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Wednesday Night Salon
#1228 Sept. 14 2005 Page 2
intro Wed1228 | Wed1228 slide show
INTRODUCTION
Wednesday Night's usual impeccable timeliness prevailed again this evening, with the predominant topic of aviation on the evening of the day when Delta and Northwest Airlines had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from their creditors.
AUTHOR! AUTHOR!
Two very different novels – and their authors – graced the Wednesday Night gathering, while the shadow of a third book, Peter Newman's was also very present.
Colin Everard's lively first novel Safe Skies raises important issues regarding aviation safety in the developing world and the dangers of politicization of the agencies that oversee the implementation of international safety standards.
William Weintraub's newest offering Crazy about Lili recounts the adventures of a star-struck young poet in developing Montreal of the 1940s, the heyday of burlesque theatre and other sinful pleasures.
The authors disclaim identification with the principal figures in their respective books, but each brings a wealth of knowledge and informed detail to his topic.
The evening was enlivened by the most welcome presence after a long absence of Ghislaine Richard, formerly Canada's official representative to ICAO, and subsequently Vice-Chair of the Canadian Air Transport Security Authority.
William Weintraub
is one of the most gifted chroniclers of 20th century Montreal. His body of work includes the novels Why Rock the Boat and The Underdogs and also two volumes of classic non-fiction, City Unique: Montreal Days and Nights in the 1940s and '50s and Getting Started: A Memoir of the 1950s. His new book is another novel, set in Montreal in 1948. It's the story of a 17-year-old McGill freshman's struggle for adulthood, which is precipitated by a visit with his uncle to the Gayety burlesque theatre to see the stripper Lili L'Amour and a subsequent meeting with her in her dressing room.
Among other themes, Crazy about Lili brings to life the lost art of classical striptease, very different from what goes on in the strip clubs today. There was showmanship then, artistry, performed not in bars, but on a stage and the women who did it had reputations that often extended beyond international borders. Like Gypsy Rose Lee, Sally Rand and others, Lily St-Cyr, Montreal's Sweetheart, was a much-admired exemplar of the art. Once again, Bill's love of Montreal and its history has created an endearing book and an appreciation of our wonderful past.
All are invited to the book launch on Thursday, September 22, at 5:00 at Nicholas Hoare on Greene Avenue
SAFE SKIES AND SAFE SKIES
Colin's book (which is dedicated to all people who board an aircraft) was launched in Vienna where it was introduced by the British Ambassador who, despite his numerous official tasks had read the book before the launch and in his speech underlined that not only has Colin written a book that is a great story, but more importantly he has stimulated the average person to think about air safety, including the critical need for implementation in the developing world of international aviation safety standards, aviation infrastructures, investment in training of local staff, and monitoring of the systems.
Citing Indonesia, with its 40+ local languages as an example, Colin reminds us that everything must be done in English, the lingua franca of aviation, but which is spoken (and understood) with varying degrees of fluency by the local authorities who must cope with the legal requirements for airworthiness and the interpretation of those requirements. Indonesia is but one country, however some 80% of the world is in this category, and while North Americans or Europeans do not often think of air safety as a factor, it is a very present one in the developing world.
The fatality rate for air accidents is extremely low. 2004 was the safest year since the founding of ICAO in 1944; out of some 1.8 billion passengers carried, last year's death toll was 37 people. Contrast this with road transport in Quebec! However in August 2005 there have been five major accidents, four of which claimed at least 330 lives.
Aviation safety, by its very nature is an international preoccupation. ICAO has developed the international standards to which the world's governments are expected to ensure adherence, however effective enforcement is impeded by questions of sovereignty. Only recently has it been decided that the results of the safety audits that ICAO conducts will be published and circulated to all 189 contracting states in an attempt to shame countries into doing something about the often abysmal airworthiness situation. This is nonetheless a sensitive issue particularly in the developing world where countries will feel under attack, without at the same time being given the means to overcome their deficiencies.
Is privatization ('liberalization') a guarantee of higher standards? Possibly, if outside investors insist on better standards in order to improve the bottom line. Some countries such as the U.S. and France have simply refused landing rights to airlines that cannot prove that they (and their home countries) meet certain standards.
