterday, climbing to slightly less than $44 (U.S.) a barrel, after the United States raised its security alert to high for a possible al Qaeda attack on a top financial institution. see WN Oil notes
Sunday Aug 1, 2004 cbc
ECONOMY GREW 0.3 PER CENT IN MAY
The Canadian economy grew by 0.3 per cent in May, following a slim
advance of 0.1 per cent in April, Statistics Canada said Thursday.
Jul 30th 2004 ec  Soft patch or marshland?
According to the latest figures, the American economy hit a soft patch in the spring. Will it bounce back, or get bogged down?
AMERICANS have fallen prey to a variety of economic anxieties in the past year—some real, some imagined. First, they fretted that growth was not translating into jobs, then that growth might spill over into inflation. But growth itself, sometimes at stupendous rates, has been more or less taken for granted. After all, according to revised figures released on Friday July 30th, the American economy expanded by 4.5% in the first quarter of this year, by a shade over 4% in the final quarter of 2003, and by 7.4% in the quarter before that (all at annualised rates). Even the shallow recession of 2001 turns out not to have qualified as a recession at all, by the technical definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth
Thursday Jul 29, 2004 SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE by Margaret A. Somerville
Canadians have nuanced, moderate views on social issues, and thought the Liberals would reflect that more than the Conservatives
Jul 31, 2004 GARDEN STATE: NOW PLAYING IN NY & LA - SELECT CITIES AUG 6
GARDEN STATE stars Zach Braff, Natalie Portman, Peter Sarsgaard and Ian Holm. NEWSWEEK's David Ansen says "Writer-Director Zach Braff has a genuine filmmaker's eye and is loaded with talent." Watch the teaser trailer that has all of America buzzing and talk back with Zach Braff on the Garden State Blog at:
Wednesday Jul 28, 2004 Immigration minister pledges overhaul of refugee system 
Immigration Minister Judy Sgro plans to speed up the often drawn-out process of deciding refugee cases by strictly limiting the avenues of appeal available to claimants. ![[Click for Global video with this story]](http://mirror.canada.com/toronto/icons/video_global.gif)
Wednesday Jul 28, 2004 cbc
SGRO WANTS CHURCHES TO SCRAP SANCTUARY FOR ILLEGALS
People facing deportation from Canada should not be given sanctuary by
churches, says Immigration Minister Judy Sgro.
Monday, July 19, 2004 China: The two-edged dynamo,
Sherry Cooper, global economic strategist, BMO Financial Group
Duration:7m 47s
1904 comparison from Gerald Ratzer
Wed 1169 July 28, 2004 The Democratic Convention "This Land is My Land" then fresh water then Maisonneuve Magazine with Derek Webster the Publisher ; Stem Cell Research with Dr. Margo Somerville and Alexandra Tcheremenska-Greenhill MD; James Greenhill , Paul Clarke; Housing prices in Montreal
and more from Dr. Richard Bruno on The McGill Office of Technology Transfer (OTT)
Peter Perkins; Alex Weinstein, Benoit Mailloux , Allan Mass. Gerald Ratzer OWN , Notes by Herb Bercovitz | Jacques Clement report from 1169 |
Albums | slides | click for 2400x251 1169 pan 3 | pan 1 | webshots.com for more pans
After 8 years, it's great to be back in the Big City. I'm currently finishing up my 5th year of a five year program in osteopathic studies (in Montreal) and preparing a Master's thesis. I've started my own physiotherapy/osteopathy practice and you can check out the details (including what osteopathy is) on my new website www.AnatomyNat.com . Always looking for new clients!!!
natalie hollinger [natalierobin@yahoo.com]
mobile (514) 941-6956
2400x206 photo & scroll to find her
Preview this week's slide show
w-n 1170 | past from 1107 w-n slides
Dear Peter, [Ratzer]
We are looking forward to your visit with great enthusiasm! Certainly an update on the future of pensions would be welcome, as would be whatever you would like to highlight on new developments in the field of Public Private Partnerships and the Private Finance Initiative. As you say, the legislation discussion may have been a bit detailed for the audience, although we had many enthusiastic reviews of your visit, and it is summer, so possibly more emphasis on the second topic would be good. Have a good trip and we await you on the 11th. Fondly, Diana
David - I will be in Montreal from next Thursday 5 August for a couple of weeks, but since I am leaving on the evening of Wednesday 18 August I will only be able to join you on Wednesday 11 August.
Would you like to have a general discussion on the future of pensions? Last time I mentioned the legislation that was going through the UK Parliament and there is little to add on that (besides, I think it was a bit detailed for much of the audience), but the general issue of how to provide for pensions in future is still a very live topic of debate here. There are also continuing debates on the appropriate investment strategy for pension funds and how the capital markets can help manage the risks. I would be happy to introduce a discussion on these topics.
But if you think you have heard enough from me on pensions I could discuss new developments in the field of Public Private Partnerships and the Private Finance Initiative. They are trying out different models in the UK that might have some application elsewhere.
Please click here to see new/updated pages since last visit
January We Got Him!Eliot A. Cohen, who kindly contributed this article, is professor of strategic studies at the Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University.
 Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Manufacturing Profit Margins Recovering Well - August 04, 2004
Last year’s appreciation of the Canadian dollar put a major squeeze on manufacturers’ profits. But with exports now on a solid recovery track, profit margins are widening in most sectors. see his wn page.
Past issues
Friday Aug 6, 2004 cbc
MOORE PREACHING TO THE CONVERTED: POLL
Michael Moore's movie, Fahrenheit 9/11, is making money, but it's
not making new friends, a poll shows.
Friday Aug 6, 2004 cbc
HUNTINGDON PARENTS TO CHALLENGE CURFEW
Parents in a small Quebec town say they will challenge a controversial
curfew bylaw that holds them responsible for their children's activities overnight.
David and Diana:
One of these days, I'm actually going to make it down to Montreal on a Wednesday night to see everyone again. Thanks for keeping me in the loop, and best wishes to all.
Steve Poloz
The most Hospitable Host in town
& ../Wednesday-Night.com/ lives here!
 Wed1169
 Wed1171
The views above are neither those of the authors nor the owner of the website, but merely reflect discussions that took place on a this evening
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Pumping all they canAug 4th 2004 The Economis 
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