Another point illustrated in Safe Skies is that many countries do not initially comprehend the immense investment that must be made in the purchase and installation of aviation (or other) systems, along with the training of nationals to run the systems. Much of the infrastructure may be donated. Training generally can be done in-country by foreign consultants (who will be paid in U.S. dollars or equivalently stable currency), or senior staff will have to be sent abroad. Either way it is a drain on the exchequer – and in the latter case, there is the danger that the newly qualified staff will seek more remunerative or challenging positions outside his/her country. Thus, you find instances of top quality equipment unused because there is no one trained to operate or maintain it.
Colin deliberately chose Bhutan, one of the world's least developed countries, as the example of a country to which access was limited to 4-wheel drive not so long ago. Suddenly the government decides it needs an airline, but that decision cannot be taken without due consideration of the cultural impact that easier access for foreign tourists and business persons will have on centuries of culture. But this begs the question of whether many developing nations need a national airline – in most cases, it is a matter of prestige rather than real need. On the other hand, this is a difficult judgment call; when one Wednesday Nighter first visited Singapore, it was a backwater. Today not only is the country a major economic force, but Singapore Airlines is one of the finest and most successful in the world.
Colin has created a fictitious organization, based in Chicago, responsible for the maintenance of air safety standards throughout the world. This organization is immensely successful as long as it remains totally apolitical, however, as the story unfolds, the organization becomes politicized and the ability of the dedicated professional managers to do their jobs, increasingly limited. Unfortunately, this is an illustration of what is happening today, whether in international organizations, government authorities or industry associations, with the same disastrous consequences as in the novel.
Foreign Aid
Foreign aid, in the view of many, has been based for many years on a misguided concept of handouts. Misguided because if you spoon-feed a country, they will just go on being spoon-fed: Third World countries have to have the will to develop themselves. Many of them do not have this will, when they run out of money they simply ask for more. And often it suits the purposes of donor nations to maintain the state of thralldom created by this dependence, especially when much First World aid is tied to purchases by the recipient of goods and services originating in the donor country.
The initial response of the U.S. State Department to the offers of disaster aid from countries around the world is indicative of a luxury that most Third World recipients of foreign aid do not have. When asked why the U.S. had not responded to all the offers of international assistance, the State Department spokesman said, "We are evaluating the needs against the offers". Although this may have sounded arrogant, it was in retrospect a sensible answer – even had there not been such a crisis in disaster management as we have witnessed. [When doctors from neighboring U.S. states, not to mention Canada, were prevented from giving urgent medical assistance because they were not "federalized", how could the 1,100 doctors offered by Cuba have been put to work effectively? Ed.]
Often, although well intentioned, foreign aid is not suited to the recipient country's culture or the local availability of either human or natural resources. We need to learn how to give aid so that it is a tool for development, rather than a (sometimes useless) handout. Aid organized by locally-based NGOs or independent leaders of the community is much more likely to meet the local needs than something dreamed up in a meeting of international bureaucrats. As has been graphically illustrated in Louisiana, common sense is the most important asset in any form of aid – and often the least prevalent.
Corruption
Corruption is a huge problem in many countries, most often in former colonies. [Editor's note: not that corruption is unknown in the developed world, as recent events related to Hurricane Katrina have shown, but it is often in a more subtle form of cronyism.] Donor countries are complicit in the process, participating in the chain of corruption and justifying their actions by "that's the way it is done", offering huge grants or gifts to Third World countries in return for access to needed natural resources, turning a blind eye to the aid that winds up in corrupt leaders' bank accounts; and often the Third World becomes a dumping ground for equipment that is donated because it is not compliant with developed nation standards (i.e. aircraft that do not meet western noise standards are shipped off to Africa).
There is much hypocrisy surrounding the issue of corruption. Every country has it to some degree, including the corporate scandals of huge magnitude in western nations. The OECD signed an anti-corruption convention to prevent First World companies from obtaining privileges in the Third World. While some of the ambassadors at the time were calling for sanctions against the small baksheesh given to functionaries in the Third World to accelerate a process (As we all know, most of these people are so underpaid that they depend on these small gifts to support their families), the U.S. let it be known that there would be no objection to large gifts of money to maintain friendly heads of government in power. This is clearly an indicator of the collapse of good governance.
THE UNMASKING OF MULRONEY
Staying on topic of recently published books, the evening could not have been complete without reference to the just-published Peter Newman book The Secret Mulroney Tapes: Unguarded Confessions of a Prime Minister
One Wednesday Nighter interviewed Peter Newman some six weeks ago for a forthcoming documentary on Terry Mosher (Aislin) who was obsessed with Brian Mulroney (a political cartoonist's dream figure). He regrets that at the time of the interview he knew nothing about the bombshell that was about to be dropped. While the jury is out on Peter Newman's seemingly crass rush to publish in light of the former PM's illness, Mulroney's statement that he felt betrayed – after giving Newman 98 interviews – does seem a bit over the top. On the other hand, there was a written contract that specified that Mulroney had the right to see the book before publication. No matter whether the promised documents were made available to Newman or not, there was still a valid assumption that nothing based on the tapes and interviews would be published without Mulroney's review.
The profanity and crude remarks about political foes and former friends should not arouse much surprise – not only was Mulroney well known to be vindictive, but these expressions are used by many individuals, not to mention leaders. The single quotation that seems to have annoyed most people is Mulroney's claim that "You cannot name a Canadian prime minister who has done as many significant things as I did, because there are none."
Probably the most accurate comment about the book has been that "the people who like him now will like him better; the people who loathe him now will loathe him more". However much one may dislike Mulroney, it is undeniable that he made important contributions to Canada's well-being: especially the NAFTA and the acid rain treaty; he also contributed significantly to ending South African apartheid, to the creation of La Francophonie and to improved relations with the G-7 and Russia. Was the introduction of GST a good move? Wednesday Nighters' opinions vary as much as they do outside the room.
[Editor's note: The National Post piece by historian Michael Bliss is worth reading, whether or not one agrees with his views. We were particularly amused by the comment that "Perhaps the most appropriate political role for a social-climbing, glad-handing, profane Irishman -- also a sober, hard-working family man -- would have been in American municipal politics. Brian Mulroney would have had a more secure place in history, and more respect from his constituents, if he had been mayor of Boston in the 1940s."]
Hurricane Katrina and the aftermath
The topic of Katrina arose in a number of contexts this evening, particularly in the context of lack of leadership. Wednesday Nighters, like the rest of the world, remain dismayed by the confusion and mismanagement exhibited at every level of government,- municipal, state and federal -, the bungling by FEMA amidst revelations of the cronyism that permitted incompetents to rule the day, the new horror stories each day of wasteful and stupid bureaucratic decisions, the "blame game" that has started amidst frantic attempts to shore up president Bush's image, rumors of Haliburton's involvement in the no-bid contracts, Karl Rove (!!!) officially in charge of reconstruction, and the dangerously precipitate talk of undertaking the rebuilding New Orleans without effective planning or any notable consideration of the need to restore the shore line, wetlands and outer islands. However, there was no concentrated discussion of the week's developments, perhaps because it is difficult to absorb just how badly things are being (mis)managed, or to engage in semi-civil discourse on the topic.
[Editor's note: The one good to come out of the situation is that U.S. and world media have been galvanized and are not likely to let go of this bone. We applaud particularly the New York Times, Washington Post, Boston Globe, TIME, New Yorker (see New Yorker for devastating commentary on Trent Lott and Mississippi gambling casinos), – and of course the Picayune Times -, and the valiant anchors and reporters of the television networks among other persistent critics. As Frank Rich said in his biting op-ed piece: "You know the world has changed when the widely despised news media have a far higher approval rating (77 percent) than the president (46 percent), as measured last week in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll."]
Hurricane Katrina
With the bursting of the levees and flooding of the major part of New Orleans, Katrina has become probably the greatest natural disaster to touch the U.S.
news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/]
Footnote on Disaster Relief
In the week following the disaster, there has been unrelenting criticism of the failures of President Bush, the federal government and FEMA to quickly address the acute problems. (see: wednesday-night.com/gwbush.asp)
Despite President Bush's (ungracious) statement on ABC's "Good Morning America" that the United States could take care of itself [the actual quote is: "this country's going to rise up and take care of it,"], there has been an amazing outpouring of offers of assistance from other nations.
Oil
The end of suburbia?
While oil constitutes an important "head wind", in Peter Perkins
Hedge funds
JACQUES CLÉMENT: REPORT ON THE ECONOMY
www.wednesday-night.com/Jacques-Report.asp
Near-term trading Range Outlook Wed Sep 7th, 2005
- Canadian Dollar: Over 85¢ U.S.
- Euro: $1.2450 U.S. - $1.2650 U.S. (weak U.S. dollar)
- Crude oil: $63.00 U.S. - $ 67.00 U.S. (lack of refining capacity)
- Gold:- $445.00 U.S. - $ 450.00 U.S (weak U.S. dollar)
- Dow-Jones: D.J.: 10,900 – 11,000 before year-end (less exposure on
energy prices)
- The T.S.X :11,000 before year end
See Martin, vs Chrétien .
We remind you that given the devoted following generated by Jacques Clément's Reports on the Economy, they are now published on their own special pages and are linked from each week's summary page.
UNITED STATES
Current Beige Book
July 27, 2005 Fed reports growth in 11 of 12 regions Beige Book: Retail mixed, jobs improve, price pressure up
Note
Wednesday-Night creates charts and follows stocks, including timely related financial news items, in which Wednesday Nighters are interested and in order to demonstrate a service that could eventually be developed and marketed. Wednesday Nighters are invited to participate and help to test the service.
see WN Flip charts
QUOTES of the EVENING from recent Wednesday Nights
From #1228
From #1228
- In order to prove his point, he kills off the very attractive protagonist
- Air safety is an incredibly highly integrated and very complex system
- The greatest problem lies not in creating norms and standards, but in implementation of those standards
- They want to play in the big league, but they just don’t have the horsepower to do it
- CFIT (controlled flight into terrain) is the biggest category of air accidents over the last 50 years – last year (2004) was the first year since 1945 that there was not one CFIT incident
- One of the principal dividers between developed and developing countries is the capacity to absorb and use and install technology, but if we deny developing countries the opportunity to bring in aviation, we are denying them progress. Consequently we need to develop categories of aircraft that are easy both to operate and to maintain – appropriate technology
- When I went to the Gayety theatre in the 1940s, it was not to glimpse parts of the female anatomy, but to do research on a book that I knew I would write some 60 years later – all this was planned
- Nothing is ever off the record between a politician and a journalist
- History has to be served – history needs to know who this man was beyond the official biography
- We have a super power that is extremely weak and the UN unable to pick up the slack – there is no-one in charge
- Is it a lack of will that prevents the African Americans in Louisiana from improving their lot? Is it lack of will that prevents the Africans from developing a better life?
- I would hope that there would be time to do the necessary planning [for the new New Orleans], but what do you do with the people during the hiatus?
From #1227
- If you chart technical analysts, they are right 70% of the time, and if you chart fundamentalists, they are right 70% of the time
- Everyone in Montreal should have fire-after-earthquake insurance, which is much more likely than having your house fall down
- I was hoping that Bill and Hillary could have run against each other for the Democratic ticket
- You can be found on Google if you are a public figure, not if you are a private citizen … unless you are the son of David Nicholson
- Where is my quality of life going? I have a country house in St. Donat. If the price of oil continues to rise, there will be break-ins and things will be stolen. It will not be so much fun to have a country house
- Buying a company in a country where you are isolated by language is a very gutsy thing to do
- The rules in Singapore are far more liberal than the ones in this house
From #1226
- If prices go up, then prices will go down
- Modern medicine has become effective, but very dangerous
- Forget about large government organizations, people-to-people efforts work
- The simple fact is that you have to discover oil before you can produce it
From #1225
- Democracy is a mantra; nobody can afford be against democracy and as a result we have a lot of 'dumb democracy'. Dumb democracy can lead to dumping democracy in favor of totalitarianism
- Consumer debt is the elephant in the room
- Information overload leads to information under use
- In Alberta we are using natural gas – a relatively clean fuel – to extract oil – a relatively dirty fuel – There is something wrong with this picture
- If the Chinese and others who hold U.S. bonds decide to dump them, then we have a global crisis. This is the beginning of a fascinating new (economic) era of the cold war– the Chinese are growing strong enough to control the U.S. economy
From #1224
- Marketing in Asia is not yet regarded as something that results in a transaction
- Canada has developed a good level of medical care but not an expertise in certain areas that would develop 'medical tourism'
- The opportunity to make a living with two strong arms and a strong back is gone – at least in western Europe and North America
From #1223
- I am looking for meaning and I am looking for authority (in news sources)
- Blogging is a whole new field in P.R. ... You can respond and that is what blogging is all about
- There is the possibility for unrest (in China), but there is also obedience and I would bet that the obedience will win out
- The market doesn’t care (about the unpopularity of President Bush) There is money that has not been used since 2000, that is looking for a home. … We don’t see greed or euphoria; investors are (just) interested in where Nortel is (currently)
From #1222
- The worker and the taxpayer will suffer so that the shareholder may retain as many benefits as possible – this is Capitalism at work
- It’s the same fundamental issue. The U.S. wants to run the U.N. like a joint stock company
- Why bother (to reform financing of water infrastructures)? The middle class is covered, current arrangements only inconvenience women and the poor … these people don't have very much political power
- 1.2 billion people do not have water delivered daily … public sin … but one has to look at the sins of the private sector
- Carbon trading will certainly enhance American business support for Kyoto – you keep polluting in return for money, which is better than polluting and not paying money
- W W W W-N World on Water is Well done Water Works page
From #1221
- Never mistake the callers for the listeners
- Why can't Canadian banks take a small percentage of their obscene profits and be socially conscious? In other countries, banks actually take risks to invest in the community in which they reside
- Humor is about what makes us uncomfortable; we laugh about what is most important to us as a society
- Things which were taboo are no longer taboo. Is murder next?
From #1220
- Roe vs. Wade is not a theological issue. It is an issue of rights
- In our society, I think that it is unacceptable that we think nothing of terminating a life by abortion but don’t permit the ending of a miserable life (through assisted suicide)
-
If you make it to a palliative care unit, you should have that choice (assisted suicide)
-
Interest rates are low, unemployment is low, but most people feel that they are just treading water
From #1219
-
One of the things that J.K Rowling has done has been to make kids fans of reading ... to take them away from the tube
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Investors are shrugging off oil prices and the market wants to go up
-
From an economic point of view, it would be a lot healthier if the money flowed to venture capital instead of to hedge funds
-
Those that will be negatively affected will be affected, but not because they were in income trusts. Income trusts were never meant for capital appreciation and the fact that they have become a capital appreciation tool is the problem
-
Outsourcing is looked upon as a problem, but has not yet struck Canadians as being the first step to the total elimination of all manufacturing in this country
From #1218
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Does the motivation of the whistleblower come into consideration? There are situations that should become public knowledge for the good of an institution, its clients and/or the public
-
There is an argument for a re-evaluation of George Bush senior's presidency in the way that he handled the fall of the Soviet Empire and the reunification of Germany
-
Everyone is talking about the price of gas, but when will consumers realize the impact of rising oil prices on everything else?
-
How about a woman who was CEO of an airline (GO), got bought out and lost her job; an American in Britain who then took on the job of leading London's successful bid for the 2012 Olympics ( until she was replaced by Lord Coe) – and they won. That's pretty impressive!
From #1217
- You don't judge societies by the way they treat people they like, the test is how they treat people they despise (Margaret Somerville on CBC)
- Where there is freedom, there will always be things going wrong
From #1216
- Should independent courts or accountable elected officials be defining the system?
- Almost all decisions of minority versus majority rights derive from legislation
- If you want to cut down 10,000 trees in Northern Ontario, you have to do an impact analysis, but if the government wants to introduce an early retirement programme for doctors, there is no impact analysis on patient care
- (I would love to see) union representatives and spokespersons standing up to say 'my job is not to protect you in your current job, my job is to help you be afforded the greatest opportunities whether in your current capacity or in some other capacity you may have'.
From #1215
- Both health and education require de-bureaucratization
- Medicare is a monopoly and monopoly is inefficient
- Small accommodations help integrate people into the community and create fewer martyrs
- Why is health care one area where we say everyone must receive uniform treatment? ... We know that people with influence are bypassing the system, so it is the height of hypocrisy to say that the system cannot be touched
From #1214
- It is not a crime to peddle influence, particularly if you don’t have it
- Very few people have the integrity to leave when it is time
- If we allow parallel
(healthcare) systems, how do we guarantee that the medical practitioners will not all flow to the 'private' – and more remunerative – sector?
From #1213
- You can’t have a political union without monetary union. The question is, can the euro survive - the big mistake is to have expanded to forty-five countries
- (the European Union) have put too much emphasis on inflation control at the expense of economic growth
- What matters to the world is that Europe is not contributing to the world to the extent that it has the potential. This is the climate in which Europe will just be left behind in the world economic race
- At this (the current) level of interest rates, stocks are quite cheap. ... Stocks will outperform bonds
From #1212
- ... (hourly wages and benefits which at) 38 Euros (in Germany, may be compared to the equivalent of ), 28 Euros in the United States and 1½ Euros in China. You can see where your next car is coming from. ... Capital is mobile, labour is not
- Whoever wins (the expected autumn German Election) will be unable to deal with the issues. That is why I am beginning to worry about the Euro
- China will revalue the Yuan to a basket of currencies, weakening the U.S. dollar and strengthening the Asian currencies
From #1211
- Bombardier is selling the government a glider
- The Market thinks that the Fed is not going to raise interest rates very much more – they sniff that the end is near – and that is why the Market is going up
- Some 80% of referenda fail because people prefer to say No than Yes, suggesting that political strategists should start thinking about double negatives in order to achieve Yes
From #1210
- We see a risk on the horizon for Canada and it is the tar sands because it takes our minds off productivity growth
- In the last election, we said what we stood for and nobody believed us
From #1209
- The rest of the world is buying up [American] assets at the rate of almost 2 billion dollars a day – this cannot continue without consequences
- Extremism comes from educated people who have learned to use the disaffection of millions of people
From #1208
- Everything has combined against Martin, including his own ineptitude
- Harper is notably 'absent' on a number of fundamental issues – that's why people think he has a hidden agenda
Past Quotes Best or All
Notes by Herbert Bercovitz OWN & Edited by Diana Thébaud Nicholson OWN
Sunday Aug 7, 2005 See the Latest CV on Diana Nicholson pdf French ver.
W-N Links for #1228
 Stephen S. Poloz VP EDC Economics Weekly Commentary
Costly Katrina - September 14, 2005 The costs of Hurricane Katrina in terms of lives and infrastructure appear to be immense. Yet, for all that, we may be months away from being able to make serious calculations of the economic fallout, and the possible implications for Canadian exporting companies. Past issues | his WN page
2005 Notes for #1228
Wednesday Night is pleased to report that his wife, Phyllis, has let us know that Robert Galbraith has arrived in Afghanistan and his first piece has been published in the Toronto Star of September 15 the first of a series 
Phyllis says that he is "OK, but rather tired And he wants you to know that he is thinking of you and to please say hello to everyone tonight (Wednesday #1228)." We look forward to more published stories & photos and, when he gets the time and uplinks, Robert's personal reports on his coverage of the role of the Canadian troops and the lead-up to the elections on Sunday.
Many will remember that Robert has spoken passionately of the danger to Canadian troops as being one of his principal reasons for reporting on Afghanistan.
The Search For Champlain by Robert J. Galbraith.doc
Thursday Sep 15, 2005 nyt Two Major Airlines Seen Near Filing for Bankruptcy
By MICHELINE MAYNARD
Northwest and Delta have been hit hard by the spike in jet fuel prices and by the relentless competition in the industry.
Tuesday, September 13, 2005 gaz
New Orleans must rise again
Despite its geography, economic realities dictate that New Orleans be rebuilt - if for no other reason than to provide workers for the port
see more on WN
Time to Fix our clocks?
see also wn MedicalNotes
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Andy Nulman 
Brian Mulroney wn ;)
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